https://gnosly.com/feed/france/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3209@BobgonzaleBobbob gonzales<p>Swiss 10-year bonds yield roughly 0.5%. France is near 5%. That is a gap of about 450 basis points — the price investors now demand to lend to France rather than Switzerland. </p><p>France’s spread over German Bunds has also moved above 150 bps, a crisis-era warning signal.</p>https://x.com/BobgonzaleBob/status/21128998111584747970.01102026-10-21T16:39:27.668011+00:002x.comfrancebondsswitzerlandeconomy3061https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVKHLTgWkAAimMt?format=jpgImage2026-10-21T16:39:29.306588+00:003207@NGurushinaNatalia Gurushina<p>If the average yield gets stuck above 5%, net interest outlays could exceed 5% of GDP in 5 years, meaning more spending cuts elsewhere or even wider deficits, since government revenue is already &gt;52% of GDP (=&gt; no room to hike taxes)</p>https://x.com/NGurushina/status/21128768744646496590.00402026-10-21T13:22:17.344011+00:002x.comfranceyieldseconomy3059https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVJySLcWwAAinq3?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:22:18.512334+00:003206@ThierryBretonThierry Breton<p>Source: Thierry Breton (X)</p>https://x.com/ThierryBreton/status/21128395424201690550.00502026-10-21T13:13:29.485257+00:002x.comfrancebondseconomy3058https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVJQXQxXQAACikD?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:13:30.516380+00:003203@Frenchie_Frenchie<p>Source: Frenchie (X)</p>https://x.com/Frenchie_/status/21128346447898872350.00352026-10-21T13:00:16.004749+00:002x.comfrancebondseconomy3055https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVJL6VXWMAA5igx?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:00:17.589813+00:003174https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-berezin-1289b87/Peter Berezin<p><br></p>https://lnkd.in/p/dE52-dQ80.00302026-10-21T04:36:25.915506+00:001linkedin.comfranceitalyeueconomy3034IMAGE/media/content/3174/20261021-debt-italy-france.jpg20261021-debt-italy-france.jpgjpg2026-10-21T04:40:29.975952+00:003122@tomaspueyoTomas Pueyo<p>Source: Tomas Pueyo (X)</p>https://x.com/tomaspueyo/status/21124702361592181480.00402026-10-20T10:27:32.428297+00:002x.comeducationoecdfrance2982https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVD62ioXkAAGU1G?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-20T10:27:33.553290+00:003121@tomaspueyoTomas Pueyo<p>Source: Tomas Pueyo (X)</p>https://x.com/tomaspueyo/status/21124702309541110330.00502026-10-20T10:23:46.625401+00:002x.comeducationfranceeu2981https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVD66FkXMAAAuMB?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-20T10:23:47.693155+00:003055<p>No one is addressing the core problems that the country faces</p>https://www.economist.com/europe/2026/10/18/expect-violent-protests-to-erupt-in-france-again0.00302026-10-19T11:52:25.645981+00:0029economist.comfranceeu2894IMAGE/media/content/3055/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-19T11:53:00.925451+00:003006@JustinUSAJustin<p>Source: JustinUSA (X)</p>https://x.com/JustinUSA/status/21116233934264322830.00402026-10-18T14:00:38.489807+00:002x.comfranceeuparis2842https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU3-SNTXgAAb94Y?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-18T14:00:40.065331+00:003004@LouisPisanoLouis Pisano<p>Source: LouisPisano</p>https://x.com/LouisPisano/status/21114545454612525260.00502026-10-18T08:38:22.793106+00:002x.comfranceeu2840https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU1ktQyXoAAkm0f?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-18T08:38:23.261438+00:002937@StoneDunkDuncan Stone<p>Source: StoneDunk (X)</p>https://x.com/StoneDunk/status/21106735559817465970.00602026-10-16T21:04:02.545202+00:002x.comfranceeuparis2769https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUqeaUrWoAAeZCo?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-16T21:04:03.106755+00:002839@Hexagone_orgHexagone - La France en chiffres<p>Source: Hexagone_org (X), quoting IMF report</p>https://x.com/Hexagone_org/status/21099503252767335710.00502026-10-14T08:56:29.138829+00:002x.comfranceeueconomy2655https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUgHncjWsAAMrVd?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-14T08:56:29.739279+00:002753@ParrattarnaAnonymous<p>The Yellow Vests, farmers, railroad workers, the unemployed, Gen Z, high school students, and French university students will all come together in Paris to protest!</p>https://x.com/Parrattarna/status/21095711078208107140.00402026-10-12T14:48:35.215298+00:002x.comparisprotestfrance2569https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUazu1fXEAAbbUX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-12T14:48:35.765791+00:002734@erwanlenoanErwan Le Noan<p>Source: Erwan Le Noan (X)</p>https://www.pewresearch.org/short-reads/2026/10/09/french-adults-stand-out-for-their-economic-pessimism/?ref=gnosly0.00402026-10-12T09:17:48.767235+00:002x.comfranceeconomy2553https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUZfiUeXkAAs5q7?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-12T09:17:49.145038+00:002690@RiccardoTrezziRiccardo Trezzi<p>In 2001, however, Switzerland enshrined an optimal fiscal rule in its constitution and subsequently implemented it to the letter, with extraordinary results.</p>https://x.com/RiccardoTrezzi/status/21093403878819885790.00602026-10-11T20:01:41.918786+00:002x.comfranceswitzerlanddebt2510https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUXh5uLW0AIEnvf?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-11T20:01:42.478521+00:002665@SergeZakaDr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge)<p>The famous "we already went through this in 1976" is now nothing more than a vague myth. </p><p>In 50 years, the severity of droughts has tripled in France, mainly due to summer rainfall deficits and the increase in evapotranspiration caused by rising temperatures. </p><p>And this is particularly alarming, because this phenomenon is self-reinforcing: drier soil heats up more under the effect of solar radiation. The reduction in evaporation decreases the natural cooling of the soil, thereby promoting a rise in surface temperatures and an increased transfer of heat to the atmosphere. This warming intensifies the evaporative demand of the air, accelerates the drying out of vegetation and soils that are still moist, and thus worsens the drought. </p>https://x.com/SergeZaka/status/21088538898144627770.00502026-10-11T08:17:57.060202+00:002x.comfrancedroughtclimate2484https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUQg4yTWIAAfxES?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-11T08:17:57.510154+00:002611@StefanFSchubertStefan Schubert<p>On this metric, the US comes apart more from European countries like France, Italy, and Britain than recent reporting may have suggested.</p>https://x.com/StefanFSchubert/status/21088672904272447450.00402026-10-10T14:16:13.133928+00:002x.comusbondsukfrancedebt2430https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUQy64oXwAARb6W?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-10T14:16:15.043437+00:002597<p>Students say they are desperate to get back to class, but conditions are so bad that the protests must continue.</p><p>“There aren’t enough chairs or desks to go round, so some students have to stand up,” Mohammed said. “Classes can be so packed you can’t interact with the teacher. In this year’s heatwaves, it felt like 40 degrees in overcrowded classrooms with no shade or curtains. It was so hot my brain couldn’t function.”</p>https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/oct/10/school-protesters-sevran-paris-suburb-france0.00402026-10-10T10:05:27.816941+00:0027theguardian.comfranceeducationprotests2415IMAGE/media/content/2597/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-10T10:07:24.599906+00:002591@MaMoMVPYLars Christensen<p>Source: Lars Christensen (X)</p>https://x.com/MaMoMVPY/status/21087606510404611740.00502026-10-10T09:37:22.979120+00:002x.combelgiumfranceeueconomy2411https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUPSmomW0AAOmt5?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-10T09:37:23.931293+00:002515@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>Around €215B of French company bonds are now considered safer than French government debt. </p><p>That is 38% of France’s high-grade corporate bond market. </p><p>At the start of 2026, it was just €12B. </p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21085221111240992400.00502026-10-09T11:54:41.564220+00:002x.comfrancedebteu2342IMAGE/media/content/2515/20261009-france-as-flag.jpg20261009-france-as-flag.jpgjpg2026-10-09T12:10:18.577397+00:002491https://www.linkedin.com/in/peter-berezin-1289b87/Peter Berezin<p>And how are those kids doing in school? Not so well, it turns out: Even among second-generation immigrants (those born in France), half are illiterate according to the OECD. Given France’s poor demographic outlook and lack of political will to cut the size of government, the odds of a fiscal crisis continue to rise. France has the biggest bond market in Europe, so the fallout from such a crisis would be vast.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dQSmPXMr0.00702026-10-09T06:18:11.145734+00:001linkedin.comfranceeu2311https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFteFJ6iQH4jg/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aEegkg6JQAc-/0/1791513217310?e=1793232000&v=beta&t=BdnSCV8bXJWDo2kBs7CLL9rdjWprwn73aw8m0rai9BwView image2026-10-09T06:18:13.363375+00:002460@lugaricanoLuis GaricanoIn complete agreement with @paulkrugman's analysis today on France. 1. France is probably too big to save for Europe. the potential for a serious European crisis is real. 2. The problem is pretty straightforward: the pensions are unsustainable, and the extreme right and extreme left are determined to block sensible reforms. This makes any potential bailout politically impossible for its partners. https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/whats-the-ma…https://x.com/lugaricano/status/21081571270553029880.00702026-10-08T12:54:53.588111+00:002x.comeuropefrancepensions2270https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUGtdPBWEAA5Yuj?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-08T12:54:55.328608+00:002456@DhavalVJoshiDhaval Joshi<p>While France's public debt ratio is the same as the US, its PRIVATE debt ratio is WAY HIGHER. With both maxed out, there's no easy way out. The only question is how much more political pain to force the adjustment.</p>https://x.com/DhavalVJoshi/status/21077872860960442760.00402026-10-08T10:46:59.959972+00:002x.comusfrancedebt2266https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBXMXKWQAApoi9?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-08T10:47:01.772886+00:002385@TheoLaubryThéo Laubry<p>The rhetoric of opposition candidates is symptomatic of a country that has lost touch with fiscal reality. "France has more than $1 trillion in debt coming due by 2030, and next year it should sell a record of about $380 billion in debt on a market where once-reliable sources of demand have evaporated."</p>https://x.com/TheoLaubry/status/21074115231821540720.00552026-10-07T06:37:46.081938+00:002x.comfranceeconomydebt2198IMAGE/media/content/2385/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-07T06:40:04.830519+00:002378@EdwardConardEdward Conard<p> At the same time, she has also proposed reducing the retirement age from 62 to 60.</p>https://x.com/home0.004523772026-10-07T06:00:29.864286+00:002x.combudgetmarine-le-penfrance2377@GreenPlusAnERuss Greene<p>Source: Russ Greene (X)</p>https://x.com/GreenPlusAnE/status/21076227376825553240.004523782026-10-07T06:00:29.360568+00:002x.comfranceseniorseconomy2192https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT_HHrFWQAAw3BL?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-07T06:00:29.812935+00:002361A bold joint letter suggests confrontation loomshttps://www.economist.com/europe/2026/10/05/germany-and-france-want-eu-storm-gates-for-chinas-trade-surge0.00402026-10-06T14:00:22.317975+00:0029economist.comchinaeufrancegermany2179IMAGE/media/content/2361/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-10-06T14:00:58.771970+00:002355After years of overspending, the country has emerged as one of Europe’s weakest links. Investors are bracing for things to get worse.https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/france-debt-bonds-spending-c79815570.00402026-10-06T13:56:45.252358+00:0023wsj.comeuropefranceinvestors2279@ericdor_econoEric Dor<p>Source: Eric Dor (X)</p>https://x.com/ericdor_econo/status/21069976614170216050.00402026-10-05T12:56:16.939098+00:002x.combanksfrancebonds2101https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT2PFvvWEAA3isD?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T12:56:17.200832+00:002272https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-runkevicius/Dan Runkevicius<p>Never in this century have bonds been more interesting than they are today. But this time it's not Treasuries.On Friday, the extra yield investors demanded to hold French rather than German 10-year bonds hit 159 basis points, its widest level since late 2011.France and Germany issue their own debt, and investors price each country's risks separately. But both use the euro and follow the same ECB interest-rate policy.So what gives?The best explanation so far is that the market is pricing in the risk of a Frexit after the election.French five-year CDS under the 2014 contract costs 86.6 basis points, versus 35 under the 2003 contract. The reason is that the 2014 rules cover euro redenomination more clearly, while the 2003 rules don't. (H/t Emmanuel Ferry.)That means the 51.6-basis-point gap is a proxy for euro-exit risk. The last time the gap grew so aggressively was during the 2017 election.Japan is another possible source of selling. Japanese investors held about $145 billion of French bonds in July. That's roughly 4% of France's marketable government debt and 6.6% of Japan's overseas bond holdings.After currency hedging, a 4.9% French bond yield works out to about 3.4% for Japanese investors, not much more than they can earn at home.Not surprisingly, their French holdings have already fallen 2.5% since year-end. If more investors decide the extra yield isn't worth the risk, Japan could help push French yields higher in the near term.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dCxtYKFN0.00602026-10-05T10:07:13.736764+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondseconomy2094https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQH9IxU95nWGOQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaEK.py8JYAk-/0/1791185559185?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=CqPYID6N_46xWtrUcs20shh7vHZ5sZQm2YPQjBLrEW8View image2026-10-05T10:07:14.853205+00:002261https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/Wim Grommen<p>Japan Just Broke The French Bond MarketOne Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper. Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street. The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis. France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit. When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust. If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction. We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement: Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like. Post by Stern Drew on X</p>https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/0.00602026-10-05T09:00:18.607041+00:001linkedin.combondsjapanfrance2085https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQG_F_PlZzPnhQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaELAmJwJkAk-/0/1791186068397?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=xZWA8CHpnS2r9ADuNBieRYweiQD_aoT7QHI9bUJZAEAView image2026-10-05T09:00:19.680600+00:002260https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruth-carson-3a22897/Ruth Carson<p>🇫🇷 French Bonds at Risk of More Japanese Selling on Outsized Stake 🇫🇷Japanese investors hold far more French bonds than benchmark weightings recommend, raising the threat of a new wave of selling that could deepen France’s debt rout.A Bloomberg analysis estimates investors in the Asian nation own ¥23 trillion ($145 billion) worth of French bonds as of July. That’s 6.6% of the Asian nation’s total overseas debt holdings, making them the most overweight in the euro region relative to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.France is facing a bond crisis just as sentiment for the nation’s debt has soured on missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction. dent sentiment on the nation’s debt. While Japanese investors have remained steadfast holders of French paper through multiple episodes of political and market turmoil, the risks of further selling may be higher this time around.That’s because rising yields at home are making Japanese government debt more attractive, boosting incentives to repatriate money and potentially eroding a support pillar for the European debt. Among investors already positioned for further drops in French bonds is Fivestar Asset Management Co.’s Hideo Shimomura.“This is just the beginning,” Shimomura said of France’s debt selloff. “If the European Central Bank just leaves things alone, there are concerns that, judging from the European debt crisis, France’s 10-year government bond yield could rise as high as 7%." Read More: https://lnkd.in/gc-CU_f6 Reporting with Masaki Kondo in Tokyo.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dsPUGsxt0.00802026-10-05T08:53:01.296137+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondsjapan2084https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQEF5zYp_MMpIQ/feedshare-shrink_1280/B56aEKyfLUHQAQ-/0/1791182369710?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=FXL5405HoEL7RQUmJIkc-LlUg0u7Qag3WfUzhiL4W7QView image2026-10-05T08:53:01.974784+00:002196@NeoptolemusXNeoptolemus<p>Markets see Athens as a safer bet than Paris. </p>https://x.com/NeoptolemusX/status/21064241549585698360.00402026-10-04T13:37:54.772032+00:002x.comfrancedebt2003https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTuFXLGWUAAzOVj?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T13:37:56.385480+00:002192@FurkanCCTVFurkan Yildirim<p>France is the second-largest economy in the Eurozone, with around ten times as much debt as Greece had in 2010. France is now paying more interest than Italy. The risk premium is at its highest level since 2012. The cost of insuring against a French sovereign default has more than doubled in a single month. Trash cans are burning in the streets. And in France, calls for a debt haircut are already being made openly. I've spent a ton of time over the last few days on a new macro deep dive. Nearly 30 charts and graphs, data from 2011 to today, all prepped to draw clean comparisons. Here's what it's about:</p>https://x.com/FurkanCCTV/status/21066501745838698300.00602026-10-04T09:13:24.114403+00:002x.comfranceeuro-crisismacro-deep-dive1998https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTxTKtaXwAETf3Y?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T09:13:25.786505+00:002189@HannoLustigHanno Lustig<p>Why France, why now? Over the last couple of years, the French political class has been signaling to the bond market that its pensioners/boomers are the de facto senior claimants on the French Treasury's revenue. And that's not what bond investors wanted to hear, especially now that they're being asked to absorb a much larger share of issuance than a couple of years ago.</p>https://thetwocents.substack.com/p/le-boomer-spread0.00702026-10-04T06:54:41.932793+00:002x.comfrancedebt1994https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTvwa9Da4AAFjVJ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T06:54:42.532958+00:002180@PedderSophieSophie Pedder<p>The pitiful level of public debate in France about the debt situation next to the scale of the bond-market attack on France last week is just staggering</p>https://x.com/PedderSophie/status/21063604131853148650.00402026-10-04T05:14:27.505539+00:002x.comfrancebond-marketdebt1983https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTtLobeXYAAApB_?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-04T05:14:28.772955+00:002155@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®<p>France is where the developed-world debt problem is cracking first. Its 10-year yield has climbed to 4.7%, the highest since 2008, and the gap over German bonds just blew out to the widest since the eurozone debt crisis. The setup is textbook. Government debt is 119% of GDP, the most since 1978, the deficit is running over 5%, and a paralyzed political system cannot pass the 54 billion euros of cuts needed to slow it. So France has to sell a record pile of new debt next year while refinancing cheap pandemic-era bonds at much higher rates. Interest costs compound from here. This is the bond market doing the job politicians will not. France is just the first to crack. Every government that borrowed freely into a world of higher rates is on the same road, the US included. The era of free money is over, and the bond market is sending the bill.<span style="background-color: rgba(255, 255, 255, 0.03); color: rgb(231, 233, 234);">France</span></p>https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/21060304565546029580.00502026-10-03T06:18:26.254018+00:002x.comfrancebondsdebt1957https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTofii-XwAAuq52?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T06:18:27.242712+00:002154https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-talwar-82847b261/Aman Talwar<p><span style="color: rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.9); background-color: rgb(255, 255, 0);">France's Credit Default Swaps soar to highest level in 13 years</span></p>https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-talwar-82847b261/0.00402026-10-03T06:05:00.587150+00:001linkedin.comfrance1956https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFcRgZNc2SJNw/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aD7PVZ1HQAc-/0/1790921496418?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=5PLOoMn1cXc6vqgdBYwYxGGSl1Pmv-WcJxW02Fx2K1YView image2026-10-03T06:05:01.740441+00:002144@AnthonyML_Anthony Morlet-Lavidalie<p>Markets now value French debt as if it were that of a BB+-rated issuer, well below the rank assigned by rating agencies. "Welcome to junk bonds" (junk bond in good French)!</p>https://x.com/AnthonyML_/status/21060402910904855750.00602026-10-03T05:20:17.114088+00:002x.comfrancedebtbonds1946https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTonGadWoAAAw8P?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-03T05:20:19.121028+00:002138@C_BarraudChristophe Barraud<p>France’s Troubles Are Deepening as Investors Head for the Exit</p>https://x.com/C_Barraud/status/21059930534292484350.00502026-10-02T16:39:29.271584+00:002x.cominvestorsfrancebloomberg1940https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTn9hRzWUAAuGjO?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-02T16:39:29.832583+00:002124@WxNB_Nahel Belgherze<p>Uncharted territory.</p>https://x.com/WxNB_/status/21059528216484249780.00402026-10-02T12:17:22.089821+00:002x.comfrancedroughtsoil-moisture1927https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTnY7eaXEAE1j6A?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T12:17:23.429964+00:002120@financialjuiceFinancialJuiceFrance has proposed plan to release 50 mln barrels of diesel from Europe and 50 mln barrels of crude oil across IEA members - Source Familiar with Discussion.https://x.com/financialjuice/status/21059305535770461510.00402026-10-02T10:02:56.327897+00:002x.comfranceoilenergy1448@SergeZakaDr. Serge Zaka (Dr. Zarge)Translated from French The 2026 drought figures are going nuts! It's happening! It's ticking all the boxes for records that characterize a drought! 1⃣ Severity: The 2026 drought is becoming the most severe ever observed in France, and it's not even over yet (Graph 1 - severity = intensity x duration). Drought severity has nearly tripled in France over the past 50 years. 2⃣ Intensity: The 2026 drought is the most intense ever observed, with two peaks. The first in August, with the absolute record for French soil dryness: only 10% of the French soil's water potential remained! The second peak is currently underway, totally unprecedented in its intensity OFF-SEASON. A total break from anything we've seen so far (graph 2). 3⃣ Extent: The 2026 drought is the most widespread at the level of annual intensity records (map 3 for the year) but also seasonally. Nationally, it's the latest-onset drought ever observed (map 4 for September).https://x.com/SergeZaka/status/21024710739167397020.00702026-09-23T08:51:42.546372+00:002x.comfrancedrought20261268https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS14Dx3WoAAZy-c?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-23T08:51:42.798066+00:001269https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS14jqPXcAEjJ32?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-23T08:51:42.829164+00:001270https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS15U7LWEAAQY0g?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-09-23T08:51:42.865497+00:001271https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS15tcWWkAAZbE7?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-09-23T08:51:42.905923+00:001398French President Emmanuel Macron has told US media that he does not “want to engage in a confrontation with any country, but we are ready to be more engaged in order to protect some capacities in order to make this transit possible”, regarding the Strait of Hormuz. In an interview with ABC News, Macron said that the “main objective” of his meeting with US President Donald Trump was “to find the right deal in order to open” the vital waterway and address the escalating global energy crisis. He criticised the US decision to go to war in the first place, saying that “regime change by bombing a country is not something I think feasible”. He added that “it doesn’t work. And we did this mistake several times in the past decades”. Regarding the decision not to assist the US earlier, Macron noted that “when you want to engage people, you strategise with them, and you ask them before launching a war, and we decided not to join this war because we considered, and I still consider, it was not the right option”.https://aje.news/st3yz30.00702026-09-23T05:31:16.964907+00:005aljazeera.comusfrancehormuz1225https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/afp_6aad55375b47-1789744439.jpg?w=770&resize=770,513&quality=80France's President Emmanuel Macron looks on as he addresses the audience during a press conference following a meeting with candidates for the 2027 presidential election and party leaders focused on the geopolitical situation and its consequences, at the presidential Elysee Palace in Paris on September 18, 2026.2026-09-23T05:31:18.930917+00:001368France is seeking to work with India to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a statement by the French Foreign Ministry. It said Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot held a meeting with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, on the sidelines of the UNGA in New York. During the meeting, they “underscored the imperative of ensuring freedom of navigation” in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb, the ministry said. Barrot proposed that India work jointly with France as the straits are “crucial to the stability and prosperity of Europe and Asia”. He also pointed out the Franco-British initiative launched to ensure freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. Barrot and Jaishankar reiterated France and India’s commitment to international law and their joint support for “effective and reformed multilateralism”, according to the statement.https://aje.news/r3kxwe0.00502026-09-22T08:05:35.782202+00:005aljazeera.comindiafrancestrait-of-hormuz1359@MystereMeteoMystere MétéoTranslated from French On average across France, August 2026 ranks as the 2nd warmest August since the beginning of the 20th century, behind August 2003 with an average temperature of 24.8 °C but in 1st place on Corsica with an average of 26.4 °C, which is 3.4 °C above normalhttps://x.com/MystereMeteo/status/21020870708439081200.00502026-09-22T05:56:49.392984+00:002x.comfrancemétéoaugust1190https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSwdDC4WUAA-T8H?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-22T05:56:49.637306+00:001191https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSwdDC5WwAAdYlU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-22T05:56:49.665754+00:001346President Emmanuel Macron also urges European Commission to delay implementation of new methane rules by a yearhttps://www.ft.com/content/07c05f00-5c05-4b6d-837b-17118b266ecd0.00502026-09-22T05:29:23.632495+00:0012ft.comeuropean-commissioneufranceemmanuel-macron1179https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2Fb4cc03ef-bf4b-4162-9c70-475b85511b2a.jpg?source=next-home-page&dpr=2&width=280&fit=scale-downFrance calls on EU to take immediate action to lower energy prices2026-09-22T05:29:23.837433+00:001235@CoffeReportCoffe ReportNEW: France is moving its hybrid-threat preparations down to the local level. From next week, every French department will reportedly be required to establish a local security and defence command structure under its prefect - the senior state official responsible for coordinating government services, security and crisis response in the area. According to RTL, police, intelligence services, businesses and civil-protection organisations will be brought together to identify potential targets and map essential personnel at strategic infrastructure, including nuclear plants and telecom operators. A senior French official describes the shift simply: “We are moving to another level.”https://x.com/CoffeReport/status/21014297160415235340.00702026-09-20T12:37:26.631771+00:002x.comfrancesecurityhybrid-threat1082https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSnHMCbWAAAAjv7?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:37:26.893729+00:001226France’s wine production nears a 70-year low, leaving winemakers with tough choiceshttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/20/france-wine-production-70-year-low-heatwaves-drought.html0.00502026-09-20T12:29:12.768555+00:0026cnbc.comfrance1071https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108364821-1789729084385-gettyimages-2250164110-HL_LESTREBOOU_2980386.jpeg?v=1789729162&v=1789729162&w=648&h=338&vtcrop=yFrance’s wine production nears a 70-year low, leaving winemakers with tough choices2026-09-20T12:29:13.148459+00:001124https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: France is facing a growing fuel shortage with 11% of the country's gas stations now reporting that they are out of stock of either gas or diesel, according to the latest data published by the French government.In parts of the country, this figure now stands as high as 16%.Meanwhile, the average price of diesel is up to €2.38 per liter, less than 1% away from a record high, and the average price of gasoline is also at or above record highs.French President Macron convened an emergency meeting to discuss the crisis and the government is preparing to offer financial support to high-mileage drivers.Energy inflation is skyrocketing.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-19T15:46:28.598618+00:001linkedin.comfranceenergy-inflationfuel-shortage961https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E0BAQG97yk_RNWUoA/company-logo_100_100/company-logo_100_100/0/1731685993750?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=ynVZJrcbOXqRaM8BH9BkD1x-e68Ppj9f7kd6JlZNuBIView company: The Kobeissi Letter2026-09-19T15:46:30.447422+00:001122https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIABREAKING: *FRANCE'S CREDIT RATING DOWNGRADED TO A+ FROM AA- AT SCOPE#Franceke keeps sliding down the credit ladder. Scope cuts its rating to A+ from AA-, while DBRS turns negative on its AA outlook. The 10y yield premium over Germany tops 100bps for the first time in 14 years. Political paralysis is getting expensive. Source: HolgerZ via BBGhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-19T13:15:29.454744+00:001linkedin.comcredit-ratingfrancefinance959https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFrj6YWCUyY5Q/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaC47uy1IYAc-/0/1789809061653?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=_FG33qcz_Pmt3TsiSEVDuE7RWMrQfiZF5Nkb64FCkRcView image2026-09-19T13:15:30.878650+00:001037Emmanuel Macron says the ongoing conflict in the Middle East is exacerbating a global energy crisis. The French president called for a diplomatic solution that ensures the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.https://aje.news/lkvdtg?update=49623970.00302026-09-18T14:54:46.054790+00:005aljazeera.comdiplomacyfrancemacron988The meetings come after a US-mediated framework deal was agreed between Israel and Lebanon in June. But the agreement did not force Israel to withdraw from the large area of southern Lebanon it occupies, and Israel has continued its attacks on the country. The officials were later joined by chiefs of defence staffs from Lebanon, Jordan, France, the United Kingdom and Italy, as well as top US and Saudi officials, a French military source told the AFP news agency. Macron said that the talks aimed to “strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty and enable it to fully ensure its security”. “A sovereign and stable Lebanon is a decisive step toward peace and stability for the entire region,” Macron wrote in a statement on X. “We support the Lebanese Armed Forces, which are indispensable for asserting the authority of the Lebanese state across its entire territory,” he added. The French presidency said the aim of the Paris talks was to review a Lebanese armed forces deployment plan based on a “clear, credible and realistic” framework.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/17/macron-aoun-discuss-lebanese-sovereignty-efforts-to-end-israeli-attacks0.00602026-09-17T19:26:46.382963+00:005aljazeera.comlebanonfranceisrael837https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/ap_6aac1e027b02c-1789664770.jpgFrench President Emmanuel Macron, centre, Jordan's King Abdullah II, centre left, and Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, center right, open the "Aqaba Process" meeting in support of the Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) at the Hotel des Invalides in Paris, Thursday, Sept. 17, 2026. (Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool Photo via AP)2026-09-17T19:26:47.239111+00:00536https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAFrance's debt level is near the same level that Greece was at in 2009 level when there was a European Sovereign Debt Crisis.Greece was tiny though, just a few hundred billion Euros. Germany could bail out Greece.France has $3.5 trillion Euros in debt. 12 x larger than Greece.Nobody can bail out France. It's too huge.Source: Wall Street Mavhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00452026-09-09T02:19:56.881858+00:001linkedin.comfranceeconomydebt480IMAGE/media/content/536/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-09T02:20:35.259518+00:00