https://gnosly.com/feed/debt/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms2623https://www.linkedin.com/in/shikhar-chokhani-4260ba11a/Shikhar Chokhani<p>The 10-year Treasury ended September at 5.26%, the highest close since 2007. The 30-year was at 5.59%. Interest on the debt hit $1.27 trillion in the first eleven months of the fiscal year, already more than all of last year. Debt is over $40 trillion. Official forecasts assumed a 10-year average of 4.1%. The market is more than a full point above that.</p><p>One framework treats 4.5% as a yellow light, and 5.0% as a red light for the government's finances. On 18 September, the yield was still 4.77%. It then crossed 5% later in the month and finished there.</p><p>3 things worth knowing </p><p>-1) The government is already using the small tools - From 9 September, the cap on each long-bond buyback rose from $2 billion to at least $4 billion. It is funding itself more heavily with short-term bills, now about a quarter of all the debt, while leaving regular bond auctions the same size. Emerging market debt offices have done both for years. These moves change who holds the paper this quarter. They do not cut the deficit. Spending on Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid rose from about 6% of the economy in the early 1960s to about 18% by the early 2020s, under both parties. Buying back a few billion of bonds does not reverse that.</p><p>2) The open question is whether Washington eventually just caps the yield - If 5% to 6% lasts, and the deficit does not shrink, one option is to peg long-term rates, as the U.S. did in wartime, and Japan did from 2016. It is not the only option. Short-term bills can carry a 5% yield for a while. Japan's cap lost the yen in 2022, and was then dropped. In 2026, Japan reportedly sold more than $90 billion of Treasuries from July to defend the yen. The U.S. wartime cap, 2.5% on the long bond from 1942, ended in 1951, after inflation ran above 8%. Neither case was painless.</p><p>3) September did not show the ending people fear - It showed the math that makes a cap thinkable. Gold fell 8.5% in the month. The dollar was near the top of its two-year range. If the authorities had already capped yields and pushed the pain into the currency, the dollar would be weak, and gold would be rising. The opposite happened. What has started is an interest bill growing at rates the official forecast never assumed, on a debt pile no administration has a plan to shrink.</p><p>The certain problem is the deficit. The possible fix is a cap on yields, if rates stay here. You do not need to believe in the cap to own less long-term Treasury debt. The deficit is enough.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dmTm9pcm0.00902026-10-10T18:56:00.986256+00:001linkedin.comdeficitusdebt2440https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGs_InZFbUYmg/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaD7j2xRGYAk-/0/1790926875977?e=1793232000&v=beta&t=Vba7cM0Ello4QHgPXnycnYkQ6HLZCMBIXItLHiDgTFgView image2026-10-10T18:56:01.609415+00:002611@StefanFSchubertStefan Schubert<p>On this metric, the US comes apart more from European countries like France, Italy, and Britain than recent reporting may have suggested.</p>https://x.com/StefanFSchubert/status/21088672904272447450.00402026-10-10T14:16:13.133928+00:002x.comusbondsukfrancedebt2430https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUQy64oXwAARb6W?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-10T14:16:15.043437+00:002575https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/Wim Grommen<p>Oracle’s 5y CDS trades near a record 261bps, implying a 20.4% default probability. </p><p>SpaceX: 16.5%. </p><p>Even Nvidia: &gt;7%. </p><p>AI-related borrowers have issued nearly $500bn of debt this year, Bloomberg reports. </p>https://lnkd.in/p/dAzss5A30.00702026-10-10T05:45:47.083545+00:001linkedin.comaidebtoracle2397IMAGE/media/content/2575/20261010-oracle-borrowing-costs.jpg20261010-oracle-borrowing-costs.jpgjpg2026-10-10T05:47:48.798067+00:002558@MacroAlphaHQMacro Alpha<p>That level implies a 20.4 percent default probability. SpaceX trades at 16.5 percent and Nvidia above 7 percent. AI-linked borrowers have already sold nearly 500 billion dollars of debt this year. </p><p>The cash is leaving the balance sheet now. The revenue that is supposed to repay it has not been earned.</p>https://x.com/MacroAlphaHQ/status/21087566764215913500.00402026-10-10T04:47:15.811030+00:002x.comaidebtoracle2383https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUPOjcnWsAAT7G5?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-10T04:47:16.443560+00:002534<p>Bond giant’s investment chief warns that further sharp rise in borrowing costs is ‘feasible’ as market participants are forced to unwind losing bets</p>https://www.ft.com/content/a752a86c-cf05-4152-b842-2ae6b6bf3fe00.00402026-10-09T14:32:08.078546+00:0012ft.comusyieldsdebt2519@RealEJAntoniE.J. Antoni, Ph.D.<p>Source: RealEJAntoni (X)</p>https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/21085058199103816890.00402026-10-09T12:46:44.400610+00:002x.comusdebt2345https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HULqyCpWwAAx5yS?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-09T12:46:44.878245+00:002517@KennethLFisherKen Fisher<p>Federal debt up as a % of GDP offset by lower levels in other categories like overall Corp, personal, and municipal</p>https://x.com/KennethLFisher/status/21082349802078621670.00402026-10-09T12:30:22.835564+00:002x.comdebteconomy2343https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUH0itGXAAAsGXX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T12:30:24.069343+00:002515@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>Around €215B of French company bonds are now considered safer than French government debt. </p><p>That is 38% of France’s high-grade corporate bond market. </p><p>At the start of 2026, it was just €12B. </p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21085221111240992400.00502026-10-09T11:54:41.564220+00:002x.comfrancedebteu2342IMAGE/media/content/2515/20261009-france-as-flag.jpg20261009-france-as-flag.jpgjpg2026-10-09T12:10:18.577397+00:002505@RayDalioRay Dalio<p>Even as people become more indebted, lenders freely extend credit because during economic booms, incomes rise, asset values soar, and the stock market thrives. People borrow more to buy financial assets, pushing prices higher and creating a bubble. </p><p>So long as incomes keep rising, the debt burden stays manageable. But this cannot continue forever. Over decades, debt burdens slowly accumulate until debt repayments grow faster than incomes. This forces people to cut back on spending, causing incomes to fall and borrowing to dry up—eventually reversing the entire cycle.</p>https://x.com/RayDalio/status/21082534740769751640.00602026-10-09T07:56:43.208616+00:002x.comeconomyusdebt2328IMAGE/media/content/2505/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-09T07:57:10.454938+00:002497@LawrenceLepardLawrence Lepard, "fix the money, fix the world"<p>This chart from our upcoming EMA Q3 Report proves the point.</p>https://x.com/LawrenceLepard/status/21082584567929081550.00702026-10-09T06:59:53.783629+00:002x.comdebtusfinance2321https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUIJV-9X0AA2zYF?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T06:59:54.198607+00:002456@DhavalVJoshiDhaval Joshi<p>While France's public debt ratio is the same as the US, its PRIVATE debt ratio is WAY HIGHER. With both maxed out, there's no easy way out. The only question is how much more political pain to force the adjustment.</p>https://x.com/DhavalVJoshi/status/21077872860960442760.00402026-10-08T10:46:59.959972+00:002x.comusfrancedebt2266https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBXMXKWQAApoi9?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-08T10:47:01.772886+00:002442@IMFNewsIMF<p>Source: IMF (X)</p>https://x.com/IMFNews/status/21077648181703232620.00502026-10-08T06:35:14.659548+00:002x.comaiworlddebteconomy2250https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6xSX0AEH6zt?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.832272+00:002251https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6xTWYAADD79?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.864664+00:002252https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6sAWYAA_Ehv?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.910144+00:002437@FTFinancial Times<p>Source: Financial Times (X)</p>https://ft.trib.al/oL3KZkt0.00402026-10-08T06:04:50.568558+00:002x.cominflationbondsdebtus2245https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBxNEEWkAAa0Rd?format=jpg&name=smallLine chart showing US borrowing costs at multi-decade highs2026-10-08T06:04:52.110229+00:002405@TonyIsHere4YouTonyIsHere4You<p>Source: TonyIsHere4You (X)</p>https://x.com/TonyIsHere4You/status/21075399938874780790.00402026-10-07T12:39:48.647502+00:002x.comusdebt2216https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT98X3aWcAAKTGy?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T12:39:49.726888+00:002385@TheoLaubryThéo Laubry<p>The rhetoric of opposition candidates is symptomatic of a country that has lost touch with fiscal reality. "France has more than $1 trillion in debt coming due by 2030, and next year it should sell a record of about $380 billion in debt on a market where once-reliable sources of demand have evaporated."</p>https://x.com/TheoLaubry/status/21074115231821540720.00552026-10-07T06:37:46.081938+00:002x.comfranceeconomydebt2198IMAGE/media/content/2385/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-07T06:40:04.830519+00:002202@robinmonottiRobin Monotti<p>Top 10 EU + UK countries by government debt as a share of GDP. Eurostat, first quarter of 2026. These are the 'weakest links' in terms of credibility of how much government finances are spent &amp; where.</p>https://x.com/robinmonotti/status/21066459872508276310.00402026-10-04T14:41:11.769170+00:002x.comukdebteurope2025https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTxPW-VXYAEkCAY?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T14:41:12.832271+00:002198@coinbureauCoin Bureau<p>The whole world is DROWNING in debt. Global debt has officially hit a record $365.5 TRILLION, jumping by $10 TRILLION in just the first 6 months of 2026. And just 10 governments owe almost $97 TRILLION between them: US: $40.7T, national debt officially topped $40T for the first time China: $22.3T, record 11.89T yuan in new bonds planned this year Japan: $9.0T, national debt at a record ¥1,346T UK: $4.4T, highest share of GDP since the early 1960s France: $4.3T, record €3.6T, highest share of GDP since 1946 Italy: $3.8T, record €3.18T Germany: $3.5T, record €500B+ in bond sales planned India: $3.5T Canada: $2.8T Brazil: $2.5T America alone owes more than China, Japan, the UK and France COMBINED. And rich countries now pay $3.3 TRILLION a year in interest, more than the world spends on AI. Who's going to pay all this back?</p>https://x.com/coinbureau/status/21066857681693697020.00902026-10-04T13:54:40.532230+00:002x.comglobalfinancedebt2015IMAGE/media/content/2198/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-04T13:58:16.622167+00:002196@NeoptolemusXNeoptolemus<p>Markets see Athens as a safer bet than Paris. </p>https://x.com/NeoptolemusX/status/21064241549585698360.00402026-10-04T13:37:54.772032+00:002x.comfrancedebt2003https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTuFXLGWUAAzOVj?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T13:37:56.385480+00:002189@HannoLustigHanno Lustig<p>Why France, why now? Over the last couple of years, the French political class has been signaling to the bond market that its pensioners/boomers are the de facto senior claimants on the French Treasury's revenue. And that's not what bond investors wanted to hear, especially now that they're being asked to absorb a much larger share of issuance than a couple of years ago.</p>https://thetwocents.substack.com/p/le-boomer-spread0.00702026-10-04T06:54:41.932793+00:002x.comfrancedebt1994https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTvwa9Da4AAFjVJ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T06:54:42.532958+00:002188@MayaMajueranMaya Majueran<p>U.S. national debt has now exceeded 100% of GDP - a milestone not seen since the post-WWII era. The implications are global: borrowing costs are rising everywhere, market volatility is heightened, and pressure is growing on the dollar's dominance as the world's primary reserve currency. The cracks are showing.</p>https://x.com/MayaMajueran/status/21066066291523258060.00402026-10-04T06:38:44.372418+00:002x.comeconomicsfinancedebt1993https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTwrgGUa8AAQLCC?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T06:38:46.163534+00:002184@BarchartBarchart<p>Provided by Barchart on (X)</p>https://x.com/Barchart/status/21064625420002428830.00502026-10-04T05:32:48.420165+00:002x.comusgdpdebt1989https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTuohLlXQAAcoN0?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T05:32:49.355192+00:002180@PedderSophieSophie Pedder<p>The pitiful level of public debate in France about the debt situation next to the scale of the bond-market attack on France last week is just staggering</p>https://x.com/PedderSophie/status/21063604131853148650.00402026-10-04T05:14:27.505539+00:002x.comfrancebond-marketdebt1983https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTtLobeXYAAApB_?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T05:14:28.772955+00:002170@VoronoiAppVoronoi<p>Nations most heavily indebted to China in 2026: A breakdown.</p>https://x.com/VoronoiApp/status/21061277812601283000.00502026-10-03T08:27:15.645393+00:002x.comchinadebteconomy1973https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTp38EPXgAASmuy?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T08:27:16.865755+00:002166@SternDrewCryptoStern Drew<p>Goldman Sachs just admitted the long end of the U.S. Treasury market is “totally bidless.” Translation: almost nobody wants the 10- to 30-year debt the U.S. is trying to sell. No buyers. None. Zero. While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent tells Congress we’re in an “illiquid period,” doubles then triples long-bond buybacks, taps the General Treasury Account to fund it and openly says “I am the house.” Yields are surging anyway. The 10-year has pushed toward 5.3% and the 30-year is even higher, levels not seen in years while Japan, one of the biggest foreign holders, keeps selling Treasuries and bringing money home. This was exactly warned by Japan’s @yutokanzakireal that the measures being prepared by Bank of Japan will affect the lives of billions of people and apologized to people of the West. Soon after, Scott Bessent intervened and effectively took over BoJ operations which Japanese policymakers heavily criticized. If the same ”bidless” condition hits the short-dated treasuries market, the entire U.S. debt market (and global) collapses. The U.S. debt crisis will turn into a global liquidity crisis.</p>https://x.com/SternDrewCrypto/status/21060440336340791860.00502026-10-03T07:47:14.646188+00:002x.comdebt1969https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f6a8.svg🚨2026-10-03T07:47:14.915061+00:002161@IGWTreportIn Gold We Trust<p>America's gold covered 48.4% of US public debt in 1940 and 20.4% in 1980. Today, about 3%. "The bones are the gold. They haven't changed in fifty years," told @RonStoeferle @DenGoldGroup's Mining Forum Americas. "What has changed is how much paper has grown around them."</p>https://x.com/IGWTreport/status/21059599192625399270.00502026-10-03T07:18:43.078482+00:002x.comfinancegolddebt1964https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTnfQkcbMAAMvJt?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-03T07:18:44.358162+00:002155@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>France is where the developed-world debt problem is cracking first. Its 10-year yield has climbed to 4.7%, the highest since 2008, and the gap over German bonds just blew out to the widest since the eurozone debt crisis. The setup is textbook. Government debt is 119% of GDP, the most since 1978, the deficit is running over 5%, and a paralyzed political system cannot pass the 54 billion euros of cuts needed to slow it. So France has to sell a record pile of new debt next year while refinancing cheap pandemic-era bonds at much higher rates. Interest costs compound from here. This is the bond market doing the job politicians will not. France is just the first to crack. Every government that borrowed freely into a world of higher rates is on the same road, the US included. The era of free money is over, and the bond market is sending the bill.<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03); color: rgb(231, 233, 234);">France</span></p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21060304565546029580.00502026-10-03T06:18:26.254018+00:002x.comfrancebondsdebt1957https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTofii-XwAAuq52?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T06:18:27.242712+00:002144@AnthonyML_Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie<p>Markets now value French debt as if it were that of a BB+-rated issuer, well below the rank assigned by rating agencies. "Welcome to junk bonds" (junk bond in good French)!</p>https://x.com/AnthonyML_/status/21060402910904855750.00602026-10-03T05:20:17.114088+00:002x.comfrancedebtbonds1946https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTonGadWoAAAw8P?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T05:20:19.121028+00:002142@RafiFarberRafi Farber<p>This is the spread between French and German bonds. European Sovereign Debt Crisis may have just begun.</p>https://x.com/RafiFarber/status/21060020095391337440.00502026-10-03T05:02:43.119732+00:002x.comgermanfrenchdebt1944https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HToFqQoWcAANGs-?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T05:02:44.724154+00:002137@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>This sounds insane until you look at the math. And if the US actually tries it, gold, silver, and Bitcoin could be the biggest beneficiaries.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21060427014018009990.00602026-10-02T16:38:25.500571+00:002x.cominflationtrumpdebt1938https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTopJciacAAXxvm?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-10-02T16:38:26.579167+00:001939https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTopJg4acAAZ1Ow?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-10-02T16:38:26.612505+00:002014https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-oliver1matt-oliver1Japan will pay $108 billion in debt interest next year (16.59 Trillion Yen). An all-time record.Their entire tax revenue is roughly $460 billion.One in four tax dollars, just for interest.The BoJ is still hiking. The number will be higher next year, and the year after.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matt-oliver1_japan-will-pay-108-billion-in-debt-interest-share-7503780639029174274-KKeg/0.00402026-10-01T05:20:00.775651+00:001linkedin.comeconomyjapandebt1812https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFDdNXuKycgHA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCLIupgHoAo-/0/1789040716653?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=suuJrC7ySpTyIPBK-OgwHhzmXDK3ePQRxiFmblZFSI4View image2026-10-01T05:20:01.731068+00:002011@oguzerkanOguz Erkan<p>The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt. Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down. Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings. This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030. There are only three ways out: - Accelerating GDP growth - Cutting the budget deficit - Inflating it away over time Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields. In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself. This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.</p>https://x.com/oguzerkan/status/21053805788328799660.00502026-10-01T04:58:36.629272+00:002x.comyieldseconomydebt1810https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTfQSx4W8AIMZzX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T04:58:36.955954+00:001936https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanlemand/Ryan Lemand, PhD<p>Japan has twice the debt ratio of the US and pays a fifth of the interest, so stop using Japan to argue the US has timeThe most common reassurance about American debt goes: Japan carries more than 230% of GDP and nothing happened, the US is at 122%, so the US has decades. This chart ends the argument. On the 2027 forecast the US pays net interest of 4.3% of GDP, the highest of 30 developed economies, above Italy, above Hungary, above the UK, while Japan pays 0.9%. Debt to GDP is the wrong ratio because interest to GDP is the one that binds, and the two countries reach opposite results for 4 reasons. Japan's gross debt overstates its position, since the state holds enormous financial assets and its net debt is closer to 135% of GDP. The Bank of Japan owns roughly half the stock and remits the interest back to the treasury, so half the bill is paid to itself. The average rate on the JGB stock is near 1% on a long average maturity, so this year's move in yields feeds in slowly. And Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, funding its own debt from domestic savings and a current account surplus, whereas the US is the world's largest debtor, borrowing from foreigners who are now selling. The US, by contrast, holds 22% of its marketable debt in bills that reprice within a year, its average rate is rising every month, and net interest already exceeds the defense budget on the way to a projected $2.1 trillion by 2036.Source on graph.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/d4Mqc2Dp0.00902026-09-30T05:24:39.467864+00:001linkedin.comeconomicsjapandebt1727https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQFnzg5lAs32lw/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDcm5lEKcAc-/0/1790407580241?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=Dswi1_qEoDbKUwkZBhmtimXNd7s9Q8CmirFvvMbo110View image2026-09-30T05:24:40.944356+00:001914@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>The US just added a trillion dollars of debt faster than any time outside a pandemic. Total federal debt blew past $40 trillion this month. It grew $2.67 trillion in the past year, roughly $7 billion every single day. Nobody is paying this back. It gets refinanced and monetized, which means more Treasury supply and, eventually, more printed dollars. Every dollar you hold buys a little less each year this runs. The hedge is owning the things they cannot print.</p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21048796184821396010.00402026-09-29T15:05:39.088119+00:002x.comeconomicstreasurydebt1703IMAGE/media/content/1914/g-20260929-us-debt.jpgg-20260929-us-debt.jpgjpg2026-09-29T15:06:44.015358+00:001911@AyeshaTariqAyesha Tariq, CFA<p>This is something... YTD, hyperscalers have issued more debt than some governments.</p>https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/21049367339222673990.00502026-09-29T14:39:36.459097+00:002x.comeconomyfinancedebt1700IMAGE/media/content/1911/g-20260929-hyperscalers-debt.pngg-20260929-hyperscalers-debt.pngpng2026-09-29T14:57:50.746732+00:001888@SimonPBSimon BrownUS 10-year bond yields at almost twenty year highs while US debt sits at record levels of +$40trillion ..https://x.com/SimonPB/status/21047974897067992870.00402026-09-29T06:09:33.968244+00:002x.comusbond-yieldsdebt1668https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTW9yu8XQAArNxI?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-29T06:09:34.382583+00:001797@RealEJAntoniE.J. Antoni, Ph.D.$40 trillion and rising, yields converging on 5%+ That's $2 trillion in annual interest on the debt...https://x.com/RealEJAntoni/status/21038384591444136090.00502026-09-27T06:45:14.855817+00:002x.comeconomicsinterestdebt1577IMAGE/media/content/1797/g-20260926-finance.pngg-20260926-finance.pngpng2026-09-27T06:47:58.491542+00:001791@MichaelAArouetMichael A. ArouetThe US, France and Canada have increased their debt-to-GDP ratios by 20%+ over the last decade. China’s rise was simply the largest debt binge in recent history. The 65% increase is much higher if local-government debt increases are included. The recent spike in bond yields signals what markets think of such reckless government spending. Greece and Portugal went through painful austerity and reduced their debt burdens. The longer others wait and pretend everything is fine, the deeper and more painful the unavoidable adjustments will be. One way or another it won’t be pretty. Buckle up.https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/21038718499520840360.00502026-09-27T06:19:47.410904+00:002x.comeconomygovernment-spendingdebt1564https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTJ0S-tW8AANAM0?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T06:19:47.834876+00:001753@heresyfinancialJoseph BrownThis is what the first 6 years of a 40 year debt cycle looks likehttps://x.com/heresyfinancial/status/21039465088655237300.00402026-09-27T03:37:44.866849+00:002x.comcyclefinancedebt1528https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTK4MscakAArb-n?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T03:37:45.133684+00:001751https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies.Excluding China, emerging-market and developing-economy debt soared to a record $38 trillion.Global debt now stands at ~310% of global GDP, although the ratio has fallen -25 percentage points from its early-2021 peak, largely because inflation has boosted nominal GDP rather than because of deleveraging.Meanwhile, developed economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on marketable government debt over the last year, exceeding estimated global spending on AI at $2.6 trillion, defense at $3.1 trillion, and clean energy at $2.3 trillion.This comes as annual government interest payments across the G7 alone surged +85% YoY.The global debt crisis is in uncharted territory.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00602026-09-27T03:21:15.993027+00:001linkedin.comeconomyglobaldebt1526https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHvvNbiI8KARg/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaDea806GsAk-/0/1790438002216?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=6RAm8e-_RrG4LW4X-4P3MB_9dM8V8EX_6fwRV9_D15AView image2026-09-27T03:21:16.375242+00:001670https://www.linkedin.com/company/riverfinancial/RiverThe government's playbook since 1971:1. The government spends more than it earns.2. It must take on debt to fund the difference.3. The Fed creates money to buy the debt.4. More money makes every dollar worth less.5. Everything gets more expensive.https://www.linkedin.com/company/riverfinancial/0.00502026-09-25T11:47:39.700251+00:001linkedin.comgovernmenteconomicsdebt1465https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQGGiA0nXgx6Vw/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aDUNPjzIQAc-/0/1790266636981?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=1MIqXNgsZA5hOWT-Gjw0rfNozIrlBtnA4ejgY5iQOpAView image2026-09-25T11:47:40.453941+00:001641@GoldSilverHQGoldSilver HQOfficial US gold vs $40.1T debt — three cover prices: $15,300 gold = 10% cover $30,700 gold = 20% cover $153,300 gold = 100% coverhttps://x.com/GoldSilverHQ/status/21033034750610108020.00402026-09-25T08:28:07.258893+00:002x.comcovergolddebt1440https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-EbAnWoAA53l5?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T08:28:07.532618+00:001632@BullTheoryioBull TheoryBREAKING: Foreign purchases of short-term US debt just collapsed 80% in a year, falling from $250.5 billion to just $49.4 billion. Long-term US debt purchases from foreign buyers also fell 46% over the same period, a combined $410 billion reversal. This is happening right as the US needs to finance record amounts of new debt.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21030914419165842730.00502026-09-25T07:04:44.743652+00:002x.comeconomyfinancedebt1432https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-ugQVaoAA5WD-?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:04:45.168903+00:001433https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-ugQobYAAxAQz?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:04:45.202379+00:001607@deerpointmacroDeer Point MacroLet’s talk about Oracle: Oracle’s credit selloff is increasingly becoming a fundamental financing story. 124.5bn of fixed-rate debt carries 6.1bn of annual coupons, but repricing the stack at today’s curve implies 9.0bn nearly 3bn higher. More realistically, if current funding costs persist, refinancing 2027–36 maturities could add 1.1bn to annual interest expense, compress net margin 130bp to 25.3% and reduce EBITDA/interest coverage from 6.8x to 5.7x. With elevated capex, negative FCF and Oracle’s curve now 100bp wide of BBB on a maturity-weighted basis, the risk is a feedback loop: weaker FCF, greater financing needs, higher interest expense, weaker coverage and profitability.https://x.com/deerpointmacro/status/21031260773840611810.00602026-09-25T06:25:54.486252+00:002x.comdebtfinanceoracle1411https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_OBVxWYAEezRg?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:25:55.611803+00:001532https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAThe extra yield France has to pay over Germany on 10-year debt is going vertical.Source: Bloomberghttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00352026-09-24T06:46:56.321073+00:001linkedin.comyieldfinancedebt1341https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEdda0y9xmP7w/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaDR3TtYIEAk-/0/1790227332410?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=juTDA5KlnhELWjXW3AmdRgZeao1pELFsW6XeoCG8WQ4View image2026-09-24T06:46:58.306082+00:001436https://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/Jakob Riemann, CFEFund Management and Leading Financial Expert 雅各布·里曼是一位天才，被公认为其时代最伟大的人物. THE U.S. IS TAKING A MUCH BIGGER GAMBLE WITH ITS DEBT.Wall Street’s biggest banks now expect around $1 trillion of new short-term T-bill issuance over the next year.That could push T-bills to nearly 25% of all marketable U.S. debt.The reason is simple:Long-term borrowing is expensive.10-year and 30-year yields are around 5%, so the Treasury is leaning harder on short-term debt instead.But this makes the system much more fragile.T-bills mature fast, so the government has to keep rolling huge amounts of debt over again and again.If rates stay high, refinancing costs can rise rapidly.And with U.S. debt already above $40 trillion and annual interest costs above $1 trillion, the margin for error is very little.Source: The Macro Paperhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/0.00602026-09-23T07:21:00.770987+00:001linkedin.comeconomyfinancedebt1256https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHtPQfzbSb4Dg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaDKudJqKcAk-/0/1790107571056?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=hwcUszUWHiy22EjJVHutTBIcCKiEw5Lnq12_ZF-PtMcView image2026-09-23T07:21:01.744782+00:00771@TaviCostaOtavio (Tavi) CostaThis is still one of the most important macro divergences in markets today. Ever since the US seized Russian assets, we have seen this historical relationship come apart. Gold is now the main collateral for central banks. Meanwhile, the current trajectory of real yields is exactly how you go bankrupt with this much debt in the US. https://tavicosta.substack.com/p/the-great-decoupling…https://x.com/TaviCosta/status/21000819849742379650.00502026-09-16T05:35:43.087059+00:002x.commarketsgolddebt658https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HST9U3FaoAAfNoO?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-16T05:35:43.760194+00:00738https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: US consumers aged 40-49 now account for 26.8% of new consumer bankruptcies, their highest proportion since Q3 2015 and the largest among all age groups.At the same time, the 50-59 group represents 23.1%, bringing the combined proportion of Americans aged 40-59 to 49.9%, the largest since Q1 2017.To put this into perspective, this figure peaked at 54.3% in Q4 2011, following the 2008 Financial Crisis.Furthermore, those aged 70+ now make up 21.5% of all new consumer bankruptcies, their largest proportion since Q2 2017.Meanwhile, Americans aged 18-29 now account for only 5.9% of new bankruptcies, their lowest percentage since Q2 2014.Older Americans are falling behind on their debt.https://www.linkedin.com/feed0.00602026-09-15T05:25:59.764538+00:001linkedin.combankruptciesus-consumersdebt635https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQG9RRYJ99c6hA/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCihlLxIUAc-/0/1789433107465?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=CwY0ZL5k5j1ri2gy_ZsrFdTYoZ1nM7k9DpbnUBun7gcView image2026-09-15T05:26:02.115723+00:00716https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA🚨 Hyperscaler debt is exploding.Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft and Meta have already issued more than $200 billion of bonds in 2026—more than double last year’s $78 billion and far above the sub-$30 billion annual pace typical of the previous decade.The reason? AI infrastructure.Combined capex guidance is approaching an extraordinary $700 billion this year, covering data centers, chips, power and network capacity.Even their immense cash flows are no longer enough. Amazon’s capital spending reached 102% of operating cash flow over the past 12 months.The scale is now macroeconomic: the AI buildout is approaching 2% of U.S. GDP and, by some estimates, has generated around one-third of this year’s economic growth.The AI boom is no longer being funded by cash alone.It is increasingly being built on debt.Source: Bloomberg, Hedgeyehttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00602026-09-14T20:30:39.457916+00:001linkedin.comaieconomydebt619https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGOT2JbvXv5Zw/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCXt05TIYAk-/0/1789251768155?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=JWEgCrbhX-YrTTN1BrqIQ0OG6U7QUPlNEt1A5EeHweUView image2026-09-14T20:30:39.713699+00:00536https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAFrance's debt level is near the same level that Greece was at in 2009 level when there was a European Sovereign Debt Crisis.Greece was tiny though, just a few hundred billion Euros. Germany could bail out Greece.France has $3.5 trillion Euros in debt. 12 x larger than Greece.Nobody can bail out France. It's too huge.Source: Wall Street Mavhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00452026-09-09T02:19:56.881858+00:001linkedin.comfranceeconomydebt480IMAGE/media/content/536/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-09T02:20:35.259518+00:00507WHY JAPAN’S DEBT WOES COULD TURN INTO A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS Japan’s rising bond yields could turn a domestic debt problem into a global liquidity shock. If the 10-year JGB moves toward the model-implied 4.5%, the shrinking U.S.-Japan yield gap could unwind the yen carry trade, drain demand from U.S. Treasuries and push borrowing costs higher worldwide. To read my full story on FXEmpire: https://lnkd.in/eFWcVa7zhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7502755749832417280/0.00352026-09-08T09:18:22.589634+00:001linkedin.comglobaljapandebt457IMAGE/media/content/507/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-08T09:19:02.786456+00:00287@BarchartBarchartJUST IN 🚨: U.S. Treasury is forecasted to buy back $12.5 Billion of their own debt tomorrowhttps://x.com/Barchart/status/20952834572617730150.00402026-09-03T04:50:17.994714+00:002x.comtreasuryfinancedebt262https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRPxLx6WYAISh7w?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-03T04:50:18.272526+00:0096@joebrusuelasJoseph BrusuelasAt $40 trillion & rising the free lunch on the US budget deficit is over. Hard choices & unpleasant realities await. You may not be interested in debt & deficit dynamics but it’s is interested in you. Source: The Real Economy Bloghttps://x.com/joebrusuelas/status/20929496786858805720.00502026-08-27T12:53:12.538343+00:002x.comdeficitdebt90https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2092948958758723584/w2MR2_Zv?format=png&name=small2026-08-27T12:53:12.808540+00:0079@dlacalle_IADaniel Lacalle Official Account<p>Bessent's debt plan is not new, not QE, and no threat to the dollar. No reserves are created, $83 bn max in a $32trn market. The same people that cheered Yellen's larger program, the ECB, the BoJ, and the BoE show selective outrage. Curious. https://talkmarkets.com/article/bessen...</p>https://x.com/dlacalle_IA/status/20926956108098071840.00602026-08-27T08:58:58.020024+00:002x.comdebt70IMAGE/media/content/79/g-bessent-qe.pngg-bessent-qe.pngpng2026-08-27T08:59:55.865182+00:0040@StephaneDeoStephane DeoThis chart never ceases to amaze me. The US debt service has effectively been shifted from corporates to the government. That’s why the credit market remains so well-behaved despite the mounting pressure on Treasuries.https://x.com/StephaneDeo/status/20925543508328122840.00402026-08-26T16:08:53.050243+00:002x.comcreditusdebt34https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQo_E13XIAAx3VK?format=png&name=smallImage2026-08-26T16:08:53.288133+00:00