Gnosly Feed - fed

The Fed's Christopher Waller's call for a 50 bps rate hike in December is about what it would take to get rates back to neutral. Ignoring his boss Kevin Warsh's call for less forward guidance, Waller averred the Fed should hike 50 bps at its next meeting if the monthly change in CPI was at least 0.3%.

Wed, 11 Nov 2026 10:13:20 +0000

The chart below shows the terminal rate, ie the maximum implied rate from the strip of SOFR futures, is about 50 bps below the LW estimate of neutral. This gap is similar to other estimates based on market-observed proxies for the neutral rate.

A 50 bps hike would likely take the terminal rate about that much higher too, taking rates back to being restrictive for the first time since early 2025. That's likely what's needed to wipe out persistently elevated inflation.

Gold after midterms, when the Fed was hiking

Tue, 10 Nov 2026 08:13:30 +0000

Source: Charles-Henry Monchau (LinkedIn)

Gold is down more than 25% from January, and traders expect another Fed hike in December. In November 1978, the same setup took another 20% off gold in a month.

Sat, 07 Nov 2026 08:00:29 +0000

Source: KatusaResearch (X)

FED: AI and Energy Shaping the Outlook for Growth and Inflation

Thu, 05 Nov 2026 05:13:30 +0000

Excerpt from the FED report, provided by Sylvain Leduc

The artificial intelligence (AI) infrastructure buildout continues to boost economic growth. The surge in AI-related investment over the past year has exceeded growth rates observed during the tech boom of the late 1990s.

These developments together have pushed up prices for consumer electronics, such as laptops and cell phones, reversing decades-long deflationary trends. After the Middle East conflict's effects dissipate, inflation is expected to gradually decline to 2% over the next two years. Solid economic growth is expected to keep unemployment close to its longer-run natural rate.

Takeaways:

AI buildout is boosting growth, with limited labor market impact so far

Strong AI-induced equipment investment
AI-related imports rising rapidly
Tech prices now experiencing inflation
Import prices of tech equipment surging

Labor market conditions are broadly balanced

Unemployment levels remain steady
Openings and seekers have converged
Post-2023 fall in entry-level job postings

Elevated inflation in energy and core goods categories

Tech prices pushing inflation up a bit
Goods and energy prices boosting inflation
Nominal wage growth moderating

Policymakers face uncertainty from AI

In this context, financial market participants expect one more 25-basis-point increase in the federal funds rate this year and additional hikes in 2027.

S&P 500 Earnings and valuation changes (pandemic to date)

Tue, 03 Nov 2026 06:21:28 +0000

No matter how extraordinary the post-COVID cycle, the basic lead-lag relationships hold. Fed tightening shrinks valuations first and earnings with a lag. There are differences in degree. 2022 tightening was the largest in decades; 2026's is a rate recalibration.

Kevin Warsh and the FED just left rates UNCHANGED. The Fed voted 10–2 to hold rates at 3.75%–4.00%. Lisa Cook and Beth Hammack preferred a 25-basis-point increase.

Thu, 29 Oct 2026 09:15:50 +0000

From Walsh's speech:

• Growth upgraded from “solid” to “strong.”

• Domestic spending remains resilient.

• Inflation remains elevated.

Meanwhile, September’s assurance that its hike would bring inflation down faster has disappeared.

Kind-of sounds like 2008 - The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been visiting big banks to review their loans to private credit firms

Tue, 06 Oct 2026 10:25:57 +0000

Kind of sounds like 2008... right before Lehman Brothers failed. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York has been visiting big banks to review their loans to private credit firms, with Fed officials going into J.P. Morgan, Wells Fargo, Barclays, and Morgan Stanley with questions about exposure, risk management, and collateral quality. This doesn’t happen unless there is noise coming from the repo desks. There’s a major financial institution at the threshold of not being able to fund itself on the Street. First check for the NY Fed is to identify which other institution(s) have material counterparty exposure.

Signs of Strength in U.S. Economy Power Stocks

Wed, 30 Sep 2026 15:06:49 +0000

Second-quarter GDP growth was revised upward, and the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation held steady in August.

Good lord - the US 10-year yield is now up over 10...

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 11:06:56 +0000

Good lord - the US 10-year yield is now up over 10bps to around ~5.2%. Something is about to break, and the Fed will be forced to step in.

Want to know what the Fed does next? Don't listen ...

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 08:37:37 +0000

Want to know what the Fed does next? Don't listen to the Fed. Watch the 2-year Treasury yield. Since 1991 it has turned before the Fed in 9 of 10 rate cycles, usually 7 to 16 months early. This year, the 2-year bottomed in February. The Fed hiked in September. Today the 2-year is 4.85%. The Fed is at 3.875%. That gap is the market saying one hike isn't the end of it. Be honest: did you see this hike coming?

1/2 Wall Street overwhelmingly believes the Fed wi...

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 05:43:06 +0000

1/2 Wall Street overwhelmingly believes the Fed will NOT hike on October 28, as it is a week before midterm election day. Makes sense... so why is the market still pricing in a >50% chance of a hike?

This is still shaping up to be the biggest story o...

Fri, 25 Sep 2026 05:43:04 +0000

This is still shaping up to be the biggest story of the second half of October. If these probabilities hold, the market is DEMANDING a rate hike on October 28th, a week before the midterms. Trump will lose it, and Warsh will become the new Jay Powell. If these probabilities hold, it means the market has lost patience with the Fed's easy policy over the last two years, which is why long-term yields rose during a 2024 to 2026 easing cycle for the first time in 50+ years (see the repost below). If the Fed sits idle while the market prices in a rate hike, long-term yields could spike off the top of the page. Of course, payrolls, CPI, retail sales, or Q3 earnings could disappoint, and that probability could drop to well under 50%. But if it doesn't, Warsh might be in an impossible situation.

The US 10yr yield just jumped 10 points following ...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 16:23:02 +0000

The US 10yr yield just jumped 10 points following the release of the S&P Composite PMI which came in at 58.4, the highest since July of 2021. "Firms’ input costs have meanwhile jumped in September at the steepest rate for four years, with fuel and transport costs spiking higher thanks to the rise in oil prices seen during the month, which will add further to the upward pressure on selling prices and inflation in the coming months." ~Chris Williamson, S&P Global Market Intelligence Odds of another Fed rate hike in October now sit at 71%, up from 55% yesterday.

Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes

Sat, 19 Sep 2026 05:05:04 +0000

Three words from Kevin Warsh have Wall Street wondering how far the Fed will go with rate hikes

As nicely explained by Dan Runkevicius, the 10-yea...

Sat, 19 Sep 2026 04:22:12 +0000

As nicely explained by Dan Runkevicius, the 10-year yield reached 5% mainly because markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer—not because inflation expectations or the term premium increased.This could mean investors are preparing for a tougher Fed response to persistent supply-driven inflation, raising the risk of stagflation.Here's the full story 👇 The US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 5% for the first time since 2007.Many assume this is mainly because investors fear higher inflation or demand more compensation for holding long-term bonds.But the data suggest a different explanation.Inflation expectations have barely moved since the war began. Most of the increase has instead come from higher real yields.The San Francisco Fed’s model tells a similar story. Since the end of July:Expected short-term interest rates over the next decade: +25 basis pointsTerm premium: −3 basis pointsIn other words, investors increasingly believe interest rates will remain higher for much longer—not simply that long-term bonds have become riskier.This matters because growth forecasts have not improved meaningfully. Meanwhile, rate expectations have risen most sharply following disappointing inflation data.The market may therefore be preparing for a more aggressive Fed response to persistent, supply-driven inflation—a potentially stagflationary scenario.That is a very different explanation for the 5% yield milestone.Source: Dan Runkevicius

Bank of England defies Fed’s rate-hike lead, leaving rates unchanged

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 19:19:13 +0000

Bank of England defies Fed’s rate-hike lead, leaving rates unchanged

This is going to be so interesting FED hiking - wh...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 16:16:00 +0000

This is going to be so interesting FED hiking - while Bond yields putting in massive top! Weekly Reversal Candle on US10YR here - and I say it was the TOP.

Gold is up strongly today, the day after the Fed's...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 16:09:13 +0000

Gold is up strongly today, the day after the Fed's widely anticipated rate hike. To understand why, a little history.... In December 2015, the market expected the Fed to hike at its mid-month meeting. I made a pretty bold call that this would mark the bottom for the price, as the expected event that was the basis for so many gold short trades would become a fait accompli, and the traders would move on. At that point in time, Western traders were making the gold price, and few were taking it. Gold soared after that initial Fed hike, and through the subsequent ones, and many of our junior mining recommendations jumped 4x-5x over the next six months. Today we find a similar, but not identical, situation. Western traders have also leaned on gold in recent weeks in anticipation of a Fed rate hike, but with a lesser effect than in the previous example. That's because while the West is again making the gold price, others are now gleefully taking it. So the short gold trade is over after the Fed's move yesterday...and the powerful underlying demand is taking control once again. Buckle up.

Stocks rise, lifted by falling oil and yields as market attempts comeback after Fed sell-off

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:59:10 +0000

Stocks are rising as falling oil prices and yields help improve market conditions, with the market attempting a comeback following a Fed sell-off.

Good luck with that multi-year Bull Market. The Fe...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:55:30 +0000

Good luck with that multi-year Bull Market. The Fed just hiked right into a massive slowdown.

BREAKING: President Trump says inflation is “too h...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:32:19 +0000

BREAKING: President Trump says inflation is “too high” and he wants Fed Chair Warsh to be independent.Trump also says he “still has confidence” in Fed Chair Warsh despite today’s rate hike.

Trump fails to bend the Fed to his will...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:11:13 +0000

Trump fails to bend the Fed to his will

Rising Rates Will Make Private Equity’s Bad Year a Lot Worse

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:09:35 +0000

The Fed’s hike is expected to wreak havoc on funds already struggling to sell companies and return cash to investors.

BREAKING: The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls o...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:06:12 +0000

BREAKING: The Dow Jones Industrial Average falls over -500 points after the Fed hikes rates and signals future rate hikes ahead. It’s incredible to think that exactly 12 months ago the Fed was cutting interest rates.Talk about a turn of events.

Not all Fed hiking cycles are equal.Historically, ...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:04:25 +0000

Not all Fed hiking cycles are equal.Historically, the higher the inflation when the Fed begins to hike, the worse equities have performed.The faster the tightening cycle, the worse equities have performed.Source: David Marlin, UBS, Factset

Was the Fed's hike yesterday just a credibility fi...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 15:03:53 +0000

Was the Fed's hike yesterday just a credibility fix? When Warsh took the reins of the Fed, he set out to completely reform the way it conducts monetary policy.He even appointed a task force for basically every pillar of the Fed's policy:- Balance-sheet management- Communication/forward guidance- The data the Fed relies on- Productivity and jobs in an era of transformation- Most important of all, how inflation is measuredOn the last one, he argued that the current inflation models are outdated in today's economy, and that everything from how data is sourced to how it's modeled should be rethought.That obviously stirred up a lot of speculation. But in response to nearly every question during his first press conference in June, the answer was some combination of "no forward guidance" and "we've got a task force for that."Fast-forward to July and then to yesterday. Treasury yields spiked, and Warsh suddenly became very straightforward.At July’s meeting, he glossed over his rethinking of how inflation should be measured and returned to a hard 2% target. "There's only one target, and it's 2%." He also started tossing out the Fed's textbook inflation measures: CPI, PPI, and PCE.Another sign that Warsh may have been forced to hike is that neither the economic data nor the Fed's own projections have materially changed since he took over.Back in June, the FOMC was coming off five years of above-target inflation. And Warsh himself admitted this:"For more than five years, inflation has been running above target. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."In Warsh's own words, productivity and economic growth "looked strong," just as they did yesterday. And the FOMC's median inflation projections for the rest of the year were nearly identical to yesterday's projections.Yet, the Fed didn't budge on rates. And whenever someone from the press challenged him on that, the answer was blunt: "I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself"; "We've got a task force for that."Even though there's still not much information about those task forces, what we do know is that the Warsh didn't wait for their findings and hiked yesterday.So whatever the real intention behind this reform is, the bond market may have really forced his hand on this one.

President Trump is now saying the Fed should have ...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 12:28:50 +0000

President Trump is now saying the Fed should have cut interest rates to "1% or lower" today.Prior to today's rate hike, the target Fed Funds Rate was 3.50% to 3.75%, and it now stands at 3.75% to 4.00%.This means that after today's rate hike, President Trump is now calling for a rate cut of at least 300 basis points.Currently, the largest single-meeting rate cut in US history was 100 basis points in 2020 and 2008.President Trump's plan implies a rate cut of 3 times the current record.Q4 is going to be interesting to say the least.

Central bank watchers now overwhelmingly expect no...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 08:58:39 +0000

Central bank watchers now overwhelmingly expect not only a Fed rate increase this week, but a second hike before the end of the yearSource: Nick Timiraos@NickTimiraosWSJ

Once the Fed starts tightening, it rarely stops af...

Thu, 17 Sep 2026 04:15:25 +0000

Once the Fed starts tightening, it rarely stops after one move. Historically, hiking cycles persist for some time, with the 10-year yield generally rising by more than 100bp along the way.Judging by the history surveyed by DB’s Jim Reid, investors should brace for the 10-year to reach 6% before the Fed is done.Source. TME, DB

Markets are bracing for a rate hike.So, how do US ...

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 07:16:17 +0000

Markets are bracing for a rate hike.So, how do US stocks usually behave following the first hike of a Fed tightening cycle?The S&P 500 has declined by an average of -4.0% over the 6 weeks following the first Fed rate hike of a cycle across 7 such episodes since 1988.Subsequently, however, stocks recovered all of those losses over the next 5-6 weeks on average.Then, in the 6 months following the first hike, the S&P 500 returned +4.0% on average.After 12 months, the S&P 500’s average gain surged to +9.0%, with positive returns occurring in every episode except 2022.Fed rate hikes have historically been great buying opportunities.

The Fed could be about to make a policy mistake if...

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 05:43:42 +0000

The Fed could be about to make a policy mistake if they hike. 2s5s10s about to go positive, showing the market is pricing multiple hikes from the Fed that will slow growth. The K-shaped US consumer is already facing real income headwinds and are most exposed to rate hikes and elevated mortgage rates. AI capex and boomer spending is less rate sensitive anyway... so the hike merely hits the most vulnerable after a supply-driven energy shock.

The Fed will hike rates next week and December, wa...

Tue, 15 Sep 2026 03:45:57 +0000

The Fed will hike rates next week and December, warns JP Morgan 🚨🚨Source: BofA

10-year Treasury yield hits 5% before reversing as traders await Fed meeting

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:44:11 +0000

10-year Treasury yield hits 5% before reversing as traders await Fed meeting

Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 20:42:37 +0000

Counting the votes: Warsh faces a tough battle as the Fed girds for expected interest rate hike

Warsh and Trump on collision course as investors e...

Mon, 14 Sep 2026 05:14:53 +0000

Warsh and Trump on collision course as investors expect Fed to raise rates

The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed...

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 17:51:19 +0000

The market is now pricing in a 60% chance of a Fed hike at the September 16 meeting, with the odds going up to 71% by the October meeting and 86% by year-end.Source: Charlie Bilello

Imagine the Fed raising rates with a $8T refinanci...

Mon, 07 Sep 2026 04:29:02 +0000

Imagine the Fed raising rates with a $8T refinancing wall (over 25% of US GDP) maturing in <1 year. Rolling it at even 25 basis points higher adds roughly $20 billion in annualized interest expense on the first wave alone; the effect compounds as more notes and bills come due.

Nobody saw this one coming.Wall Street expected +5...

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 06:08:38 +0000

Nobody saw this one coming.Wall Street expected +55,000 jobs in August.The US economy delivered +162,000.That's 3x consensus. 👇📊 The headline numbers:→ August: +162,000 → July: revised UP to +21,000 (from -23,000) → June: revised UP to +31,000 (from +20,000) → Unemployment: 4.1% (unchanged) → Participation rate: 61.6% (up from 61.4%)Two months of "the labor market is cracking" narratives... revised away with a combined +55,000.🏗️ And here's what makes it different:For months, healthcare was carrying the entire jobs market. Not this time.→ Hospitality: +59,000 → Education: +42,000 → Construction: +22,000 → Manufacturing: +16,000Broad-based. Cyclical. Real.📈 The bigger picture:2025 average: ~10,000 jobs/month 2026 average so far: ~80,000 jobs/monthThat's an 8x acceleration.💡 Why it matters for markets:A hot labor market is great news for Main Street. For Wall Street, it's more complicated.The case for Fed easing just got weaker. Expect pressure on stocks, crypto and gold, with yields and the dollar catching a bid.Good news for the economy. Not necessarily good news for the "rate cuts are coming" trade.Question is: does this print change your Fed call? Source: BLS

Warsh Sets the Tone for Fed’s Road Ahead

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 06:46:13 +0000

Watch: Warsh Sets the Tone for Fed’s Road Ahead

Another buy week ahead... 🚨 After Warsh’s hawkish ...

Mon, 31 Aug 2026 05:51:22 +0000

Another buy week ahead... 🚨 After Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech, the market is now looking straight at the jobs data.Tuesday: JOLTS + ISM ManufacturingWednesday: ADP + Treasury buybacksThursday: ISM Services + Jobless ClaimsFriday: NONFARM PAYROLLS + UNEMPLOYMENTThe jobs report could be the biggest catalyst.Right now, the Fed is watching inflation and employment.

At Jackson Hole, Fed chair Warsh hinted at a rate ...

Sun, 30 Aug 2026 16:01:09 +0000

At Jackson Hole, Fed chair Warsh hinted at a rate hike, and gold and silver gave back their late-week gains. But the last time the Fed hiked a total of 525 basis points, gold barely moved before more than doubling. A quarter point won't dent $40 trillion in debt, record central-bank buying, or silver's five-year deficit. Today's piece lays out what happens next. A Rate Hike Doesn’t Change the Case for Gold and Silver

The expectation of the Fed interest rates hike can...

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 06:09:13 +0000

The expectation of the Fed interest rates hike cannot prevent Chinese from buying gold, because the higher interest rates, the faster the expansion of US treasury and the less reliable the USD. Raising interest rates is a suicidal act!

“The San Francisco Fed has updated its estimates o...

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 06:01:39 +0000

“The San Francisco Fed has updated its estimates of the economy’s total-factor productivity, and the results are not pretty. In contrast, during the dot-com years labor and capital inputs were yielding much better economic growth.” - Bloomberg

Get ready for the next yen intervention... The yen...

Sat, 29 Aug 2026 06:01:10 +0000

Get ready for the next yen intervention... The yen has reclaimed 160. In under a month, over 50% of the combined ~$100B intervention has already been reversed. If this run rate holds, the Fed would have to print ~$50B a month just to stop the BoJ from selling USTs. To put that

Best thing kevin could do to lower rates is to rea...

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 17:38:01 +0000

Best thing kevin could do to lower rates is to reaffirm Fed commitment to PCE until it hits 2%. Suggesting an index change last meeting was shocking and revealed low levels of competence. Note kevin is already famous for poor judgement by being hawkish into and even after the GFC

There are two types of inflation: What the governm...

Thu, 27 Aug 2026 06:56:14 +0000

There are two types of inflation: What the government reports and what the real world is experiencing. We all know which one to believe. Just wait until the Fed points to the blue line — or a similar measure — to justify easing financial conditions, even as inflation continues