https://gnosly.com/feed/economy/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms2612https://www.linkedin.com/in/marcellvollmer/Dr. Marcell Vollmer<p>Europe accounts for 14 of the top 25 economies, while China is the only upper-middle-income economy in the top 30. </p><p>China ranks 10th overall but fifth in innovation outputs, outperforming several major advanced economies</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dR-G8t_e0.00602026-10-10T14:21:41.299099+00:001linkedin.comcountriesinnovationeconomy2431https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFB9GNL6SCHZA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaElFIINKgAk-/0/1791623463689?e=1793232000&v=beta&t=Xcp8-P9dFuO0Pjjo3pbMsPoXqwtuFX9OB5f0nHM5NvwView image2026-10-10T14:21:42.212903+00:002609@SorenthekVBL’s Ghost<p>When U.S. trade policy shifts, some economies barely notice. For others, trade with the U.S. is large enough to noticeably influence economic growth. <strong>Key Takeaways:</strong></p><p>Trade with the U.S. is equivalent to 48% of Mexico’s GDP and 44% of Vietnam’s in 2025, more than six times the global average of 6.5%.</p><p>Canada has the third-highest exposure among large economies with GDP above $100 billion, with U.S. trade equal to 31% of its GDP.</p><p>China, one of America’s largest trading partners, has U.S. trade equal to just 2% of its GDP.</p>https://vblgoldfix.substack.com/p/mapped-the-economies-most-dependent?ref=gnosly0.00502026-10-10T13:43:08.803208+00:002x.comtradeuseconomy2428https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2108247580190572545/SwHvPXxJ?format=jpg&name=small2026-10-10T13:43:10.114046+00:002593@DrJStrategyJames E. Thorne<p>The country is undergoing a generational structural adjustment, yet the economic elite and the Bank of Canada are contemplating rate hikes. </p>https://x.com/DrJStrategy/status/21086387635511914310.00402026-10-10T09:54:49.085963+00:002x.comunemploymentcanadaeconomy2412https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUNjx6hWsAAgvRF?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-10T09:54:49.516629+00:002591@MaMoMVPYLars Christensen<p>Source: Lars Christensen (X)</p>https://x.com/MaMoMVPY/status/21087606510404611740.00502026-10-10T09:37:22.979120+00:002x.combelgiumfranceeueconomy2411https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUPSmomW0AAOmt5?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-10T09:37:23.931293+00:002589@KushPatil_Kush<p>Each of the last five peaks came within about 3 months of a $SPY top. Not a timing signal, but it shows how much of this rally runs on borrowed money.</p>https://x.com/KushPatil_/status/21088374406142815040.00402026-10-10T09:21:31.829420+00:002x.comstockseconomyus2409https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUQNnovWgAApOhv?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-10T09:21:32.958398+00:002554@RichardDias_CFARichard Dias<p>The decline in employment was driven entirely by a significant drop in public-sector employment.</p>https://x.com/RichardDias_CFA/status/21085580472412858250.00402026-10-09T16:48:49.573499+00:002x.comcanadaeconomyjobs2381https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUMY13RX0AES-UF?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T16:48:50.771912+00:002553@MarcNixon24Marc Nixon<p>Source: Marc Nixon (X)</p>https://x.com/MarcNixon24/status/21085939058519124470.00502026-10-09T16:44:36.566776+00:002x.comjobscanadaeconomy2380https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUM6-xVaQAASuRN?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T16:44:37.055258+00:002552@KirkLubimovKirk Lubimov<p>August: -41,700 </p><p>September: -68,300</p>https://x.com/KirkLubimov/status/21085559279181950970.00602026-10-09T16:37:20.711916+00:002x.comjobscanadaeconomy2379https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUMYcSEbUAARzvy?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T16:37:21.860206+00:002547@TheDisproofBONUS<p>Source: TheDisproof (X)</p>https://x.com/TheDisproof/status/21084733475163423130.00402026-10-09T16:06:21.155280+00:002x.comeconomygasenergy2373https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HULNUQyXMAAZVCz?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T16:06:21.818321+00:002545@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>If people lose confidence, they usually start spending less and saving more. </p><p>That means businesses make less money, hiring slows, investment gets cut, and layoffs can start. </p><p>If that continues, economic growth weakens, and recession fears will go up.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21085795118897606380.00402026-10-09T15:28:11.305864+00:002x.comeconomyus2371https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUMt4INawAE1ydO?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T15:28:12.442279+00:002517@KennethLFisherKen Fisher<p>Federal debt up as a % of GDP offset by lower levels in other categories like overall Corp, personal, and municipal</p>https://x.com/KennethLFisher/status/21082349802078621670.00402026-10-09T12:30:22.835564+00:002x.comdebteconomy2343https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUH0itGXAAAsGXX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-09T12:30:24.069343+00:002505@RayDalioRay Dalio<p>Even as people become more indebted, lenders freely extend credit because during economic booms, incomes rise, asset values soar, and the stock market thrives. People borrow more to buy financial assets, pushing prices higher and creating a bubble. </p><p>So long as incomes keep rising, the debt burden stays manageable. But this cannot continue forever. Over decades, debt burdens slowly accumulate until debt repayments grow faster than incomes. This forces people to cut back on spending, causing incomes to fall and borrowing to dry up—eventually reversing the entire cycle.</p>https://x.com/RayDalio/status/21082534740769751640.00602026-10-09T07:56:43.208616+00:002x.comeconomyusdebt2328IMAGE/media/content/2505/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-09T07:57:10.454938+00:002474@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p> Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have already lost 15%-40% of their dollar reserves. India is down roughly $50B, while Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal are also getting hit by expensive energy and weaker currencies. If the war drags on much longer, Asia could be left with very serious problems.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21081690258766033840.00502026-10-08T15:43:45.820173+00:002x.comwarasiairaneconomy2286https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUG4jExbwAENQHZ?format=png&name=360x360Image2026-10-08T15:43:46.925605+00:002469@Nicolas_ColinNicolas Colin<p>Europe represses wages and exports its savings: that's the "Europoor" phenomenon. America turns European savings into soaring tech valuations: that's the AI bubble. China builds the factories and floods the world with cheap goods: that's involution. And each loop feeds the next. More here: https://ardenletter.com/p/the-wests-ca…</p>https://x.com/Nicolas_Colin/status/21081805428730515510.00702026-10-08T15:08:49.685745+00:002x.comchinaeuuseconomy2282https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUHDB4jWIAAV1qM?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T15:08:50.348369+00:002449@WSJWSJ<p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">2020: 774,000</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">2022: 712,000</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">2024: 683,000</span></p><p><span style="background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">2026: 420,000 (f) </span></p>https://x.com/dunne_insights/status/21078210089295708230.00452026-10-08T07:26:19.806948+00:002x.commercedesgermanyeconomychina2260https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2107771706949369856/S0JTbVX5?format=jpg&name=smallMercedes-Benz Car Sales Fall on China Market Weakness2026-10-08T07:26:20.012122+00:002447@RBReichRobert Reich<p>Source: Robert Reich (X)</p>https://x.com/RBReich/status/21078798986268713770.00502026-10-08T07:19:35.003825+00:002x.compoliticsinequalityeconomyus2259https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUCxmQGWMAA3dXQ?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-08T07:19:36.111130+00:002442@IMFNewsIMF<p>Source: IMF (X)</p>https://x.com/IMFNews/status/21077648181703232620.00502026-10-08T06:35:14.659548+00:002x.comaiworlddebteconomy2250https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6xSX0AEH6zt?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.832272+00:002251https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6xTWYAADD79?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.864664+00:002252https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBI6sAWYAA_Ehv?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:35:15.910144+00:002440@LuisGonzaliLuis Gonzali<p>Source: LuisGonzali (X)</p>https://x.com/LuisGonzali/status/21079195342253265680.00502026-10-08T06:24:58.098511+00:002x.comgrowtheconomyus2248https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUDVLEGWQAAe55G?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:24:59.207809+00:002392@JEBistlineJohn Bistline<p>Source: John Bistline (X)</p>https://x.com/JEBistline/status/21075343631769316040.00402026-10-07T07:09:16.166156+00:002x.comaieconomyus2204https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT93VdSWsAA24HV?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T07:09:16.719912+00:002385@TheoLaubryThéo Laubry<p>The rhetoric of opposition candidates is symptomatic of a country that has lost touch with fiscal reality. "France has more than $1 trillion in debt coming due by 2030, and next year it should sell a record of about $380 billion in debt on a market where once-reliable sources of demand have evaporated."</p>https://x.com/TheoLaubry/status/21074115231821540720.00552026-10-07T06:37:46.081938+00:002x.comfranceeconomydebt2198IMAGE/media/content/2385/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-07T06:40:04.830519+00:002381<p>Most U.S. stocks are down, but the market’s AI engine is firing on all cylinders.</p>https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-s-p-500-hits-a-new-record-high-powered-by-techand-not-much-else-66e017050.00502026-10-07T06:14:45.265012+00:0023wsj.comsp-500useconomy2377@GreenPlusAnERuss Greene<p>Source: Russ Greene (X)</p>https://x.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/21076227376825553240.004523782026-10-07T06:00:29.360568+00:002x.comfranceseniorseconomy2192https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT_HHrFWQAAw3BL?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-07T06:00:29.812935+00:002349@AlexMalitasAlex Malitas, CFA<p>We often highlight these two charts. One shows that inflation has outpaced average hourly earnings since April 2020. The second shows how Wall Street views inflation versus how the average person does. The average person sees the prices of what they buy as 30% higher. Economists &amp; Wall Street see that yoy inflation isn't 9% anymore</p>https://x.com/AlexMalitas/status/21071279363272502670.00602026-10-06T13:32:12.272627+00:002x.cominflationuseconomy2168https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4FqfGXgAAYFBv?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T13:32:14.698772+00:002169https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4FsCHWUAAGRbj?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T13:32:14.734547+00:002341@AlexMalitasAlex Malitas, CFAGreat example of the K-shaped economy in 2026... Wall Street sees rising equities boosting wealth, but most of the country doesn't own equities. Consumer sentiment is at an all-time low because they care about real dollars. 1/2https://x.com/AlexMalitas/status/21071270224723235660.004023422026-10-06T10:08:30.669814+00:002x.comequitiesconsumereconomy2161https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4EpoJWoAAb17W?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T10:08:31.964815+00:002339@BirdywordMike Bird<p>Demand for corporate bonds and US equities now &gt; the pre-Global Financial Crisis binge after adjusting for inflation.</p>https://x.com/Birdyword/status/21071901720308370970.00402026-10-06T09:41:37.750100+00:002x.comuseconomy2159https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4-RaPXUAA-1Yr?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T09:41:38.288446+00:002333https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>This is well above the long-term average of ~49 months and the median of ~38 months. By comparison, the longest period without a recession was between 2009 and 2020, at 128 months. All 5 of the most recent US expansions rank among the 7 longest economic growth periods since business cycle dating began in 1854. Unconventional monetary policy, historically large budget deficits, alongside the AI investment boom, appear to be extending the duration of business cycles. The data says the US economy is remarkably strong.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00502026-10-06T08:54:22.150019+00:001linkedin.comuseconomy2152https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGXAEWqVJVerg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaEQDvjNG8Ac-/0/1791270779366?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=Q25-XpgNcsoOU2TdVDw5KT_ZDxpXInaMTk-bFIeVNwsView image2026-10-06T08:54:22.621711+00:002332@InvestingVisualInvesting visuals<ul><li>2025: $8.5B</li><li>2026: $85B</li><li>2027: $199B</li></ul><p>At $199B, Micron’s projected earnings would surpass the current net income levels of both $MSFT and $AMZN. </p>https://x.com/InvestingVisual/status/21071742355294414270.00502026-10-06T08:46:48.532134+00:002x.commicronaieconomy2151https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT3yIICWQAAk0_R?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-06T08:46:48.789904+00:002331@BrilliantMapsBrilliant Maps<p>Credit: @xruiztru</p>https://x.com/BrilliantMaps/status/21072749379750749510.00502026-10-06T08:42:59.584381+00:002x.comgdpeconomy2150https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT6LYzJWoAEt7JH?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-06T08:43:01.279769+00:002313@ElectrekCoElectrek.co<p>Global data. Gas-only sales fell 10% year over year to 20.25 million units</p>https://x.com/ElectrekCo/status/21071536650397698470.00602026-10-06T05:30:36.354564+00:002x.comvehicleeconomy2137https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4c05SX0AENQPP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-06T05:30:38.179090+00:002299@BrianTycangcoBrian Tycangco 鄭彥渊<p>China has clearly succeeded in making a modern society endowed with all the convenience, affordability, and safety that most people aspire to live in. This, however, isn’t being reflected in its stock market. But I continue to believe that China can benefit from a flourishing capital market that creates opportunities for an increasing number of people who no longer see owning a business as a way achieving financial security. Owning shares in well-managed, profitable companies can be just as rewarding (and less risky) than starting one from scratch in a highly competitive market. And, yes, they do exist in China. Given how the bond market is imploding in many developed countries, while China’s bond market soars on strong demand, it’s only a matter of time before lower rates start to positively impact the economy.</p>https://x.com/BrianTycangco/status/21071161372344814020.00502026-10-05T15:18:21.755821+00:002x.comchinaeconomystock-market2121https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT369Mja0AAAWGb?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-05T15:18:22.608548+00:002277@mnicoletosMichael Nicoletos<p>#China says its economy grew 4.7% in the first half of 2026. Now look at what that growth is supposed to stand on. • Fixed asset investment: down 7.2% through August, about $335 billion less than a year earlier. • Property investment: down 19.9%. • Construction output: down 4.1% in Q2. • New orders at the big state builders: falling. China Railway Construction was down 17% in H1. Investment is around 40% of China's GDP. When 40% of an economy shrinks by 7%, you need almost 3 points of growth from somewhere else just to stay flat. Consumers are not filling the gap. Retail sales of goods rose just 1.1%. Exports did the heavy lifting, up 13.4%, and delivered about a fifth of Q2 growth. But imports rose even faster, up 22.1%, so the trade surplus actually shrank. And yet the official accounts say investment added about 1.5 points to growth in H1. The monthly data say investment shrank. The GDP accounts say it grew. Same economy, same six months, two opposite stories. The Bank of Finland's model puts Q2 growth at 3.1%, not 4.3%. The official figure sits near the very top of its range. Q3 GDP comes out October 19. Watch how neatly it lands. Why the world keeps looking away</p>https://michaelnicoletos.substack.com/p/the-elephant-no-one-wants-to-see?ref=gnosly0.00602026-10-05T12:41:25.788237+00:002x.comchinagrowtheconomy2099https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT3NbdOX0AAYXHS?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-05T12:41:26.445431+00:002274@fteconomicsFT EconomicsEuro tumbles to 17-month low against dollarhttps://x.com/fteconomics/status/21069966120356745260.00402026-10-05T10:24:08.553919+00:002x.comdollareuroeconomy2096https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2106981908986970112/UnJ2lP8u?format=jpg&name=small2026-10-05T10:24:08.753541+00:002272https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-runkevicius/Dan Runkevicius<p>Never in this century have bonds been more interesting than they are today. But this time it's not Treasuries.On Friday, the extra yield investors demanded to hold French rather than German 10-year bonds hit 159 basis points, its widest level since late 2011.France and Germany issue their own debt, and investors price each country's risks separately. But both use the euro and follow the same ECB interest-rate policy.So what gives?The best explanation so far is that the market is pricing in the risk of a Frexit after the election.French five-year CDS under the 2014 contract costs 86.6 basis points, versus 35 under the 2003 contract. The reason is that the 2014 rules cover euro redenomination more clearly, while the 2003 rules don't. (H/t Emmanuel Ferry.)That means the 51.6-basis-point gap is a proxy for euro-exit risk. The last time the gap grew so aggressively was during the 2017 election.Japan is another possible source of selling. Japanese investors held about $145 billion of French bonds in July. That's roughly 4% of France's marketable government debt and 6.6% of Japan's overseas bond holdings.After currency hedging, a 4.9% French bond yield works out to about 3.4% for Japanese investors, not much more than they can earn at home.Not surprisingly, their French holdings have already fallen 2.5% since year-end. If more investors decide the extra yield isn't worth the risk, Japan could help push French yields higher in the near term.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dCxtYKFN0.00602026-10-05T10:07:13.736764+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondseconomy2094https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQH9IxU95nWGOQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaEK.py8JYAk-/0/1791185559185?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=CqPYID6N_46xWtrUcs20shh7vHZ5sZQm2YPQjBLrEW8View image2026-10-05T10:07:14.853205+00:002269@TiefseherDaniel D. Eckert<p>The weakness of the French economy and the political disunity in Germany are taking their toll on the euro exchange rate</p>https://x.com/Tiefseher/status/21069883016892376530.00502026-10-05T09:52:07.685416+00:002x.comeuroeconomy2091https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT2GZ_UXMAAZckt?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-05T09:52:07.947495+00:002255@ZSchneeweissZoe Schneeweiss<p>London takes a hit as super-rich worth $160 billion exit the UK&nbsp;</p>https://x.com/ZSchneeweiss/status/21069940416364833060.00502026-10-05T08:15:53.439052+00:002x.comwealtheconomyuk2077https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT19kRPWAAAkNwX?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T08:15:54.675648+00:002243@WSBGoldWallStreet Gold<p>This is a staggering amount of physical gold flowing into China.</p>https://x.com/WSBGold/status/21068381459667888170.00402026-10-05T05:32:56.964245+00:002x.comchinagoldeconomy2067https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTz-ICjXEAAS4Ez?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-05T05:32:58.512841+00:002221@JaguarAnalyticsJaguarAnalytics<p>Source: Bloomberg</p>https://x.com/JaguarAnalytics/status/21064079142778306820.00402026-10-04T18:55:44.788140+00:002x.combond-marketfinanceeconomy2041https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTt21UKWUAEWtSH?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T18:55:45.777385+00:002186@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>The US added just 29,000 jobs in September. Wall Street expected 84,000. Wage growth has slowed to 3.0% year over year, down from north of 4%. July was revised into the red, and healthcare was almost the entire gain at 17,000 jobs. This is a labor market downshifting, not overheating. Softer wages kill the inflation scare and flag slowing growth instead. The case for rate cuts just got louder, and the front end of the curve moves first.</p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21065536496776440630.00502026-10-04T05:48:58.845644+00:002x.comjobslaboreconomy1991https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTv7YYZWYAAbgdk?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T05:48:59.371458+00:002185@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>When a company says its market is the size of the entire US economy, hold onto your wallet. Anthropic is reportedly telling IPO investors its total addressable market tops $30 trillion. SpaceX pitched $28.5 trillion. The entire US economy is about $32 trillion. TAM is the revenue you would earn if you captured 100% of a market you drew yourself. It is the easiest number in finance to inflate. History gives the warning. WeWork claimed a giant addressable market right before it imploded. The bigger the TAM slide, the bigger the red flag. Treat a TAM the size of US GDP as a sentiment signal, not a valuation input. Right now the slides are getting loud.</p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21063291666435977290.00502026-10-04T05:37:09.310836+00:002x.comfinanceeconomyanthropic1990https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTsvNxkWUAAB74_?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T05:37:10.256622+00:002177@peakaustriaThomas Reis<p>Humanity spends almost $6trillion trying to get rid of itself and 1,7 trillion in making us avoid learning ie dumber but 'more efficient'. Thanks Sasja Beslik for sharing this diagram..</p>https://x.com/peakaustria/status/21064051434826508670.00402026-10-04T04:37:08.283201+00:002x.comdiagramhumanityeconomy1980https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTt0T6dWYAAeV0r?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T04:37:08.931572+00:002171@ShangguanJiewenJason Smith - 上官杰文<p>Top Markets for Industrial Robot Installations in 2025</p>https://x.com/ShangguanJiewen/status/21061850438195285980.00402026-10-03T08:39:21.630759+00:002x.comchinafactseconomy1974https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTqsIQaaQAAM8ut?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T08:39:22.644989+00:002170@VoronoiAppVoronoi<p>Nations most heavily indebted to China in 2026: A breakdown.</p>https://x.com/VoronoiApp/status/21061277812601283000.00502026-10-03T08:27:15.645393+00:002x.comchinadebteconomy1973https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTp38EPXgAASmuy?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T08:27:16.865755+00:002134@KushPatil_Kush<p>In 2008, the EU's economy was bigger than America's.Today, the US is 45% bigger, and Americans produce almost twice as much per person. What hurt Europe most: energy, regulation, or missing big tech?</p>https://x.com/KushPatil_/status/21059461371274408180.00402026-10-02T16:27:02.022947+00:002x.comuseueconomy1935https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTmrAaRXEAAldnl?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T16:27:02.974592+00:002133@AndrewYangAndrew Yang<p>Labor force participation is near a 50-year low and trending downwards even before AI and robots kick into high gear.</p>https://x.com/AndrewYang/status/21059968141347640130.00402026-10-02T16:20:55.910398+00:002x.comailaboreconomy1934https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HToA8MPXsAA3pBw?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T16:20:57.379021+00:002092@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>Japan’s unemployment rate just jumped to 2.5%, above the 2.4% expected. That might look small, but Japan has one of the worst labor shortages in the world because its population is shrinking and aging. And now the job market is weakening while the bond market is already under huge pressure. Japan’s 10-year bond yield just hit its highest level since 1996. The 30-year yield just hit its highest level on record. So Japan is now dealing with: → A shrinking workforce → Rising unemployment → Record-high long-term borrowing costs → An aging population For years, Japan’s problem was that it couldn’t find enough workers. Now unemployment is rising at the same time borrowing costs are hitting levels Japan hasn’t dealt with in decades. This is exactly the kind of combination Japan did not need right now.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21058925839564844490.00502026-10-02T05:37:56.292849+00:002x.comlaborjapaneconomy1896https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTmiHnja8AAS770?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T05:37:56.539935+00:002062The average price of diesel in Europe has hit an all time high of 2.24 euros ($2.53) per litre, according to EU commission data. European airlines are facing challenges due to supply difficulties and dealing with the increase in fuel costs. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran, gasoline and diesel prices have rocketed due to decreases in supply and pauses in refining.https://aje.news/ckzmrg?update=50046010.00702026-10-01T12:36:06.665641+00:005aljazeera.comeuropeeconomydiesel1871https://cf-images.eu-west-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/665003303001/cea20b83-bed6-4432-ab4b-7578418d12e7/83a28051-939e-4e49-86c1-a07d0d3d015f/1920x1080/match/image.jpg2026-10-01T12:36:07.941218+00:002060@BaldwinRERichard Baldwin<p>What could possibly go wrong with a new phase of China Shock 2.0</p>https://x.com/BaldwinRE/status/21056028134223999640.00402026-10-01T12:14:36.739802+00:002x.comchinashockeconomy1867https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTiamOdW4AACuFP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T12:14:37.189836+00:002034https://www.linkedin.com/in/muhammad-ali-asghar/Ali Asghar, CFA<p>When diesel wheezes, the economy sneezes.Oil gets the headlines but diesel is where the economic stress is building.The key signal is the crack spread - the margin between crude oil and refined products. And right now, diesel is moving like it's on crack itself. Literally.In the US, diesel has already reached $6.53 a gallon, more than 70% above pre-war levels. Europe is more vulnerable still: diesel represents over 40% of petroleum consumption - roughly twice the US share. In the UK, prices are edging towards £2 per litre.This is not simply an energy-market story. Diesel is the fuel of the real economy: the lorries that stock shelves, the tractors that produce food, the ships that move trade and the machinery that keeps industry running.When diesel cracks widen this sharply, the effects do not stay at the pump. They cascade through freight costs, food inflation, farm profitability, construction and manufacturing - often well before households notice a change in petrol prices.Supply is tight from every direction. Russia is withholding product. Refinery disruption and geopolitical risk are constraining output. And export restrictions, while politically tempting, could make an already difficult market tighter still.There is no quick fix. But one conclusion is clear:Treating diesel as a by-product of crude is becoming an increasingly expensive mistake.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/posts/muhammad-ali-asghar_when-diesel-wheezes-the-economy-sneezes-share-7511163292506050560-OlZp/0.00702026-10-01T07:11:25.915200+00:001linkedin.comoileconomydiesel1834https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEzpW6Omq8tqQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaD0DNmCIcAo-/0/1790800878209?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=eADW2KHdch23izRDEBQqnN7AqPJ1HKgd7jWTtZxsyHEView image2026-10-01T07:11:27.196958+00:002024@jonbrooksJon BrooksMortgage demand has crashed. It's only going to get worse from here folks. I keep talking to big real estate investor friends and they keep saying "it's already over"... but we are really in the early innings.. This is end of a cycle an we are transitioning into a new one. The sooner you look at the big picture, the better.https://x.com/jonbrooks/status/21054476018103996920.00402026-10-01T06:19:54.653267+00:002x.commortgagereal-estateeconomy1821https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTeS1TKXwAAZQdf?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-01T06:19:56.402247+00:002023@alvinfooAlvin FooNvidia keeps $55.60 of every $100 it sells, Glencore keeps 10 cents. Same planet, same economy, 556x difference! Look at the top 5 on this list. Nvidia, Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Apple, all tech, all keeping $27–$56 per $100. Now look at the bottom. Walmart: $3.10. Costco: $2.90. CVS: $0.40. Massive revenue, almost nothing left. The lesson wasn't "be big”, it was: own the bottleneck. Nvidia doesn't win because it sells the most, it wins because everyone building AI has to go through it. Scarcity sets the margin. Retailers move goods, tech companies own the choke point. That's why $120B in profit comes from Nvidia, while Walmart's scale yields $22B. The AI economy is repricing everything, every industry is being sorted into two groups: Those who own the scarce layer. And those who pay rent to it.https://x.com/alvinfoo/status/21055080951745579910.00502026-10-01T06:12:37.187530+00:002x.comaitecheconomy1820https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HThEdIRWIAA31Xw?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T06:12:37.751647+00:002014https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-oliver1matt-oliver1Japan will pay $108 billion in debt interest next year (16.59 Trillion Yen). An all-time record.Their entire tax revenue is roughly $460 billion.One in four tax dollars, just for interest.The BoJ is still hiking. The number will be higher next year, and the year after.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matt-oliver1_japan-will-pay-108-billion-in-debt-interest-share-7503780639029174274-KKeg/0.00402026-10-01T05:20:00.775651+00:001linkedin.comeconomyjapandebt1812https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFDdNXuKycgHA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCLIupgHoAo-/0/1789040716653?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=suuJrC7ySpTyIPBK-OgwHhzmXDK3ePQRxiFmblZFSI4View image2026-10-01T05:20:01.731068+00:002011@oguzerkanOguz Erkan<p>The real reason yields keep rising: The US debt. Hormuz traffic has recovered, and PCE inflation is cooling, but the yields won't come down. Because the US government is now refinancing $9 trillion a year with over $2 trillion in new borrowings. This means around $30 trillion in debt issuance through 2030. There are only three ways out: - Accelerating GDP growth - Cutting the budget deficit - Inflating it away over time Investors think the first two are unlikely, which makes inflation inevitable, so they don't want to accept lower yields. In other words, what's going up is the term premium itself. This is the textbook definition of a debt spiral.</p>https://x.com/oguzerkan/status/21053805788328799660.00502026-10-01T04:58:36.629272+00:002x.comyieldseconomydebt1810https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTfQSx4W8AIMZzX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T04:58:36.955954+00:001998@WhaleInsiderWhale InsiderJUST IN: 🇺🇸 U.S. 10-year Treasury yield surges to 5.304%, surpassing its 2007 peak and reaching the highest level since May 2002.https://x.com/WhaleInsider/status/21053510217448245360.00402026-09-30T19:23:33.468999+00:002x.comusfinanceeconomy1798https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTe1l6tXkAAV3Zz?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T19:23:34.604146+00:001996@SteveRattnerSteve RattnerData centers are booming. All other private construction is shrinking.https://x.com/SteveRattner/status/21046772503900165050.00402026-09-30T19:22:29.766670+00:002x.comdatacentersconstructioneconomy1796https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTVQsY9XYAAIyY4?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T19:22:30.045166+00:001989@TOzgokmen471TOCore doesn't include energy. There is new money, so higher energy prices will start pushing all else down. Eventually, deflation will arrive with the collapse of the economy due to debt defaults and lay offs and RE foreclosures and eventually... maybe.. stock market crash.https://x.com/TOzgokmen/status/21052756846840260880.00402026-09-30T16:07:03.751626+00:002x.comdeflationenergyeconomy1788https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTdwxoBXQAAu0M7?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T16:07:04.038969+00:001979The 0.1% are worth $28 trillion, or about 15% of the nation’s total wealth. The average wealth for a household in this group is over $200 million.https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-gap-between-the-rich-and-the-very-very-rich-is-getting-wider-5f76ab6c?mod=hp_lead_pos50.00502026-09-30T15:07:36.854313+00:0023wsj.comwealtheconomy1976@KobeissiLetterThe Kobeissi Letter<p>US job openings dropped -256,000 in August, to 7.08 million, their lowest level since March. Available vacancies have now declined by -506,000 since April. The decline was driven by real estate and rental and leasing job openings, which fell -62,000, to 47,000, their lowest since September 2015. Since January 2025, job openings in this sector have plunged -144,000. Furthermore, job openings in manufacturing and construction declined -54,000 and -48,000 last month, respectively. As a result, there are just 48,000 more available vacancies than unemployed workers, down from 419,000 in July. The Fed cannot ignore the weak US labor market.</p>https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/21053117065914699050.00502026-09-30T15:01:53.975803+00:002x.comeconomyus-jobslabor-market1772https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTeIRDLXkAAiPBj?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T15:01:54.962582+00:001966@SchuldensuehnerHolger Zschaepitz<p>German inflation accelerated to 3.3% in Sep from 2.9% in Aug, driven by another sharp rise in energy prices. Core inflation, which strips out energy and food, held steady at 2.4%.</p>https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/21052801742166672390.00402026-09-30T13:14:34.837564+00:002x.cominflationenergyeconomy1761https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTd0jWgXAAAIPTs?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T13:14:36.424970+00:001964@TheStalwartJoe Weisenthal<p>Inflation is clearly reaccelerating in Europe. Source: Bloomberg</p>https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/21052303058838037500.00502026-09-30T12:37:34.742955+00:002x.cominflationeuropeeconomy1759https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTdHv6JWsAAyPmS?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T12:37:36.838851+00:001925Oil prices rose on Wednesday after Trump denied he would be willing to ease sanctions on Iran, following a drop in the previous session driven by a recovery in Middle Eastern crude supply. Brent crude futures rose $1.14, or 1.11 percent, to $103.73 a barrel as of 01:30 GMT. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude went up 34 cents, or 0.38 percent, to $89.72. Brent is headed for a monthly gain of about 14 percent, marking its biggest climb since July, while WTI is on track for a 4 percent rise after having breached $106 for the first time since May.https://aje.news/qdjslg0.00602026-09-30T04:54:03.595457+00:005aljazeera.comsanctionsoileconomy1718https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-03-24T161627Z_1873200265_RC24BKA1BLGQ_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-CRISIS-HORMUZ-1790733272.jpg3D printed oil barrels and rising stock graph are seen in this illustration taken March 23, 2026. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration2026-09-30T04:54:04.682012+00:001912@bravosresearchBravos Research<p>US corporations are seeing their profits rise, while consumer incomes are falling. Historically, this kind of divergence appears right before major economic downturns.</p>https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/21049344847434551530.00602026-09-29T14:55:32.484481+00:002x.comprofitsconsumereconomy1699IMAGE/media/content/1912/g-20260929-profit-vs-paychecks.jpgg-20260929-profit-vs-paychecks.jpgjpg2026-09-29T14:57:07.283699+00:001911@AyeshaTariqAyesha Tariq, CFA<p>This is something... YTD, hyperscalers have issued more debt than some governments.</p>https://x.com/AyeshaTariq/status/21049367339222673990.00502026-09-29T14:39:36.459097+00:002x.comeconomyfinancedebt1700IMAGE/media/content/1911/g-20260929-hyperscalers-debt.pngg-20260929-hyperscalers-debt.pngpng2026-09-29T14:57:50.746732+00:001902@SteveRattnerSteve RattnerData centers are booming. All other private construction is shrinking.https://x.com/SteveRattner/status/21046772503900165050.00402026-09-29T09:18:24.340858+00:002x.comdatacentersconstructioneconomy1686https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTVQsY9XYAAIyY4?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-29T09:18:24.933230+00:001877@kyleichanKyle Chan<p>This has been happening since 2013</p>https://x.com/kyleichan/status/21042836281802182340.00402026-09-28T14:51:50.800717+00:002x.comchinarobotseconomy1657https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTPqzpuWUAALKz1?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T14:51:51.247360+00:001873@TheStalwartJoe Weisenthal10-year yield got over 5.22%https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/21045232329088658780.00402026-09-28T11:47:11.325130+00:002x.comyieldfinanceeconomy1653https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTTEuZTWcAAoMFe?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T11:47:12.373126+00:001864@KobeissiLetterThe Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.6 points in September, to 48.1, its 2nd-lowest level in history. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, totaling -7.1 points. This comes as the Current Conditions Index decreased -1.0 point, to 50.9, its 4th-lowest reading on record. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index dropped -5.2 points, to 46.3, its 2nd-lowest since 1980. This year, the sentiment has deteriorated for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income. The decline has been driven by a higher cost-of-living, as higher fuel prices, persistent inflation, rising mortgage rates, and weaker purchasing power. Consumer sentiment is at crisis levels.https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/21043085966161308690.00502026-09-28T08:03:26.959464+00:002x.cominflationeconomyconsumersentiment1643https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTPYJpvXIAAiACU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T08:03:27.176146+00:001855@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>Japanese 2 year bond yields just hit a new 31-year high of 1.975%. This means investors are pricing in Bank of Japan rates near 2% over the next couple of years. That's roughly 75 bps more hikes from the current 1.25% rate. Japan looks fully focused on ending its era of cheap money.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21044718501014163860.00502026-09-28T07:35:12.263385+00:002x.combondsjapaneconomy1636IMAGE/media/content/1855/g-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgg-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgjpg2026-09-28T07:36:46.749916+00:001849@ValaAfsharVala Afshar<p>The US Dollar has lost -23% of its purchasing power since 2020.</p>https://x.com/ValaAfshar/status/21041809939637252510.00402026-09-28T07:02:29.915452+00:002x.comcurrencyeconomyus-dollar1628https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTONdntWQAIEtfK?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T07:02:30.145950+00:001826https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-talwar-82847b261/Aman Talwar<p>Many ‘rich countries’ are at risk of going broke …</p>https://www.linkedin.com/posts/aman-talwar-82847b261_many-rich-countries-are-at-risk-of-going-share-7509702964677255170-HzJf/0.00452026-09-27T15:16:46.663376+00:001linkedin.comfinancerich-countrieseconomy1602IMAGE/media/content/1826/g-20260927-debt-per-capita.jpgg-20260927-debt-per-capita.jpgjpg2026-09-27T15:20:40.273964+00:001824@freedom_rptRob Kientz | The Freedom ReportPer CNBC, 22V Research found that a financial crisis occurred during all 16 rapid spikes in the 10-year yield since 1970. This is exactly what I’ve been saying for two years. Rates at 4.5% or higher are not good for the economy. Never have been.https://x.com/freedom_rpt/status/21041987946403471850.00402026-09-27T15:11:19.362968+00:002x.comfinancial-crisiseconomycnbc1599https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTOdWtNXIAAfVex?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-27T15:11:20.491823+00:001811@BullTheoryioBull Theory🚨 The gap between the rich and poor is widening globally. The top 10% now own 75% of all global wealth and the bottom 50% own just 2%. In the US the gap is even wider, the richest 10% own 70% of the country's wealth. The IMF warns AI could even widen this gap further.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21041214262992036250.00502026-09-27T10:09:00.796678+00:002x.comwealthinequalityeconomy1587https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f6a8.svg🚨2026-09-27T10:09:01.335433+00:001798https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAUS Manufacturers, last year—• Robot installations:  38,500• Human job cuts:      ~100,000Source: Morning Brew, Bloomberghttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00502026-09-27T06:50:04.605701+00:001linkedin.commanufacturingroboticseconomy1578https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHvk6uv2t6B8Q/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaDeOtE5G8Ak-/0/1790434792027?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=-X0RWbzvVFw8H4MFM0wuBy8EefKwwKrCdpZLS-EY3lwView image2026-09-27T06:50:05.360564+00:001791@MichaelAArouetMichael A. ArouetThe US, France and Canada have increased their debt-to-GDP ratios by 20%+ over the last decade. China’s rise was simply the largest debt binge in recent history. The 65% increase is much higher if local-government debt increases are included. The recent spike in bond yields signals what markets think of such reckless government spending. Greece and Portugal went through painful austerity and reduced their debt burdens. The longer others wait and pretend everything is fine, the deeper and more painful the unavoidable adjustments will be. One way or another it won’t be pretty. Buckle up.https://x.com/MichaelAArouet/status/21038718499520840360.00502026-09-27T06:19:47.410904+00:002x.comeconomygovernment-spendingdebt1564https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTJ0S-tW8AANAM0?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T06:19:47.834876+00:001785@ResiClub_HQResiClubThe AI data center boom is putting additional upward pressure on long-term yields/mortgage rates Without it, the labor market and economy would be softer right now Here's another look at the latest data center spending datahttps://x.com/ResiClub_HQ/status/21028607815868746960.00402026-09-27T06:10:52.948621+00:002x.comdata-centeraieconomy1557https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS7b6q1XcAA5oPZ?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-27T06:10:53.346439+00:001777https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-talwar-82847b261/Aman Talwar🇺🇸 U.S. 30 year mortgage rates just jumped to 7.49% 🚨You know what's scary... how similar the chart looks to September 1978, when mortgage rates went from 9% to 18%Just keep in mind, most countries don't have 30 year mortgages.Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. are 3-5 year fixed. 🇪🇺🇦🇺🇨🇦2027 is a massive mortgage renewal wall outside of the U.S. If rates double that will destroy the housing market and economies.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00502026-09-27T06:00:41.761495+00:001linkedin.commortgageeconomyhousing1551https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQHd6uBkBNIqIw/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aDdBtpMIwAc-/0/1790414609275?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=YE2bmbwo9V3IWtu8sh3kWzayNFT28_ijKlXC4SRmhyQView image2026-09-27T06:00:42.277229+00:001770@randgroupRand GroupChina cut its US debt stack by 13.4% in one year. 633B now, lowest since 2009, down 52% from the 2013 peak…https://x.com/randgroup/status/21039957851550888070.00402026-09-27T05:22:49.037955+00:002x.comchinaus-debteconomy1544https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS0iQjYXoAEZPpe?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T05:22:49.342949+00:001767@vancemurphyVance MurphyNobody gives AF about the name of foreign waterways, we care about feeding our children and being able to afford gasoline. I regret every single minute I’ve spent helping get him elected.https://x.com/vancemurphy/status/21036581218477958450.00502026-09-27T05:07:15.529976+00:002x.comsocial-commentarypoliticseconomy1541https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTGx6dBbkAAf288?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T05:07:15.815852+00:001751https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: Global debt jumped by more than +$10 trillion in H1 2026, to a record $365 trillion. Emerging-market debt drove the increase, rising +$6.5 trillion, to a record $110 trillion, with most of the surge coming from governments and non-financial companies.Excluding China, emerging-market and developing-economy debt soared to a record $38 trillion.Global debt now stands at ~310% of global GDP, although the ratio has fallen -25 percentage points from its early-2021 peak, largely because inflation has boosted nominal GDP rather than because of deleveraging.Meanwhile, developed economies paid more than $3.3 trillion in interest on marketable government debt over the last year, exceeding estimated global spending on AI at $2.6 trillion, defense at $3.1 trillion, and clean energy at $2.3 trillion.This comes as annual government interest payments across the G7 alone surged +85% YoY.The global debt crisis is in uncharted territory.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00602026-09-27T03:21:15.993027+00:001linkedin.comeconomyglobaldebt1526https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHvvNbiI8KARg/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaDea806GsAk-/0/1790438002216?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=6RAm8e-_RrG4LW4X-4P3MB_9dM8V8EX_6fwRV9_D15AView image2026-09-27T03:21:16.375242+00:001737@GlobalMktObservGlobal Markets Investor⚠️ US M2 money supply surged +$125 billion last month to $23.3 trillion, an all-time high. YoY, M2 rose +5.7%, its fastest pace in 4 years. M2 is now rising by +$1.2 trillion on average per year. If you are not invested, your purchasing power is quickly eroding.https://x.com/GlobalMktObserv/status/21035319824035964730.00502026-09-26T11:41:25.194412+00:002x.commoney-supplyeconomym21518https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTE_MJ-W0AAKmIV?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-26T11:41:25.485613+00:001725@puckrinNicWhen people ask why Europe is stagnating, show them this chart. New business registrations are flatlining while bankruptcies are climbing. This trend has picked up considerably since 2022.https://x.com/puckrin/status/21037856831482552500.00402026-09-26T11:14:20.468904+00:002x.comeuropebusinesseconomy1505https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTIl7GmaAAAza5G?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-26T11:14:20.862487+00:001716https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAOne of the most interesting market signals right now is how calm investors remain.US long-term yields are near multi-decade highs. Oil is hovering around $100. The dollar is strengthening again.Yet equity volatility remains remarkably subdued.Perhaps investors expect these pressures to ease. Perhaps strong earnings and the AI investment cycle are giving them confidence that the economy can absorb higher rates and energy costs.That resilience is encouraging. It also sets up a useful test: can earnings keep supporting stocks if yields, oil and the dollar stay elevated?The answer will tell us much more than today’s VIX reading.Source: The Macro Paper@macropaperrhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00502026-09-26T09:16:18.018373+00:001linkedin.cominvestingmarketseconomy1499https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFvaNytQjWVAA/feedshare-image-high-res/B56aDZW2b4J4AU-/0/1790353041470?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=YUXI7YxsyIi8GWQ7o2kV15kdLnWc-oQ5bM8KAxdEGCkView image2026-09-26T09:16:19.539028+00:001689@Callum_ThomasCallum ThomasStocks are beating Bonds like nothing we've seen in over 50 years 👀 This is starting to get extreme. It's stretched well beyond average, and the thing is, extremes don't last...https://x.com/Callum_Thomas/status/21036292401092567700.00402026-09-26T07:08:57.219650+00:002x.comstocksbondseconomy1479https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTGXpQWWYAAmR5N?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-26T07:08:58.291122+00:001686@AlexMasonCryptoAlex Mason🚨 THIS IS NOT NORMAL The U.S. 30-year Treasury yield just hit 5.52%. Highest since 2004. And it gets worse every day: The Treasury already TRIPLED one of its long-term bond buybacks to $6 BILLION. And yields are STILL going HIGHER. Something doesn’t add up: WHO IS GOINGhttps://x.com/AlexMasonCrypto/status/21035551192288095700.003516872026-09-26T06:28:53.100659+00:002x.combondyieldustreasuryeconomy1477IMAGE/media/content/1686/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-26T06:29:43.860189+00:001658@JesseCohenInvJesse CohenGood lord - the US 10-year yield is now up over 10bps to around ~5.2%. Something is about to break, and the Fed will be forced to step in.https://x.com/JesseCohenInv/status/21032176322246945910.00502026-09-25T11:06:56.803586+00:002x.comfedus10yeareconomy1458https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTAhSNwXcAElrHh?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T11:06:59.112573+00:001652https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>In case you missed it: the US economy just delivered another resilience check.Initial jobless claims fell to 197,000. Fewer Americans are filing for unemployment benefits than markets expected.New home sales rose 6.4% in August, well above the 1.3% consensus forecast. July’s sales were also revised higher.That is a difficult combination for the recession narrative: limited layoffs and housing demand that continues to surprise.One month of data cannot settle the economic outlook. But the latest releases suggest the US economy is proving more resilient than many expected.Source. Bloomberg</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00402026-09-25T08:42:04.620748+00:001linkedin.comusdataeconomy1452IMAGE/media/content/1652/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-25T08:42:25.124792+00:001633@elerianmMohamed A. El-ErianFlying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone. This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now: Japanese foreign exchange intervention typically involves selling US securities to buy Yen, potentially adding yield pressures to an already sensitive Treasury market.https://x.com/elerianm/status/21031497479348023160.00502026-09-25T07:05:48.601269+00:002x.commarketsjapaneconomy1434https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_hetQbgAAxOaZ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:05:49.399160+00:001632@BullTheoryioBull TheoryBREAKING: Foreign purchases of short-term US debt just collapsed 80% in a year, falling from $250.5 billion to just $49.4 billion. Long-term US debt purchases from foreign buyers also fell 46% over the same period, a combined $410 billion reversal. This is happening right as the US needs to finance record amounts of new debt.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21030914419165842730.00502026-09-25T07:04:44.743652+00:002x.comeconomyfinancedebt1432https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-ugQVaoAA5WD-?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:04:45.168903+00:001433https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-ugQobYAAxAQz?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:04:45.202379+00:001624@gaughenKevin GaughenSomeone on Bluesky asked me to explain why it’s bad for the USA to have these skyrocketing bond yield rates. I will copy and paste my explanation here: When a country’s yields go higher it means the world is losing faith it will repay its debt. Right now, Canada and Europe are selling off US bonds to minimize their risk exposure. They’re worried the USA will collapse or default. This is causing bond prices to drop, which causes yields to rise. A VERY clear message is being sent right now by our former allies. Think about it like this: if you need a car and you have good credit, a bank will give you a low interest rate on a car loan. If you have bad credit, the bank will give you a really high interest rate. Basically, risk is priced into the interest rate. It’s the same with bond yields. Make sense?https://x.com/gaughen/status/21032617087477232160.00702026-09-25T06:57:31.067702+00:002x.combondsfinanceeconomy1425https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTBJON6WAAA210o?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:57:31.275003+00:001612@onechancefreedmEndGame MacroThe U.S. is going to crash global economies to break inflation, force yields lower and restore demand for Treasuries, even if that means crushing its own economy in the process. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and tighter global dollar liquidity are the transmission mechanism. The pain abroad is not separate from the adjustment. It is part of it.https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/21031987283162195700.003016132026-09-25T06:33:00.019455+00:002x.cominflationtreasurieseconomy1600@BullTheoryioBull Theory🚨 THIS IS NOT LOOKING GOOD. Entire US bond yield curve is going parabolic. US01Y is at a 25-month high US02Y is at a 28-month high US05Y is at a 19-year high US10Y is at a 19-year high US20Y is also at a 22-year high US30Y is at a 19-year high Higher yields across the board mean higher borrowing costs for the government, businesses, and consumers, and that's bad news for both the economy and stocks.https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21028082490158613960.00602026-09-25T06:00:12.642642+00:002x.comstocksbondseconomy1406https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS6seixb0AA7aLO?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:00:13.543818+00:001586@byHeatherLongHeather LongYikes. The 10-year bond yield climbed above 5.2% today for the first time since summer 2007. Wall Street may think this is ok, but it's jarring for Main Street. This is painful for many Americans. 1) Mortgage rates are back above 7% 2) Auto loan rates are rising swiftly now too 3) Personal loans have been a lifeline for many moderate-income Americans, but those rates are also climbing 4) Refinancing is dead. Any household or small biz hoping to refi a loan is struggling 5) Many banks are sitting on bonds that yield under 5%, so they're having to hedge their holdings (to avoid selling at losses) There's a lot of pressure building on the economy from higher borrowing costs.https://x.com/byHeatherLong/status/21032476727526278400.00502026-09-25T05:29:51.731585+00:002x.comloansbondseconomy1382https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTA5uGgWcAAcTy3?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T05:29:51.936128+00:001383https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTA7ZeoW8AAwr1W?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T05:29:51.954742+00:001574https://www.linkedin.com/in/sagar-singh-setia/Sagar Singh SetiaNothing Stops This Train!What can possibly go wrong?The global bond market is on fire, and we are approaching a stage where higher yields will hurt economic activity. The yields are breaking out as markets defeat "the house", and record diesel prices (equivalent to $230/b oil) threaten to stall the economy and raise inflation.The macros are deteriorating, and we need urgent resolution of the Middle East war and an end to the refining crisis to avert a global financial disaster. Furthermore, we believe that as hyperscalers go max to raise funds, a higher cost of capital may eventually lead to lower returns on capital. What a grand mess!https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-24T15:37:06.883131+00:001linkedin.comglobal-marketfinanceeconomy1374https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQFSlY3qdV0Xyg/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaDTca9xGsAk-/0/1790253838674?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=YGz5Ky3NJc_SAU64eXdZ-IlImeexKRHyZuP1_V6Sr7IView image2026-09-24T15:37:07.402611+00:001564@MONETARY_MAYHEMMONETARY MAYHEMIf you listen closely you can hear the printers at the federal reserve starting uphttps://x.com/MONETARY_MAYHEM/status/21028136675908449250.00402026-09-24T09:21:01.922103+00:002x.comfederalreserveprinterseconomy1363https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS6x4kpW4AAA80B?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-24T09:21:02.186197+00:001559https://www.linkedin.com/in/rawad-rouhana-4a70b618/Rawad Rouhana10-year government bond yields have undergone a remarkable repricing across several G7 economies.Germany’s reversal is particularly striking: from negative yields to around 3%.Source: FactSethttps://www.linkedin.com/in/rawad-rouhana-4a70b618/0.00602026-09-24T09:15:55.883395+00:001linkedin.comg7government-bondseconomy1357https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQH2SAVi-6oV7A/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDPXRLQJYAg-/0/1790185378789?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=rhMWdrSjPsiwPFJabKZHjk5fONcXRCSF2uqtfJlX3UEView image2026-09-24T09:15:56.192910+00:001542https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>US M2 money supply jumped +$124.9 billion in August, to a record $23.34 trillion.This marks the 28th consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$2.61 trillion.YoY, M2 grew +5.7%, its largest YoY increase since June 2022.This marks a sharp acceleration from +2.0% YoY growth seen in August 2024.Meanwhile, since the 2020 pandemic, M2 money supply has surged +$7.85 trillion, equivalent to +$1.21 trillion on average per year, or +6.5% annualized growth.US money creation is picking up speed.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00702026-09-24T08:35:14.061319+00:001linkedin.comus-moneyeconomym21349https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGjym7kgUp_Eg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDPo4xQJoAg-/0/1790189997398?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=XHsMsMPBJPgkr_SZHwSvxtY6xmHGj2C2Em7EZpv0iewView image2026-09-24T08:35:16.210095+00:001541https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>The US unemployment Rate has now been below 5% for 60 months, the 2nd longest streak in history, trailing only the 64-month streak that began in the mid-1960s.Source: Charlie Bilello</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed0.00702026-09-24T07:46:51.443880+00:001linkedin.comusunemploymenteconomy1348https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEbcib7ucVO2A/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaDFp8__G8Ac-/0/1790022504711?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=hBFaXCcdLcvp1PAauWZgaQLpJpRTiyA-ztL5lZebMHUView image2026-09-24T07:46:53.040712+00:001526The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development has cut its growth forecasts as the war drives an energy shock that is hitting Iraq’s oil-dependent economy particularly hard. The EBRD now expects growth across its regions to slow to 2.5 percent in 2026, down from 3.4 percent in 2025. Iraq’s economy is projected to contract by 12 percent this year, with the risk of a deeper downturn if export disruptions persist through the end of the year. “The problem in Iraq is disruption to exports,” EBRD Chief Economist Beata Javorcik told the AFP news agency. Meanwhile, Lebanon’s economy is expected to contract by 5 percent this year due to ongoing conflict with Israel.https://aje.news/h39n9z0.00402026-09-24T06:01:44.644823+00:005aljazeera.comforecastconflicteconomy1499@NoLimitGainsNoLimitU.S. China. Europe. Japan. The money supply keeps getting BIGGER. U.S. M2 alone grew by $1.25 TRILLION over the past year. You spend years building your savings while the financial system keeps creating more money. If those savings earn less than inflation, you’re losing purchasing power without spending a dollar.https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/21024949354128839150.00402026-09-23T16:22:42.447514+00:002x.commoney-supplyinflationeconomy1316https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS2P-r9W8AA43jU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-23T16:22:43.407528+00:001491https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: The US 10Y Note Yield rises to 5.05%, its highest level since July 2007.That's a total of +113 basis points from the low seen in March.Mortgage rates are pushing toward 7.50%.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-23T16:08:32.158122+00:001linkedin.commarketsfinanceeconomy1309https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHDba--yBuCJA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaDOsx9eJoAk-/0/1790174240846?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=xBLZ3D77v195Io2ERJ3euiZ7TKa3JH9Ky3_XQuRacrUView image2026-09-23T16:08:33.744242+00:001482https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIADespite rising yields, Japan’s net interest payments as a share of GDP are projected to remain among the lowest in the OECD in 2027. Source: Japan Economy Watch(((The Daily Shot)))@SoberLookhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00602026-09-23T15:47:41.916488+00:001linkedin.comfinancejapaneconomy1303IMAGE/media/content/1482/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-23T15:48:00.448300+00:00