https://gnosly.com/feed/housing/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3213@ceprdcCEPR<p>Source: CEPR (X)</p>https://x.com/ceprdc/status/21129410974124158490.00502026-10-21T19:42:16.605470+00:002x.comwealthhousing3067https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVKsnTtXgAAReOm?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T19:42:17.968834+00:003193@cayimbyCalifornia YIMBY<p> A new paper on 60 cities finds that 30% to 43% of the gap in completion times between the slowest and fastest cities comes from permit waits, not construction. Longer projects also mean more interest paid, which raises costs.</p>https://x.com/cayimby/status/21125836309501750650.00402026-10-21T07:04:23.102505+00:002x.comushousing3047https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVFnneUWQAAjM7W?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-21T07:04:25.122568+00:003178https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>The West saw the steepest decline of 9.2%, while sales in the South, the biggest home-selling region, fell 8.2%.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dPGzQSjn0.00502026-10-21T04:52:35.586907+00:001linkedin.comushousingeconomy3035https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGGZxuM-tIbfQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaFagktwKgAc-/0/1792519851454?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=Qp2tNfvj9XJVgsME9X2TBNEUwtvvvUveg4Mb8TwcsyQView image2026-10-21T04:52:36.148978+00:003137@EquitOrrDouglas Orr, CFA<p>Source: Douglas Orr (X)</p>https://x.com/EquitOrr/status/21123265792045593470.00402026-10-20T12:46:36.455773+00:002x.comhousingaustralia2994https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVB9X0IacAA-e-9?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-20T12:46:36.985484+00:003096https://www.linkedin.com/in/alexwdryden/Alex Dryden, CFA<p>Source: Alex Dryden (LinkedIN)</p>https://lnkd.in/p/d99mGD-v0.00802026-10-20T07:09:13.191785+00:001linkedin.comchinahousingeconomy2949https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQH2Xe63cAvFHA/feedshare-shrink_480/B4EaFGEtzZKwAg-/0/1792177004040?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=HZOyWaAR-nJ-53T1InThWtKC2ZDUqTikOY0DCdbgEsoView image2026-10-20T07:09:14.704776+00:002881@AzizSunderjiAziz Sunderji<p>Source: Aziz Sunderji (X)</p>https://x.com/AzizSunderji/status/21104113837832644690.00502026-10-15T12:14:43.498093+00:002x.comeconomyushousing2705https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUmvPXPWgAAJMKP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-15T12:14:45.703684+00:002834@BetterDwellingBetter Dwelling<p><span style="color: rgb(85, 85, 85);">The Canadian housing correction is following the same trajectory as the U.S., but with a different outcome. </span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(85, 85, 85);">Home prices in Canada have dropped 20.5% from the early-2022 peak, compared with 26% during the U.S. bust. </span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(85, 85, 85);">However, Canada avoided a comparable economic collapse—its real GDP grew at an annualized pace of 1.7% over the four years since prices started falling. </span></p><p><span style="color: rgb(85, 85, 85);">That’s only slightly below the 2.0% average for this century, which is remarkable considering the country’s housing-dependent economy</span></p>https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-housing-crash-rivals-us-in-2008-but-the-pain-is-hidden-bmo/?ref=gnosly0.00502026-10-14T06:07:47.477984+00:002x.comhousingcanadaeconomy2649https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2110087495061028864/bWLJ_2qx?format=jpg&name=small2026-10-14T06:07:48.633587+00:002416@apostolos_klApostolos Kleitsogiannis<p>Since 2015, housing affordability has followed very different paths in the US housing market and the Euro Area housing market. House prices have risen faster than incomes on both sides of the Atlantic, but affordability pressures have been far more severe in the US. While the Euro Area has seen some improvement since 2022, the gap between house prices and incomes remains wider than it was a decade ago, keeping housing affordability a major challenge. The chart below illustrates this widening gap perfectly</p>https://x.com/apostolos_kl/status/21077121085949338610.00502026-10-07T16:33:47.093981+00:002x.comaffordabilityeconomicshousing2227https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUAY00pWkAA7aXO?format=jpg&name=smallThe Affordability Gap: US vs Euro Area2026-10-07T16:33:48.128710+00:002365@RickPalaciosJrRick Palacios Jr.<p>Source: RickPalaciosJr (X)</p>https://x.com/RickPalaciosJr/status/21075023400016938040.00402026-10-07T04:29:06.999023+00:002x.commortgagehousingus2184https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT9aNV4WoAEbpwH?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T04:29:07.214175+00:002348@wolfofwolfstWolf Richter<p>Source: Wolf Richter (X)</p>https://x.com/wolfofwolfst/status/21072305471185267660.00502026-10-06T12:06:00.597146+00:002x.comeuropereal-estatehousingeu2027@tradition_moneyTraditionalMoney<p>In 2002, it took 40,871 oz of silver to buy the median priced new U.S. home. 2026 H1: 5,201 oz. Since 2002, silver has gained nearly 8x in purchasing power against U.S. housing.</p>https://x.com/tradition_money/status/21052093762145158050.00402026-10-01T06:38:21.764542+00:002x.comeconomicssilverhousing1824https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTc0xOMX0AAYGqB?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T06:38:22.390360+00:002026@nickgerli1Nick Gerli<p>Is the problem in U.S. housing right now home prices or mortgage rates? The answer is clear when looking at data back to 1890. It's real home prices that are way out of line with historical norms, roughly 90% above the long-term average. Meanwhile, 7% mortgage rates are well within the realm of normal. In fact, mortgage rates in the 1990s were 8-9%, and the market was healthy. The reason that home sales are at 2008 levels right now is because prices are too high, not because rates are north of 7%. Lower the home prices, and buyers will come back into the market. Check to see if prices are already dropping your ZIP at http://reventure.app/map.</p>https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/21053233447487573720.00502026-10-01T06:29:06.523726+00:002x.commortgagereal-estatehousing1823https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTecEkFXcAAoR6z?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-01T06:29:07.049576+00:001884@nickgerli1Nick GerliA historic disconnect is taking place in the U.S. Housing Market. The cost to buy a house is now $2,886/month, incl mtg, tax, insurance. While the cost to rent is $1,950/month. The $936 buyer premium is one of the highest on record. And eclipses the 2006 housing bubble. So long as buying remains nearly $1k more expensive per month, people won't purchase. Since renting saves them money. To see the Buy v Rent Differential by ZIP, search on Reventure App now: https://reventure.app/map?geo=county&datapoint=home_value&zoom=5.148402050846583&lnglat=%7B%22lng%22%3A-89.23963410928542%2C%22lat%22%3A33.32456661273315%7Dhttps://x.com/nickgerli1/status/21046797420543102920.00602026-09-29T05:19:20.581131+00:002x.commarketreal-estatehousing1664https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTVSNelXYAAAg2s?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-29T05:19:21.618133+00:001777https://www.linkedin.com/in/aman-talwar-82847b261/Aman Talwar🇺🇸 U.S. 30 year mortgage rates just jumped to 7.49% 🚨You know what's scary... how similar the chart looks to September 1978, when mortgage rates went from 9% to 18%Just keep in mind, most countries don't have 30 year mortgages.Europe, Australia, Canada, etc. are 3-5 year fixed. 🇪🇺🇦🇺🇨🇦2027 is a massive mortgage renewal wall outside of the U.S. If rates double that will destroy the housing market and economies.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00502026-09-27T06:00:41.761495+00:001linkedin.commortgageeconomyhousing1551https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQHd6uBkBNIqIw/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aDdBtpMIwAc-/0/1790414609275?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=YE2bmbwo9V3IWtu8sh3kWzayNFT28_ijKlXC4SRmhyQView image2026-09-27T06:00:42.277229+00:001604UnknownThe last time the 10 year Treasury yield closed above 5% was July 2007. Three months later, the global financial crisis was underway. The 10 year yield reached about 5.2% in July 2007 before falling sharply as financial stress spread through the system. Over the following 16 months, the Nasdaq fell roughly 56%. Now the 10 year yield is back above 5% for the first time since 2007. That doesn’t mean history is repeating. But the last time yields reached these levels, something very different was happening underneath the surface. Housing was cracking. Credit spreads were widening. And financial leverage was becoming a problem. The yield itself wasn’t the warning. It was what was happening in the financial system around it.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:7508893776787034113/0.00502026-09-25T06:13:39.380055+00:001linkedin.comfinancial-crisistreasury-yieldhousing1409IMAGE/media/content/1604/g-20260925-bonds2.jpgg-20260925-bonds2.jpgjpg2026-09-25T06:14:57.454002+00:001283@nickgerli1Nick GerliU.S. homebuyer demand has fallen so far that pending sales are now worse than 2008. In August 2026, the NAR pending sale index registered at 71.2. Lower than during any period of the 2008-2011 crash. Worse yet, contract signings are down 47% from the pandemic peak, and 35% from normal pre-pandemic levels. This is a full-scale housing demand recession, and it's not getting any better. The longer that pending sales stay this low, the more pressure there will be on sellers to cut prices. But there's big differences depending on market. Check home sales and inventory data for your ZIP at: https://reventure.app/map?geo=countydatapoint=total_active_inventoryzoom=4.614364797675922lnglat=%7B%22lng%22%3A-95.96369909163036%2C%22lat%22%3A33.35723242914297%7Dquery=Bethlehem%2C+Georgia+30620%2C+United+Stateshttps://x.com/nickgerli1/status/21006610902293627590.00502026-09-20T20:05:22.195159+00:002x.commarketreal-estatehousing1132https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HScLmwLWYAExO5h?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-20T20:05:22.587102+00:00918@nickgerli1Nick GerliU.S. Mortgage Applications just fell back to the lowest level since 1995. And are now down 50% from the pandemic peak. Demand to buy with a mortgage today is shockingly at the same level as 31 years ago, even though U.S. population is 30% higher. The reason demand is so low is due to sky-high home prices, which are in a massive bubble. To go along with sky-high prices, mortgage rates are now back to normal at 7%. Meaning the vast majority of buyers can't afford it, with the typical household needing to spend nearly 40% of their gross income on house payments. This historic demand collapse will not improve until home prices drop meaningfully. And the situation is becoming especially dire in America's highest cost markets. Check your ZIP on Reventure to see where your market ranks:https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/21002866414368196480.00602026-09-17T15:55:00.368005+00:002x.commortgageeconomyhousing780https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSWzsGwXoAA4SNw?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-17T15:55:00.644834+00:00587https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterUS housing affordability is rapidly deteriorating:The annual income needed to afford an average home in the US surged +$4,107 in May, to a record $124,674 per year.This marks the 3rd consecutive monthly increase, totaling +$9,734.By comparison, US median household income stands at $86,159 per year.This brings the gap between median household income and the income needed to afford an average home to $38,515, the largest gap since July 2025.This is just $2,288 below the $40,803 record set in June 2024.To put this into perspective, median household income was $5,139 higher than the income required to buy a home in 2021.Homeownership is becoming increasingly out of reach for the average American.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-12T07:15:25.750782+00:001linkedin.comaffordabilityeconomyhousing523https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQFKEy-iE4ZR0Q/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaCResnaGYAo-/0/1789147138979?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=Om_eo4e5SybOIHjzoz0OIcdQNVs0cK49myMJ2J8xutQView image2026-09-12T07:15:26.683817+00:00556The 2% monthly decline in existing-home sales reflected higher mortgage rates and a housing market stuck in a rut.https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-in-august-tumble-to-lowest-level-since-last-year-25851c6e0.00402026-09-10T17:37:43.178015+00:0023wsj.comhome-saleseconomyhousing473@NoLimitGainsNoLimitGoogle searches for “can’t sell house” just hit an all-time high. Above 2008. “Help with mortgage” is back at 2009 levels. Sellers can’t sell and owners can’t pay.https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/20964985360198738110.00502026-09-07T09:09:57.519356+00:002x.comgoogle-searchesmortgagehousing427https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRhCTaMbAAAJ9Uk?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-09-07T09:09:57.931806+00:00428https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRhCTZpXoAMQ7uH?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-09-07T09:09:57.974482+00:00365@nickgerli1Nick GerliThere's only been three home-price bubbles in U.S. history over the last 70 years. Today, with a Home Price/Income Ratio of 4.33x Back in 2006, when it hit 4.45x. And post WW2, when it hit 5.00x. In the previous two cases, the bubble and lack of affordability didn't last long. After 2006, prices crashed shortly thereafter, restoring the Home Price/Income to normal levels (below 3.5x). Meanwhile, after WW2, home prices stopped growing for a decade, while incomes surged 5-10% per year. Pushing the Value/Income Ratio below 3.0x, to its most affordable level ever. Indicating that there are two sides to the affordability coin: prices, and incomes. Check Value/Income for your ZIP on Reventure Premium now:https://x.com/nickgerli1/status/20955269498629858030.00502026-09-04T12:28:13.855200+00:002x.comaffordabilityeconomicshousing337https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRTMD8xXgAg59Ev?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:28:14.152050+00:00