https://gnosly.com/feed/bonds/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3209@BobgonzaleBobbob gonzales<p>Swiss 10-year bonds yield roughly 0.5%. France is near 5%. That is a gap of about 450 basis points — the price investors now demand to lend to France rather than Switzerland. </p><p>France’s spread over German Bunds has also moved above 150 bps, a crisis-era warning signal.</p>https://x.com/BobgonzaleBob/status/21128998111584747970.01102026-10-21T16:39:27.668011+00:002x.comfrancebondsswitzerlandeconomy3061https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVKHLTgWkAAimMt?format=jpgImage2026-10-21T16:39:29.306588+00:003206@ThierryBretonThierry Breton<p>Source: Thierry Breton (X)</p>https://x.com/ThierryBreton/status/21128395424201690550.00502026-10-21T13:13:29.485257+00:002x.comfrancebondseconomy3058https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVJQXQxXQAACikD?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:13:30.516380+00:003203@Frenchie_Frenchie<p>Source: Frenchie (X)</p>https://x.com/Frenchie_/status/21128346447898872350.00352026-10-21T13:00:16.004749+00:002x.comfrancebondseconomy3055https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVJL6VXWMAA5igx?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:00:17.589813+00:003115https://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/Jakob Riemann, CFE<p>Source: Jakob Riemann (LinkedIn)</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-10-20T09:50:00.469032+00:001linkedin.combondsjapaneconomy2976https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHHJWGpWI9ySQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaFYtlRnKsAk-/0/1792489706903?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=bc7C7FhvSlfaPtNsOMsa_pxed3lyKh4mZ_m5_TV6c5MView image2026-10-20T09:50:01.146787+00:002912@josh_wingroveJosh Wingrove<p>Source: Josh Wingrove (X)</p>https://x.com/josh_wingrove/status/21107170560603754210.00502026-10-16T08:39:16.830735+00:002x.comchinabondseconomy2732https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUrF-ebWUAApt7v?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-16T08:39:17.848759+00:002898https://www.linkedin.com/in/philipp-e-b-631a921a7/Philipp E. B.<p>The 10-year Treasury yield has fallen toward 5.06%, about 27 basis points below its recent peak near 5.33%, despite 6.3% producer inflation, ongoing energy disruption and a recent Fed rate hike. The bond market may be reassessing what expensive financing means for investment, profitability and growth.</p><p><strong>What the Bond Market Is Telling Us</strong></p><p>Between October 5 and October 15, official Treasury data show:</p><p>• Nominal 10-year yields fell 21 basis points</p><p>• Real 10 year yields fell 17 basis points</p><p>• Implied inflation compensation fell just 4 basis points</p><p>Roughly 81% of the decline came through real yields, consistent with concern about future growth and investment returns. On October 15, the 10 year fell about 10 basis points while the 2 year fell less than 5. This bull flattening suggests demand for duration protection before markets fully price aggressive Fed easing.</p><p><strong>Why the AI Selloff Matters</strong></p><p>Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Meta are spending enormous sums on AI infrastructure. Oracle and CoreWeave face acute scrutiny over debt and cash flow, and their credit protection costs have risen sharply. OpenAI and Anthropic are major buyers whose commitments depend on revenue growth and funding.</p><p>The stress is international: KOSPI plunged 7.57%, Samsung fell 9.5% and SK Hynix 11.1%. AI spending hasn't collapsed, but higher financing costs and weaker expected returns may eventually force cuts in capital spending, equipment orders and hiring.</p><p><strong>The Larger Macroeconomic Problem</strong></p><p>The Fed raised rates into an energy shock that tightening cannot resolve. Diesel producer prices are up 115.2% annually, while freight costs, refinancing burdens and household purchasing power remain under pressure. Higher rates cannot restore refining capacity or reopen shipping routes; they can only suppress consumption, investment and credit, especially among leveraged borrowers.</p><p>This echoes the 2000 tech downturn and the pre-2008 credit deterioration, when yields fell as investors reassessed growth. Today's rally confirms nothing yet, and broad credit stress remains milder than that facing individual borrowers. But if spreads keep widening, activity weakens, and AI valuations slip, the Treasury bid could become much more persistent. In that case, I believe the 10-year could move toward 4.70% to 4.90% over the next several months.</p><p>Falling Treasury yields don't necessarily mean easier financing: government debt can rally while credit gets costlier for vulnerable companies. My read is that the 10-year is beginning to recognize the damage from restrictive rates and persistent energy inflation. If that deterioration broadens, yields may have further to fall.EndGameMacro</p>https://lnkd.in/p/d-64vpgj0.00652026-10-16T05:25:13.644948+00:001linkedin.comeconomyusbonds2718https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEiS3ZsIkTflA/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaFBmIS9GQAg-/0/1792101877229?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=2lBcF6IjHNszLi4d8ScA3uEgFRXd0MeYT7QsAzk8VkkView image2026-10-16T05:25:14.140967+00:002703<p>• Bond markets are pushing up borrowing costs, potentially reducing the number of benchmark interest-rate hikes needed to get inflation under control. </p><p>• Yields have surged to multiyear highs, tightening financial conditions and delivering some of the economic restraint central banks would otherwise seek through higher policy rates. </p><p>• Traders are now pricing in a combined 539 basis points of rate hikes across eight major economies, down from 717 basis points in September, as concerns over fiscal spending and AI-related debt issuance push investors to demand more compensation.</p>https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-11/bond-selloff-may-mean-fewer-rate-hikes-from-global-central-banks?ref=gnosly0.00252026-10-12T05:14:47.090983+00:0014bloomberg.comusbondseconomy2522IMAGE/media/content/2703/g-20261012-bloomber-on-rate-hikes.webpg-20261012-bloomber-on-rate-hikes.webpwebp2026-10-12T05:16:45.022724+00:002701https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruth-carson-3a22897/Ruth Carson<p>Bond markets are starting to do some of the lifting for central banks worldwide by pushing up borrowing costs, potentially reducing the number of benchmark interest-rate hikes needed to bring inflation under control. </p><p>Yields have surged to multiyear highs after weeks of selling, tightening financial conditions even without further action from policymakers. Traders have responded by paring rate-hike expectations, with the amount priced into swaps across eight major economies falling by almost 200 basis points since mid-September, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. </p><p>Few signs suggest the bond selloff is abating, as concerns over fiscal spending from the US to Japan and France push investors to demand more compensation, while a slew of AI-related debt issuance soaks up capital. The higher borrowing costs are spilling into mortgages and junk credit, delivering some of the economic restraint central banks would otherwise seek through higher policy rates.</p><p>“The more tightening markets price, the tighter financial conditions become,” said Ken Orchard, head of international fixed income at T. Rowe Price, which oversees $1.9 trillion. “And the tighter financial conditions become, the less tightening central banks may ultimately need — or be able — to deliver.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dkv-M3sc0.00552026-10-12T05:10:53.208653+00:001linkedin.combondsuseconomy2521https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFhW551AflHSw/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aEtTdTrIcAc-/0/1791761438205?e=1793232000&v=beta&t=3sjNgV2kFZCeeQOm1wge39ZrM_ae9WK6Hd1sNJdPS-0View image2026-10-12T05:10:53.509290+00:002611@StefanFSchubertStefan Schubert<p>On this metric, the US comes apart more from European countries like France, Italy, and Britain than recent reporting may have suggested.</p>https://x.com/StefanFSchubert/status/21088672904272447450.00402026-10-10T14:16:13.133928+00:002x.comusbondsukfrancedebt2430https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUQy64oXwAARb6W?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-10T14:16:15.043437+00:002471@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>Either this is being manipulated, or there is a fight going on between Asian investors selling US bonds and US investors buying them. Not confirmed, but an interesting coincidence.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21082081594458976430.00502026-10-08T15:22:23.489637+00:002x.comusmarketbonds2284https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUHbXSpa8AEU61Y?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T15:22:23.811005+00:002437@FTFinancial Times<p>Source: Financial Times (X)</p>https://ft.trib.al/oL3KZkt0.00402026-10-08T06:04:50.568558+00:002x.cominflationbondsdebtus2245https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBxNEEWkAAa0Rd?format=jpg&name=smallLine chart showing US borrowing costs at multi-decade highs2026-10-08T06:04:52.110229+00:002411@TheStalwartJoe Weisenthal<p>Source: Joe Weisenthal (X)</p>https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/21078211163832323170.00502026-10-07T16:06:47.162135+00:002x.comusbonds2222https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUB8InEWIAAykWi?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T16:06:47.658127+00:002303@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>The bond market is breaking down.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21071385961511160510.00502026-10-05T16:01:30.424941+00:002x.comusyieldbonds2125https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4POE6bwAAwVCr?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T16:01:30.697215+00:002279@ericdor_econoEric Dor<p>Source: Eric Dor (X)</p>https://x.com/ericdor_econo/status/21069976614170216050.00402026-10-05T12:56:16.939098+00:002x.combanksfrancebonds2101https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT2PFvvWEAA3isD?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T12:56:17.200832+00:002272https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-runkevicius/Dan Runkevicius<p>Never in this century have bonds been more interesting than they are today. But this time it's not Treasuries.On Friday, the extra yield investors demanded to hold French rather than German 10-year bonds hit 159 basis points, its widest level since late 2011.France and Germany issue their own debt, and investors price each country's risks separately. But both use the euro and follow the same ECB interest-rate policy.So what gives?The best explanation so far is that the market is pricing in the risk of a Frexit after the election.French five-year CDS under the 2014 contract costs 86.6 basis points, versus 35 under the 2003 contract. The reason is that the 2014 rules cover euro redenomination more clearly, while the 2003 rules don't. (H/t Emmanuel Ferry.)That means the 51.6-basis-point gap is a proxy for euro-exit risk. The last time the gap grew so aggressively was during the 2017 election.Japan is another possible source of selling. Japanese investors held about $145 billion of French bonds in July. That's roughly 4% of France's marketable government debt and 6.6% of Japan's overseas bond holdings.After currency hedging, a 4.9% French bond yield works out to about 3.4% for Japanese investors, not much more than they can earn at home.Not surprisingly, their French holdings have already fallen 2.5% since year-end. If more investors decide the extra yield isn't worth the risk, Japan could help push French yields higher in the near term.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dCxtYKFN0.00602026-10-05T10:07:13.736764+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondseconomy2094https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQH9IxU95nWGOQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaEK.py8JYAk-/0/1791185559185?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=CqPYID6N_46xWtrUcs20shh7vHZ5sZQm2YPQjBLrEW8View image2026-10-05T10:07:14.853205+00:002261https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/Wim Grommen<p>Japan Just Broke The French Bond MarketOne Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper. Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street. The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis. France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit. When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust. If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction. We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement: Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like. Post by Stern Drew on X</p>https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/0.00602026-10-05T09:00:18.607041+00:001linkedin.combondsjapanfrance2085https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQG_F_PlZzPnhQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaELAmJwJkAk-/0/1791186068397?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=xZWA8CHpnS2r9ADuNBieRYweiQD_aoT7QHI9bUJZAEAView image2026-10-05T09:00:19.680600+00:002260https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruth-carson-3a22897/Ruth Carson<p>🇫🇷 French Bonds at Risk of More Japanese Selling on Outsized Stake 🇫🇷Japanese investors hold far more French bonds than benchmark weightings recommend, raising the threat of a new wave of selling that could deepen France’s debt rout.A Bloomberg analysis estimates investors in the Asian nation own ¥23 trillion ($145 billion) worth of French bonds as of July. That’s 6.6% of the Asian nation’s total overseas debt holdings, making them the most overweight in the euro region relative to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.France is facing a bond crisis just as sentiment for the nation’s debt has soured on missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction. dent sentiment on the nation’s debt. While Japanese investors have remained steadfast holders of French paper through multiple episodes of political and market turmoil, the risks of further selling may be higher this time around.That’s because rising yields at home are making Japanese government debt more attractive, boosting incentives to repatriate money and potentially eroding a support pillar for the European debt. Among investors already positioned for further drops in French bonds is Fivestar Asset Management Co.’s Hideo Shimomura.“This is just the beginning,” Shimomura said of France’s debt selloff. “If the European Central Bank just leaves things alone, there are concerns that, judging from the European debt crisis, France’s 10-year government bond yield could rise as high as 7%." Read More: https://lnkd.in/gc-CU_f6 Reporting with Masaki Kondo in Tokyo.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dsPUGsxt0.00802026-10-05T08:53:01.296137+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondsjapan2084https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQEF5zYp_MMpIQ/feedshare-shrink_1280/B56aEKyfLUHQAQ-/0/1791182369710?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=FXL5405HoEL7RQUmJIkc-LlUg0u7Qag3WfUzhiL4W7QView image2026-10-05T08:53:01.974784+00:002155@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>France is where the developed-world debt problem is cracking first. Its 10-year yield has climbed to 4.7%, the highest since 2008, and the gap over German bonds just blew out to the widest since the eurozone debt crisis. The setup is textbook. Government debt is 119% of GDP, the most since 1978, the deficit is running over 5%, and a paralyzed political system cannot pass the 54 billion euros of cuts needed to slow it. So France has to sell a record pile of new debt next year while refinancing cheap pandemic-era bonds at much higher rates. Interest costs compound from here. This is the bond market doing the job politicians will not. France is just the first to crack. Every government that borrowed freely into a world of higher rates is on the same road, the US included. The era of free money is over, and the bond market is sending the bill.<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03); color: rgb(231, 233, 234);">France</span></p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21060304565546029580.00502026-10-03T06:18:26.254018+00:002x.comfrancebondsdebt1957https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTofii-XwAAuq52?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T06:18:27.242712+00:002144@AnthonyML_Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie<p>Markets now value French debt as if it were that of a BB+-rated issuer, well below the rank assigned by rating agencies. "Welcome to junk bonds" (junk bond in good French)!</p>https://x.com/AnthonyML_/status/21060402910904855750.00602026-10-03T05:20:17.114088+00:002x.comfrancedebtbonds1946https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTonGadWoAAAw8P?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T05:20:19.121028+00:002113https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/Wim Grommen<p>French 10-year bond yields are the highest relative to similarly-dated German bunds since the European debt crisis 14 years ago. France's borrowing costs have risen above those of Italy and Greece, with the nation facing one of the biggest fiscal deficits in the EU.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00802026-10-02T07:15:52.320970+00:001linkedin.comeubondsfinance1920https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFcORAFexfb8g/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaD6_rRJIIAk-/0/1790917391671?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=L-gJ4vXu3sYwn3VJKg3QuuF66sn5rB8Fnq1EQXb0YvgView image2026-10-02T07:15:52.846700+00:002091@LarkDavisLark Davis<p>US 10-Year Treasury yield hits a multi-decade high, touching 5.34% intraday (highest since early 2002) as the sovereign bond selloff intensifies. • US 10Y: intraday high ~5.34% (highest since 2002) • UK 30Y: &gt;6.00% (highest since 1998) • French 10Y: ~4.92–4.96%, nearing 5.00%</p>https://x.com/LarkDavis/status/21058857095045247640.00402026-10-02T05:37:18.595985+00:002x.comtreasurybondsfinance1894https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTmb5ALXkAAZUOP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T05:37:19.863826+00:002075https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>The US corporate high-yield bond market is under serious pressure. The effective yield on US high-yield corporate bonds is up to 8.03%, its highest since April 2025.This figure has surged +104 basis points over the last 5 weeks, marking its largest 5-week increase in 17 months.As a result, high-yield corporate bond spreads are up to 3.02%, their highest since early-April. This represents the extra yield investors demand, on average, to hold corporate junk bonds over Treasuries.Meanwhile, average spreads for CCC-rated corporate bonds, the lowest-quality tier, have soared +400 basis points since January, to 968 basis points, their highest since November 2023.US credit market stress is intensifying.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00442026-10-01T15:49:11.297353+00:001linkedin.comcredityieldbonds1890IMAGE/media/content/2075/g-20261001-us-corporate-bonds.jpgg-20261001-us-corporate-bonds.jpgjpg2026-10-01T15:50:50.480671+00:002039@LitestLitest<p>Japan's long-term bond yields continue to rise. • 10Y yield hits 3.11%, its highest level in about 30 years. • 20Y yield hits 3.96%, also near a 30-year high. Japan's bond yields are now at levels not seen in decades.</p>https://x.com/Litest/status/21055700317950525890.00502026-10-01T09:11:49.017594+00:002x.combondsjapanyields1839https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTh8xrqWoAAxsPV?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T09:11:49.463669+00:002038https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>Another all-time high in the spread between French and Swiss 10-year yields. The spread is widening almost as fast as it did during the 2011 euro crisis. Source: Karel Mercx@KarelMercx</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dyTKUD920.00602026-10-01T09:07:00.435106+00:001linkedin.combondsfinanceyields1838https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEvIJxjd-HOww/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaDu8v1mGgAg-/0/1790715297403?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=wXAE9_B_pmttgFyXfDZG6tE-j59EakzXWbtFazLN-nwView image2026-10-01T09:07:01.137438+00:002005@Investor_NICK_Investor_NICKAugust PCE comes in cooler than expectations though some of that is due to their new “methodology”. Yet yields continue to make new highs. Think we can officially say bonds are the worst financial instruments (even worse than AMZN and ORCL) right now … also #tophttps://x.com/Investor_NICK_/status/21053507969636438180.00602026-09-30T19:30:24.381765+00:002x.comtopbondspce1804https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTe1ZCFWIAA45Eb?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T19:30:24.703668+00:001983@TedPillowsTedUS 30-year yield rises to its highest level in 24 years. Insane.https://x.com/TedPillows/status/21053182588280139090.00402026-09-30T15:44:46.044759+00:002x.comusyieldbonds1779https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTeXukTWUAAfZkR?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T15:44:47.192547+00:001974@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p> Oracle's Credit Default Swaps just jumped to highest level in history, while the company remains one downgrade away from junk status. S&amp;P has already cut Oracle's credit rating to BBB-, just one notch above junk. Oracle is borrowing tens of billions of dollars to build AI data centers for deals like Stargate and OpenAI. Some of Oracle's long term bonds now yield over 8%. One more downgrade puts Oracle's debt in junk territory. If that happens, $120 billion of Oracle's bonds get automatically pulled from investment grade indexes. Many bond funds are only allowed to hold investment grade debt. A downgrade forces them to sell Oracle's bonds all at once, pushing prices down and yields even higher. This isn't just happening with Oracle only, It's becoming industry wide problem.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21052659587011056550.00602026-09-30T14:47:32.497615+00:002x.comcreditbondsoracle1770https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTdoM-4a4AAf9Sm?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-09-30T14:47:33.070113+00:001939@TiefseherDaniel D. Eckert<p>The yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds has climbed to the highest level since 2002. When the U.S. debt-to-GDP ratio was at 57% – half as high as today</p>https://x.com/Tiefseher/status/21050037719273390500.00502026-09-30T06:02:41.152909+00:002x.comyieldtreasurybonds1730https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTZ5xdHWAAAkpGj?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T06:02:41.423966+00:001863@themarketsniperFrancis Hunt - The Market Sniper, CMT (MBA)Folks may need to take this Gold H&S's seriously, DDE risk is climbing on BONDS collapse. A return to Falling Wedge lows is target implied and even a possible new low on crisis/liquidity is higher probability than a new high this side of xmas right now. AI/Tech cracks next.https://x.com/themarketsniper/status/21044735194719725730.00502026-09-28T08:03:12.377712+00:002x.combondsgoldai-tech1642https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTSXg2WWsAAclOP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T08:03:13.521673+00:001855@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>Japanese 2 year bond yields just hit a new 31-year high of 1.975%. This means investors are pricing in Bank of Japan rates near 2% over the next couple of years. That's roughly 75 bps more hikes from the current 1.25% rate. Japan looks fully focused on ending its era of cheap money.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21044718501014163860.00502026-09-28T07:35:12.263385+00:002x.combondsjapaneconomy1636IMAGE/media/content/1855/g-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgg-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgjpg2026-09-28T07:36:46.749916+00:001779Investors panicked in 1994 and cheered in 2016. But, they’re now debating how to handle 2026.https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/stocks-are-defying-surging-bond-yields-heres-what-history-says-could-come-next-7d13bb2d0.00502026-09-27T06:04:59.888631+00:0023wsj.cominvestingstocksbonds1774@BullTheoryioBull TheoryBREAKING: Nasdaq Composite just posted its highest ever weekly close, despite US 20-year and 30-year bond yields hitting multi decade highs.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21039192638076153230.00402026-09-27T05:46:39.031251+00:002x.combondsnasdaqfinance1548https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTKfXzfacAAaEVU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T05:46:39.255447+00:001712@puckrinNicOracle's long-term bonds just crossed an all time high of 8.3%. Their 5 year CDS spreads also broke record highs, skyrocketing 16% to 227bps. Bond & credit investors are quietly telling equity investors something about the company - and it's not good.https://x.com/puckrin/status/21037494125183263900.00502026-09-26T07:34:50.807170+00:002x.comcreditinvestorsbonds1497IMAGE/media/content/1712/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-26T07:35:09.237685+00:001689@Callum_ThomasCallum ThomasStocks are beating Bonds like nothing we've seen in over 50 years 👀 This is starting to get extreme. It's stretched well beyond average, and the thing is, extremes don't last...https://x.com/Callum_Thomas/status/21036292401092567700.00402026-09-26T07:08:57.219650+00:002x.comstocksbondseconomy1479https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTGXpQWWYAAmR5N?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-26T07:08:58.291122+00:001674@BullTheoryioBull Theory🚨 There is no stopping US bond yields. The 30-year bond yield just hit a new 22-year high at 5.525% Yields are now moving like AI stocks, straight up, no matter what gets thrown at them.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21034932345678848860.00402026-09-25T16:21:37.649868+00:002x.combondsfinanceyields1469IMAGE/media/content/1674/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-25T16:22:12.868100+00:001669@GordonGekkoGordon<p>Japanese bond yields are going PARABOLIC Historically, we all know what comes next</p>https://x.com/GordonGekko/status/21034264440347485320.00402026-09-25T11:37:22.297918+00:002x.combond-yieldsjapanesefinancebondsus-bonds1464https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTDfM2FWcAACLlw?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T11:37:22.513148+00:001631@realTimHackTim Hack<p>Even though gold and silver investors are taking a beating right now, I see the latest developments in the bond market as the missing spark we have been waiting for. We are witnessing a global bond sell-off that confirms the erosion of confidence in the fiat monetary system. I still expect gold and silver to reach new all-time highs by Christmas.</p>https://x.com/realTimHack/status/21031480025336180260.00402026-09-25T07:03:03.394767+00:002x.combondsilvergoldbondsbond-marketus-bonds1431https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_h9eYXYAE6sYn?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:03:03.665272+00:001629@silvertradeSilverTrade🚨 US 10-YEAR YIELD EXPLODES TO 5.208% ⚠️ ⚡️ BOND PANIC ⁉️ 10-YEAR YIELD HAS RISEN 30 BASIS POINTS IN LAST 2 DAYS ‼️ 📈 10-YEAR YIELD NOW TRADING AT HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE THE RUN UP TO THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS ⚠️https://x.com/silvertrade/status/21033236749965107800.00502026-09-25T07:00:05.890645+00:002x.comyieldbondsfinance1429https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTCAuxuXwAA8Q8l?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:00:06.282156+00:001628@cullenrocheCullen RocheLots of scary talk in bonds these days, but it's mostly recency bias. Since 1960 the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%. We're at 5% - below average. If you'd fallen asleep 20 years ago and woke up today you'd think nothing happened in the bond market the entire time. Ignore all the sovereign debt crisis talk. Inflation expectations are adjusting to something more historically normalized. Carry on.https://x.com/cullenroche/status/21031552426827165180.00502026-09-25T06:59:37.897727+00:002x.cominflationmarketsbonds1624@gaughenKevin GaughenSomeone on Bluesky asked me to explain why it’s bad for the USA to have these skyrocketing bond yield rates. I will copy and paste my explanation here: When a country’s yields go higher it means the world is losing faith it will repay its debt. Right now, Canada and Europe are selling off US bonds to minimize their risk exposure. They’re worried the USA will collapse or default. This is causing bond prices to drop, which causes yields to rise. A VERY clear message is being sent right now by our former allies. Think about it like this: if you need a car and you have good credit, a bank will give you a low interest rate on a car loan. If you have bad credit, the bank will give you a really high interest rate. Basically, risk is priced into the interest rate. It’s the same with bond yields. Make sense?https://x.com/gaughen/status/21032617087477232160.00702026-09-25T06:57:31.067702+00:002x.combondsfinanceeconomy1425https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTBJON6WAAA210o?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:57:31.275003+00:001620@Rebecca98869736Rebecca Fernandez<p>Interesting - US 2yr vs. Gold Chart&nbsp;</p>https://x.com/Rebecca98869736/status/21030495428203236340.00402026-09-25T06:41:08.827936+00:002x.cominterestingbondsgold1422https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-IaW3XkAAMyfl?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:41:09.089246+00:001616@nickgerli1Nick GerliU.S. real estate investment has collapsed by 50% over the last four years. The reason? It's now more profitable to sit on your couch and buy a 10-year government bond than to buy an investment property. 10-year yields are now 5.1%. While the single-family cap rate for rentals is 4.8%. For the first time in nearly two decades, buying real estate for cash flow has a negative opportunity cost v buying government bonds. And as a result, the number of people buying investment properties has plummeted by 50% over the last four years. This is having a massive price impact on certain markets. Track Cap Rates for your area at http://reventure.app/map.https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/21031359244942256940.00502026-09-25T06:36:23.118199+00:002x.cominvestmentbondsreal-estate1418https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_WXORWEAAUBP6?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:36:23.575828+00:001610@DKellerCMTDavid Keller, CMTNever confuse the top of the page with resistance. The 10-Year Treasury yield has pushed above 5%, its highest level in nearly two decades. 5% may FEEL high because investors haven't seen these levels in a long time. But there's nothing magical about 5%. From a technical perspective, the trend in rates remains higher. And that has implications far beyond the bond market.https://x.com/DKellerCMT/status/21031540035927738840.00402026-09-25T06:31:07.472463+00:002x.comtreasuryratesbonds1414https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_na4iWkAANTur?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:31:07.888085+00:001609@DhavalVJoshiDhaval JoshiUPDATE: The rise in the real bond yield is now the sharpest since 2022, making it increasingly likely that stocks will feel some pain.https://x.com/DhavalVJoshi/status/21030740919304031220.00402026-09-25T06:29:28.329256+00:002x.comstocksbondsfinance1413https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-b_nGXYAES49a?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:29:28.671184+00:001602https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterAbsolutely incredible.The US 10Y Note Yield is now up +70 basis points this month.We are now above 5.15% for the first time since June 2007.The bond market is trading like the Fed is hiking rates by 50 basis points at a time.Q4 is going to be interesting to say the least.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00402026-09-25T06:12:05.776492+00:001linkedin.commarketbondsfinance1408https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGlYFpzVA7lwg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDUZBXSHsAg-/0/1790269724699?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=zy8E3BBi0sUZKXmQEo4JqAAkUZfLaaV6tl5ESxqwdDwView image2026-09-25T06:12:06.221747+00:001600@BullTheoryioBull Theory🚨 THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD. Entire US bond yield curve is going parabolic. US01Y is at a 25-month high US02Y is at a 28-month high US05Y is at a 19-year high US10Y is at a 19-year high US20Y is also at a 22-year high US30Y is at a 19-year high Higher yields across the board mean higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and consumers, and that's bad news for both the economy and stocks.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21028082490158613960.00602026-09-25T06:00:12.642642+00:002x.comstocksbondseconomy1406https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS6seixb0AA7aLO?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:00:13.543818+00:001586@byHeatherLongHeather LongYikes. The 10-year bond yield climbed above 5.2% today for the first time since summer 2007. Wall Street may think this is ok, but it's jarring for Main Street. This is painful for many Americans. 1) Mortgage rates are back above 7% 2) Auto loan rates are rising swiftly now too 3) Personal loans have been a lifeline for many moderate-income Americans, but those rates are also climbing 4) Refinancing is dead. Any household or small biz hoping to refi a loan is struggling 5) Many banks are sitting on bonds that yield under 5%, so they're having to hedge their holdings (to avoid selling at losses) There's a lot of pressure building on the economy from higher borrowing costs.https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/21032476727526278400.00502026-09-25T05:29:51.731585+00:002x.comloansbondseconomy1382https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTA5uGgWcAAcTy3?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T05:29:51.936128+00:001383https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTA7ZeoW8AAwr1W?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T05:29:51.954742+00:001528@QTRResearchQuoth the RavenBONDS ARE ABOUT TO CRASH THE STOCK MARKET I’ve gone from saying the AI bubble *could* pop...to the statement that if the bond market keeps on like this, equity markets *will* get slaughtered. And I mean wrath of God type shit. My latest, no paywall:https://x.com/QTRResearch/status/21029167616915665370.00602026-09-24T06:02:32.611466+00:002x.comcrashbondsstock-market1339https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS8PWZIXAAACgN5?format=jpgImage2026-09-24T06:02:33.146143+00:001455@lngglobalLNG GlobalQatar Sells $3 Billion in Bonds as War Sends Deficit Soaringhttps://x.com/lngglobal/status/21023675454080492930.00602026-09-23T09:01:16.049236+00:002x.comdeficitbondsqatar1281https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2101980842348412928/VhzWq8B2?format=jpg&name=small2026-09-23T09:01:16.523981+00:001266https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterStocks are becoming more sensitive to sharp moves in the Treasury market:The 30-day correlation between the ICE BofA MOVE Index and the S&P 500 is up to -0.58, its highest since mid-June.The MOVE index, also called the "VIX of bonds," measures the yield volatility of 2Y, 5Y 10Y, and 30Y Treasuries.This means rapid increases in bond volatility are now translating into larger declines in stock prices.A similar phenomenon took place in March this year and in April 2025, when violent moves in the MOVE Index exacerbated market selloffs.The index has now surged +8.0% over the last week, to 80.7 points, near its highest level since mid-May.Bond volatility is again becoming a key driver of stocks.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00802026-09-20T19:40:15.353352+00:001linkedin.comstocksbondsvolatility1114https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHUbGojrRNpng/feedshare-shrink_480/B4DaC_rYZpGsAg-/0/1789922215750?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=TQdEjR_DRfzEmEVGS3iHur95qPsQegjklEW2qY5MxNkView image2026-09-20T19:40:15.638557+00:001055@jsbloklandjeroen bloklandYikes! The spread on 10-year French bonds versus German Bunds just hit 100 basis points. While many “experts” predict a collapse in the US dollar, I suspect the euro will be the first to crack. Based on the historical relationship between the French-German bond spread and the euro, the latter should already be well below parity against the US dollar. We’re talking about a roughly 18% decline. 👀 Keep an eye on France!https://x.com/jsblokland/status/21009063572473286340.00602026-09-18T16:11:57.672768+00:002x.combondsfrencheuro883https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f440.svg👀2026-09-18T16:11:57.928689+00:00884https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSfrE2YWkAA-0Iu?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T16:11:57.983115+00:00815https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAEvery major government bond market is selling off at once. Japan's 10-year just hit 3% for the first time this century. US yields are the highest since 2007, the UK since 2008, Germany since 2011.Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®@kurtsaltrichterhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00602026-09-16T12:14:02.848277+00:001linkedin.commarketsbondsyields700https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEDNyavIeHDrA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCotYHKGgAk-/0/1789536862952?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=hxKumne8lYAsDSvbxzPIz45WCk6Epv5dXcxa9U5ujVgView image2026-09-16T12:14:03.929646+00:00721https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAIn 2021 the government was printing and 20-year TIPS paid you NEGATIVE 0.8% after inflation. You paid them to protect your money.Today those same inflation-protected yields sit near 2.7%, the highest in over 15 years. The 30-year is above 3%.The government is still spending like a drunken sailor, so the bond market is finally forcing it to pay up. For the first time since before COVID, you can lock in a real return that beats inflation, "guaranteed."Debasement created the problem. It also created the payout.Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®@kurtsaltrichterhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00502026-09-14T20:34:44.639926+00:001linkedin.cominflationinvestmentsbonds541https://www.linkedin.com/in/miketaylornz/Mike TaylorI do love a good contrarian idea. Here is something that is very non-consensus. Bonds over stocks!Sources: Ibbotston, Bloomberg, Paulsenperspectives.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/?highlightedUpdateUrn=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A75032468013833175040.00702026-09-09T04:14:10.336885+00:001linkedin.comstocksbondscontrarian484https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGNhH0JvYlmpw/feedshare-image-high-res/B4EaCD4N8HIUAY-/0/1788918947850?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=N4R8_wum-qctXIk67TzAB6y6PMTWJAS6JAefUNqE-bUView image2026-09-09T04:14:10.700160+00:00401https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>The French 10-year bond yield reached 4.27% yesterday (Thursday)If this continues, the ECB will print many new colorful euros. The first euro crisis triggered by Greece was about hundreds of billions.France is about trillions (3.53 trillions euros to be precise).Source: Michel A.Arouet</p>https://lnkd.in/p/db2d2uAg0.00402026-09-05T13:25:17.661698+00:001linkedin.combondsecbfinance371https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFrzlCyDaCbNw/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBq.dVNKUAc-/0/1788501153413?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=Bzz9bn1qXp2llCxdOxUABV8RELKfShgmbVa1GR7BtZkView image2026-09-05T13:25:18.461062+00:00309https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruth-carson-3a22897/Ruth Carson💱 What happened to the yen in the past 48 hours? 💱Carry Trade Exodus Fuels Yen Surge Ahead of BOJ Rate DecisionA rush to unwind yen-funded carry trades helped send the currency to a one-month high against the dollar as traders ramped up bets on further Bank of Japan rate hikes. The yen held gains Friday after advancing more than 2% on Thursday, nearing levels last seen in May following the Ministry of Finance intervention. The move came after hawkish comments from BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda and board member Hajime Takata earlier this week who raised the possibility of an outsized rate increase at the central bank’s Sept. 18 meeting.Trading in yen call options against the dollar expiring this month was more than two-and-a-half times the volume of puts on Thursday, according to Chicago Mercantile Exchange data, as traders unwound existing short yen positions. Calls gain in value when the Japanese currency appreciates against the greenback. “We’re seeing unwinds of yen-funded carry trades and significant interest to own the yen over other G10 currencies in the medium term,” said Sagar Sambrani, a senior foreign-exchange options trader at Nomura in London. “The broad consensus seems to be that the easy carry trade is behind us and that the size of cross-border flows from Japan to the US could have changed materially.” Read More: https://lnkd.in/gWv86jcD Reporting with David Finnerty in Singapore #Rates #Bonds #Treasuries #Yen #Dollar #CarryTrade #Carry #Japan #FX #Currencies #JPY #Macro #Markets #USdhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.01002026-09-04T05:24:36.048106+00:001linkedin.comtreasuriesratesbonds287https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQF_iA2FCMaPQw/feedshare-image-high-res/B56aBqIBC6GQAU-/0/1788486881728?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=qpO469VXP4eUJk1yGc6lyxO9l2WFUnI7WL8rmPX5mq4View image2026-09-04T05:24:37.974530+00:00291https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>🚨 EUROPEAN COUNTRIES ARE HAVING THEIR OWN BOND CRISIS.Germany's 10-year yield hit 3.38%, the highest since 2011.France's 10-year yield hit its highest level since November 2008, nearly 18 years.Italy's 10-year yield is at 4.246%, a near 3-year high.Spain's 10-year yield is at 3.849%, its highest since November 2023.The UK 10-year yield hit its highest level in 19 years, while the UK 30-year yield reached a 28-year high.The trigger is the Iran war pushing oil higher, which pushed eurozone inflation to 3.3% in August, the highest since September 2023.Traders now price an 80% chance of two ECB rate hikes by December, which means borrowing costs across Europe could keep climbing from here.Source: Bull Theory</p>https://lnkd.in/p/drkUvT-m0.00902026-09-03T04:57:11.592759+00:001linkedin.comeuropebondsecb265https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFGys0EKqzGKQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaBi5IXZHkAk-/0/1788365539199?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=2Y8d6thH5L71QO5m5rhlLR89RoVUH0uN4p3LENKpMGAView image2026-09-03T04:57:12.119960+00:00276@lisaabramowicz1Lisa AbramowiczWhile German 10-year yields have climbed to the highest since 2011, French 10-year borrowing costs are now at the highest since 2008, causing the spread between the two yields to widen to the most in almost two years. Traders are increasingly intolerant of high fiscal deficits.https://x.com/lisaabramowicz1/status/20950746716033928940.00502026-09-02T13:33:22.429540+00:002x.combondsfinanceeconomy254https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRMzFnAWkAMq546?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-02T13:33:24.269522+00:00273@philippilkPhilip PilkingtonEuropean bond markets are now approaching meltdown territory. Britain is the most vulnerable. France and Italy are next - at least in terms of major countries.https://x.com/philippilk/status/20951160080548375810.00402742026-09-02T12:53:26.377930+00:002x.comeuropebondsfinance248https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1ea-1f1fa.svg🇪🇺2026-09-02T12:53:26.618574+00:00249https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/2622.svg☢️2026-09-02T12:53:26.634899+00:00250https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f4c9.svg📉2026-09-02T12:53:26.655255+00:00272@robin_j_brooksRobin BrooksGlobal bond markets are on fire. Every day yields rise in one place or another. Biggest mover today is Japan, where 10y10y forward (red) is up 10 bps. That spills over to everywhere else and pushes yields up globally. We're witnessing a global sell-off... https://robinjbrooks.substack.com/p/global-bond-markets-catch-on-fire…https://x.com/robin_j_brooks/status/20947609523442651130.00502026-09-02T12:51:45.522487+00:002x.commarketsbondsglobal247https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRIVnpnW0AA65z6?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-02T12:51:45.773085+00:00254@macropaperrThe Macro Paper🚨 EUROPEAN BOND MARKET IS IMPLODING France's 10Y bond yield hits 4.16%, the highest since 2008. Germany's 10Y bond yield hits 3.31%, the highest since 2011. Portugal's 10Y bond yield hits 3.665%, the highest since 2023. Italy's 10Y bond yield hits 4.15%, the highest since 2024. Spain's 10Y bond yield hits 3.76%, the highest since 2024. First Japan, then the US, and now Europe, the bond market is indicating a major global crisis is imminent.https://x.com/macropaperr/status/20944072200921744920.00602026-09-01T05:22:39.644894+00:002x.comeuropebondsmarket235IMAGE/media/content/254/g-bonds.pngg-bonds.pngpng2026-09-01T05:23:39.099280+00:00150@LukeGromenLuke GromenIt remains a variant perception that both Fed hikes or cuts will cause the long end to rise...even as long bond yields are now up on Warsh's "hawkish" speech today. The rules are different in fiscal dominance, but most market participants are still playing by the old rules. x.com/NTLiveMedia/st…https://x.com/home0.00401492026-08-29T06:09:13.987119+00:002x.combondshawkish75@KevRGordonKevin Gordon@gave_vincent of @Gavekal: "By any objective measure, OECD bonds are having a dismal decade."https://x.com/KevRGordon/status/20925808564643636040.00502026-08-27T07:03:44.192329+00:002x.combondsoecd66https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQpXE2fW4AA4BjT?format=png&name=smallImage2026-08-27T07:03:44.481284+00:002@ThierryBorgeatThierry from arvyWHAT IF the biggest bubble of our lifetime isn't crypto? Not AI stocks. Not real estate. What if it's the one asset every pension fund, every retiree, every "safe" portfolio is loaded with? Bonds. 200 years of rate cycles say the same thing: Every peak lasts 56–67 years. Thehttps://x.com/ThierryBorgeat/status/20919780422854004830.003532026-08-25T17:14:27.536599+00:002x.combondsbubblefinance2https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQgy8L0XoAES2ri?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-08-25T17:14:27.836629+00:00