https://gnosly.com/feed/inflation/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3205@LynAldenContactLyn Alden<p>Source: Lyn Alden (X)</p>https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/21125613717368384160.00402026-10-21T13:06:16.498272+00:002x.cominflationuseconomy3057https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVFSeZNW4AANGU0?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-21T13:06:17.745430+00:003194https://www.linkedin.com/in/alphabinwanicapital/Ashwin Binwani<p>Source: Ashwin Binwani (LinkedIn) </p>https://lnkd.in/p/d4Y3p9pb0.00502026-10-21T07:10:31.258150+00:001linkedin.cominflationukeconomy3048https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQF6ELyml76uVQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aFdFZ2MHsAg-/0/1792563060367?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=kWHmjw17gFNuWmmahTOI96i_VpJxOZaDc65X88DWa7YView image2026-10-21T07:10:31.754585+00:003182@KennyEdwKenny Edwards<p>Source: Andrew Feinstein (X) </p>https://x.com/andrewfeinstein/status/21125944569898192610.00352026-10-21T05:25:18.892570+00:002x.cominflationukeconomy3038IMAGE/media/content/3182/20261021-uk-economy-last-4yrs.jpg20261021-uk-economy-last-4yrs.jpgjpg2026-10-21T05:27:18.147650+00:003082@trevortombeTrevor Tombe<p>Source: Trevor Tombe (X)</p>https://x.com/trevortombe/status/21121885373618877400.00502026-10-19T19:27:47.505015+00:002x.cominflationeconomycanada2934https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVAAR-1bcAAXPMK?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-19T19:27:49.040486+00:003018@MarkzandiMark Zandi<p>With all eyes on the inflation statistics released this week, little attention was paid to the Treasury statement released on Friday. It showed the nation racked up a nearly $2 trillion budget deficit in the just-ended fiscal year 2026. That’s more than 6% of GDP.</p>https://x.com/Markzandi/status/21119020067805062970.00402026-10-19T05:06:54.515279+00:002x.cominflationusdebteconomy2857https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU77gK-WMAA-gYr?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-19T05:06:55.398075+00:002950@AviKanerAvi Kaner ابراهيم אבי<p>Israel, Saudi Arabia, and Japan have among the lowest inflation rates in the world. Israel: 1.6%; Saudi Arabia: 1.9%; Japan: 1.9%.&nbsp;</p>https://x.com/AviKaner/status/21110831054778737820.00602026-10-17T07:48:50.208825+00:002x.cominflationeconomy2782https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUwS5USXoAA7pyO?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-17T07:48:50.684574+00:002911@PollTracker2024Politics & Poll Tracker<p>Wholesale inflation rose more quickly than expected last month on a big jump in fuel costs, a sign that stubbornly rising prices remain an economic challenge for consumers and a political problem for Republicans in the midterm elections</p>https://x.com/PollTracker2024/status/21107198511404360890.00602026-10-16T08:16:16.380120+00:002x.cominflationeconomyus2731https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUrIcZXXQAAG7rh?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-16T08:16:17.836654+00:002863@PedroCantuelPedro Cantuel<p>Source: PedroCantuel (X)</p>https://x.com/PedroCantuel/status/21104238808506656080.00502026-10-15T06:26:52.079247+00:002x.cominflationenergyeugas2684https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUm0bhnXwAI_FD1?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-15T06:26:52.696731+00:002852@MacroMicroMeMacroMicro<p>Exports grew 36.3% YoY and imports 31.0%, both well above expectations. CPI rose just 0.9%, below expectations, and core CPI held at 1.0%. </p><p>Oil is pushing up producer prices, but downstream firms are absorbing the cost. PPI rose 1.2% MoM as oil extraction prices jumped 14.5% and refined petroleum prices rose 7.4%. Mining prices climbed 25.4% YoY against 3.4% for processing industries, which means little of the cost is being passed on, and downstream margins stay under pressure. </p><p>Consumer prices show the same gap. Gasoline rose 16.6% YoY and added about 0.47 percentage points to CPI inflation, more than half the headline increase. Computer and mobile phone prices accelerated to 21.8% and 14.9%. Service prices fell 0.2% MoM after the summer travel season, and food prices rose just 0.4%, below seasonal norms. Price pressure is coming from costs, with little from domestic demand. </p><p>Exports are strong, but integrated circuits, automatic data-processing equipment and automobiles made up nearly half of January-September export growth. Integrated circuit export volumes rose just 3.8% while export values surged 108.1%, so higher prices drove much of the gain. </p><p>Oil raised import costs too. Crude oil import volumes fell 15.3% YoY in January-September while average prices rose around 18%, leaving import values up just 0.3%. </p>https://x.com/MacroMicroMe/status/21102409009957847450.00802026-10-14T15:49:43.544682+00:002x.cominflationchinaeconomy2672https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUkU5T-bwAAE9uC?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-14T15:49:44.905614+00:002807@cpscott16Chad Scott<p>Source: Chad Scott (X)</p>https://x.com/cpscott16/status/21099812151096161100.00402026-10-13T14:52:24.481525+00:002x.cominflationpollingtrumpus2622https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUgou71bgAAjQ5j?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-13T14:52:26.863320+00:002480@NewYorkFedNew York Fed<p>Labor market expectations mostly improved, with the unemployment rate, job-finding, job loss, and quit expectations all improving.</p>https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2026/20261007?ref=gnosly0.00402026-10-08T16:09:59.438747+00:002x.cominflationus2292https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUCxRBuXcAE74MG?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T16:10:00.072448+00:002437@FTFinancial Times<p>Source: Financial Times (X)</p>https://ft.trib.al/oL3KZkt0.00402026-10-08T06:04:50.568558+00:002x.cominflationbondsdebtus2245https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUBxNEEWkAAa0Rd?format=jpg&name=smallLine chart showing US borrowing costs at multi-decade highs2026-10-08T06:04:52.110229+00:002375@scottlincicomeScott Lincicome<p>Without the tariffs, "goods prices would have fallen slightly."</p>https://x.com/scottlincicome/status/21075422911455109940.00502026-10-07T05:49:58.058058+00:002x.cominflationustariffs2191https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT9-izgXYAAEerF?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T05:49:59.097898+00:002349@AlexMalitasAlex Malitas, CFA<p>We often highlight these two charts. One shows that inflation has outpaced average hourly earnings since April 2020. The second shows how Wall Street views inflation versus how the average person does. The average person sees the prices of what they buy as 30% higher. Economists &amp; Wall Street see that yoy inflation isn't 9% anymore</p>https://x.com/AlexMalitas/status/21071279363272502670.00602026-10-06T13:32:12.272627+00:002x.cominflationuseconomy2168https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4FqfGXgAAYFBv?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T13:32:14.698772+00:002169https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT4FsCHWUAAGRbj?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-06T13:32:14.734547+00:002293<p>Spending is rising because prices are climbing and Americans are buying more stuff, despite long-running frustrations over inflation.</p>https://www.wsj.com/0.00502026-10-05T14:53:52.961127+00:0023wsj.cominflationconsumerus2116https://images.wsj.net/im-99103710?width=608&height=405The Mighty American Consumer Is Crashing Through Inflation and Driving Growth2026-10-05T14:53:53.675521+00:002285@PeterMalloukPeter Mallouk<p>Inflation is the silent thief. Over the last 30 years: $1 in purchasing power → $0.47. $1 invested in the S&amp;P 500 → $9.05 AFTER inflation. That gap is the power of ownership.</p>https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/21070926922157224920.00402026-10-05T14:00:10.513663+00:002x.cominflationinvestmentus2107https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT0gxoPXAAASUDZ?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T14:00:11.977819+00:002264@ZiadMDaoudZiad Daoud<p>• It loaded no crude on tankers in September • New sanctions on automakers &amp; rail companies • Inflation hit 90%</p>https://x.com/ZiadMDaoud/status/21067227383124667530.00402026-10-05T09:24:56.629710+00:002x.comiransanctionsinflation2089IMAGE/media/content/2264/g-20261005-iran-street-image.jpgg-20261005-iran-street-image.jpgjpg2026-10-05T09:33:23.857788+00:002137@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>This sounds insane until you look at the math. And if the US actually tries it, gold, silver, and Bitcoin could be the biggest beneficiaries.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21060427014018009990.00602026-10-02T16:38:25.500571+00:002x.cominflationtrumpdebt1938https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTopJciacAAXxvm?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-10-02T16:38:26.579167+00:001939https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTopJg4acAAZ1Ow?format=jpg&name=360x360Image2026-10-02T16:38:26.612505+00:002106@ryankatzroseneProf. Ryan Katz-Rosene<p>Over a century of monthly inflation rates in the US</p>https://x.com/ryankatzrosene/status/21058140958701732140.00402026-10-02T06:56:05.013308+00:002x.cominflationushistory1913https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTlaWnGWwAAGoFP?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T06:56:05.460008+00:002045@C_BarraudChristophe Barraud<p>🌎 The Biggest Jump in Global Crop Prices Since 2022 Threatens to Boost Inflation - Bloomberg https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-10-01/the-biggest-jump-in-global-crop-prices-since-2022-threatens-to-boost-inflation…</p>https://x.com/C_Barraud/status/21055676603062600040.00502026-10-01T10:08:38.350538+00:002x.cominflationglobal-crop-prices1847https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTh6mkiWwAEIomo?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-01T10:08:38.813037+00:002019@Callum_ThomasCallum Thomas<p>Agri commodities are Breaking Out after a 4-year period of consolidation. Expect a continuation of the long-term uptrend, with several notable catalysts... ( = upside risk for inflation)</p>https://x.com/Callum_Thomas/status/21054734941420670380.00402026-10-01T05:40:09.960392+00:002x.cominflationcommoditiesagriculture1815https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTgk--pWsAAY-Qu?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-01T05:40:10.385952+00:002006@leahfilestheleahfilesInflation numbers came out today, and the official story is that inflation went down. What the headline number doesn't tell you is that the government changed how inflation is calculated in the same release. A month ago, they said July inflation was 3.7%. Today, they recalculated July with the new formula and it dropped to 3.36%. If you measure August the same way as the months before it, inflation comes out around 3.8%, which means it went up. They didn't bring inflation down, they just changed how they calculate it. Bessent did something similar with CPI last month. You only modify the way you calculate if they numbers are that bad. They genuinely thought we wouldn't notice...https://x.com/leahfiles/status/21054912720183667220.00502026-10-01T04:20:22.675135+00:002x.cominflationgovernmentcpi1805https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTgzcCOX0AAiTOp?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T04:20:25.191838+00:002000@benjamincowenBenjamin CowenThe long-end heading higher after the "soft" PCE report (soft in quotes since they revised how PCE was calculated) is a clear sign that the bond market is still concerned more about inflation. Note that prior PCE entries were revised down as well and the series is generally trending higher.https://x.com/benjamincowen/status/21053560277806080210.00402026-09-30T19:25:12.676581+00:002x.cominflationpcebond-market1800https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTe55zoW4AA_YKL?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-30T19:25:12.966123+00:001971@GordonJohnson19Gordon Johnson<p>The 5y5y is telling you the bond market is ALREADY fading the PCE "beat" this morning - keep in mind that the Bureau of Economic Analysis updated its methodology for calculating inflation in 3 components of the PCE that trimmed the Aug. YoY change by a few tenths of a percentage point.</p>https://x.com/GordonJohnson19/status/21052821537642253010.00502026-09-30T14:19:31.626933+00:002x.cominflationpcebond-market1766https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTd2whiWcAEqlUg?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T14:19:31.966452+00:001970@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>US GOVERNMENT JUST FOOLED EVERYONE WITH TODAY'S PCE DATA Today, US PCE inflation dropped to 3.4%, its lowest level in 6 months. This led to a pump across stocks, gold, silver, and crypto. But before this data release, some key changes were made to the way PCE is calculated, which can make reported inflation look lower. The BEA changed how portfolio management, software, and legal services are measured inside PCE. The biggest change was portfolio management. Earlier, they used a price index to estimate how much prices were rising. Now, they first estimate how much of the service people are consuming using employment-based data, then calculate the implied price change from spending. They also changed the price indexes used for software and legal services. RBC estimated these methodology changes could lower annual core PCE by around 0.18 percentage points. These changes were part of BEA’s annual statistical update, and older data was also revised. So inflation may actually be cooling, but part of the lower reported number can also come from how inflation is now calculated. And it also shows that if inflation doesn’t fall enough, the government can simply change the way it is calculated to make it look lower.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21052877348899434540.00602026-09-30T14:16:23.945743+00:002x.cominflationuspce1765https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1fa-1f1f8.svg🇺🇸2026-09-30T14:16:25.483490+00:001966@SchuldensuehnerHolger Zschaepitz<p>German inflation accelerated to 3.3% in Sep from 2.9% in Aug, driven by another sharp rise in energy prices. Core inflation, which strips out energy and food, held steady at 2.4%.</p>https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/21052801742166672390.00402026-09-30T13:14:34.837564+00:002x.cominflationenergyeconomy1761https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTd0jWgXAAAIPTs?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T13:14:36.424970+00:001964@TheStalwartJoe Weisenthal<p>Inflation is clearly reaccelerating in Europe. Source: Bloomberg</p>https://x.com/TheStalwart/status/21052303058838037500.00502026-09-30T12:37:34.742955+00:002x.cominflationeuropeeconomy1759https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTdHv6JWsAAyPmS?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-30T12:37:36.838851+00:001886@blockchainchickHeidi<p>I stopped trusting the official inflation number the day I started actually looking at receipts. Ground beef was $1.71 a pound in 2002. Today it's $6.92. That's 5.8% a year, every year, for 24 years. Coffee, 4.8% a year. Gas, 4.7% a year. The median home went from $186k to $411k. Official CPI over the same stretch? 2.6% a year. That's the number your raises are based on. That's the number your savings account is "beating." Your cash is being eaten away by inflation.</p>https://x.com/blockchainchick/status/21045444496110717010.00402026-09-29T05:42:16.838389+00:002x.cominflationeconomicsprices1667IMAGE/media/content/1886/g-20260929-us-real-inflation.jpgg-20260929-us-real-inflation.jpgjpg2026-09-29T05:44:35.080561+00:001864@KobeissiLetterThe Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: The Consumer Sentiment Index fell -3.6 points in September, to 48.1, its 2nd-lowest level in history. This marks the 2nd consecutive monthly decline, totaling -7.1 points. This comes as the Current Conditions Index decreased -1.0 point, to 50.9, its 4th-lowest reading on record. At the same time, the Consumer Expectations Index dropped -5.2 points, to 46.3, its 2nd-lowest since 1980. This year, the sentiment has deteriorated for all groups by age, education, geography, political party and income. The decline has been driven by a higher cost-of-living, as higher fuel prices, persistent inflation, rising mortgage rates, and weaker purchasing power. Consumer sentiment is at crisis levels.https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/21043085966161308690.00502026-09-28T08:03:26.959464+00:002x.cominflationeconomyconsumersentiment1643https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTPYJpvXIAAiACU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T08:03:27.176146+00:001792@julian_linigerJulian LinigerThe global bond market is melting! 🚨 🇺🇸 US 10Y: ~5.2% 🇪🇺 Germany 10Y: ~3.6% 🇯🇵 Japan 10Y: ~3.1% Governments now have two options: Cut spending hard, or inflate their way out. History tells you which one they will choose. This is why we need Bitcoin: 21 million. No central bank. No money printer. ₿ullish!https://x.com/julian_liniger/status/21037634762544951010.00802026-09-27T06:28:11.813743+00:002x.cominflationglobal-bondbitcoin1570https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTIRuxUXsAAQ_E9?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-27T06:28:12.595571+00:001719@KobeissiLetterThe Kobeissi LetterIt's official. As the bond market "meltdown" accelerates, the average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US is up to 7.45%. That's up +150 basis points in 6 months and the highest since 2023, when inflation was at 6.4%+. What is happening? Let us explain. (a thread)https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/21032718567323035100.003517182026-09-26T09:17:15.125748+00:002x.cominflationmortgagebond-market1501https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTBC7z-W0AABFp6?format=png&name=240x240Image2026-09-26T09:17:15.347809+00:001718@KobeissiLetterThe Kobeissi LetterThe US Dollar has lost -23% of its purchasing power since 2020. In other words, if your assets are up +30% since 2020, you have effectively just broken even in real terms. Inflation has now been above the Fed's 2% target for 60-straight months, and the bond market knows this. Own assets or be left behind.https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/21035450724071875950.003517192026-09-26T09:17:13.589528+00:002x.cominflationusdollarbond-market1500https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTFHPzzWEAA6prP?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-26T09:17:15.090592+00:001636@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeHoly shit... Japanese rates are going bananas. JGB markets were closed for the past few days, so this is their reaction to: - US diesel export ban - No prospect of Hormuz reopening All of this points to higher inflation, so investors are demanding higher yields. The government can't afford these high yields... Japan will soon have to stop QT and go back to QE/YCC. We don't own enough gold for what's coming.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/21030701315260052290.00402026-09-25T08:20:32.484019+00:002x.cominflationratesjapan1436https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-bH3qXEAAiCJ6?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T08:20:32.876748+00:001628@cullenrocheCullen RocheLots of scary talk in bonds these days, but it's mostly recency bias. Since 1960 the 10 year yield has averaged 5.8%. We're at 5% - below average. If you'd fallen asleep 20 years ago and woke up today you'd think nothing happened in the bond market the entire time. Ignore all the sovereign debt crisis talk. Inflation expectations are adjusting to something more historically normalized. Carry on.https://x.com/cullenroche/status/21031552426827165180.00502026-09-25T06:59:37.897727+00:002x.cominflationmarketsbonds1625@DiegoFassnachtDiego R. Faßnacht, CFATranslated from German German real estate prices continue to fall (after adjusting for inflation). This trend has been ongoing since the end of 2021. Now interest rates are rising ever more sharply, and politics isn't helping matters either. My take on German real estate: He who laughs last laughs best.https://x.com/DiegoFassnacht/status/21030858890104426720.00502026-09-25T06:58:44.470400+00:002x.cominflationgermanreal-estate1426https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-peAkXQAAmDo8?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T06:58:44.897074+00:001612@onechancefreedmEndGame MacroThe U.S. is going to crash global economies to break inflation, force yields lower and restore demand for Treasuries, even if that means crushing its own economy in the process. Higher Treasury yields, a stronger dollar and tighter global dollar liquidity are the transmission mechanism. The pain abroad is not separate from the adjustment. It is part of it.https://x.com/onechancefreedm/status/21031987283162195700.003016132026-09-25T06:33:00.019455+00:002x.cominflationtreasurieseconomy1558@wolfofwolfstWolf RichterBond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs with Inflation Written All Over. They got spooked: 2-yr yield +13 basis points to 4.90%. 7-yr +14 to 5.04%. 30-year 5.39%. But yields are not high beyond the QE erahttps://x.com/wolfofwolfst/status/21028050775391030930.00402026-09-24T09:15:24.674879+00:002x.cominflationtreasuryyields1356https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS6p13bbEAA2SUM?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-24T09:15:25.126824+00:001499@NoLimitGainsNoLimitU.S. China. Europe. Japan. The money supply keeps getting BIGGER. U.S. M2 alone grew by $1.25 TRILLION over the past year. You spend years building your savings while the financial system keeps creating more money. If those savings earn less than inflation, you’re losing purchasing power without spending a dollar.https://x.com/NoLimitGains/status/21024949354128839150.00402026-09-23T16:22:42.447514+00:002x.commoney-supplyinflationeconomy1316https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS2P-r9W8AA43jU?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-23T16:22:43.407528+00:001478https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterAfter a brief intermission, back to the regularly scheduled programming.The 10Y Note Yield is back to its highest levels since 2023 and the 30Y Note Yield is up to 5.35%, matching 2007 levels.Despite numerous intervention attempts by the US Treasury, nothing is working.It is becoming increasingly clear that the only way to drive yields lower over the short-run would be an end to the Iran War and the ongoing global energy crisis.However, over the long-run, this is a structural problem, with deficit spending and years of compounding inflation at its core.The reality is that the era of ultra-low rates that Americans and the world became used to will not return anytime soon."Higher for longer" is the new normal.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00702026-09-23T15:45:19.726909+00:001linkedin.cominflationeconomicsyields1300https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQH9PW5mWBvnEw/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaDOk1rcIAAk-/0/1790172159066?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=A97TjcbQ4vUhnJjyyBqOhrUntVKknRdun1KeDBZD7s8View image2026-09-23T15:45:20.191650+00:001450@graddhybpcGraddhy - Commodities TA+CyclesThis inflation vs deflation index chart was in a range for eight years. Then it broke down for a very probable blue false breakout. Now it is breaking upwards out of a pink bullish falling wedge. Getting prepared for a 2nd inflationary wave is now imperative.https://x.com/graddhybpc/status/19370507785999279590.00402026-09-23T08:52:48.597662+00:002x.cominflationjoinuscommodities1274https://pbs.twimg.com/media/GuHIKhsWIAAceKo?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-23T08:52:49.070948+00:001376@ecbEuropean Central BankThe second wave of energy price increases means inflation is likely to be higher for longer before falling back towards target from mid-2027 onwards, Chief Economist Philip R. Lane tells @LeTemps. He also discusses growth, government spending and AI https://ecb.europa.eu/press/inter/date/2026/html/ecb.in260922~5f89d300ee.en.html…https://x.com/ecb/status/21022619320321970450.00502026-09-22T09:46:52.884969+00:002x.cominflationenergyeconomy1208https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSy7oueWQAAuVd5?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-22T09:46:53.097383+00:001279@SchuldensuehnerHolger Zschaepitz“Risk-free” can be painfully expensive. US 10y Treasuries have suffered their worst 5y nominal returns in over 120yrs, Goldman shows. Inflation made the losses even uglier. The twist: after this historic rout, yields are merely back near their long-run average.https://x.com/Schuldensuehner/status/21016069905018516390.00402026-09-20T20:02:45.636280+00:002x.comus-treasuriesfinanceinflation1128https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSpoR1MXAAEC4cg?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-20T20:02:45.933248+00:001104https://www.linkedin.com/in/sheikh-marzan/Marjanul Islam🔴 They want you to focus more on a 25 bps rate hike than on the $2 trillion deficit each year.That’s their magic trick.The way a magician distracts your focus, the Treasury and government want to distract your focus in the same way.So you feel that the Treasury, Fed, and government are all working hard to solve the problem.But the reality is, one layer deeper, they are the ones causing the issues — inflation, rising prices, and the energy crisis — through their money printer: $2 trillion per year.A 25 bps rate hike on $40 trillion of debt adds $100 billion in annual interest costs.A $2 trillion deficit is 20x larger than that.Focus on that, and you will easily understand what it means for currency devaluation and asset prices.https://www.linkedin.com/in/sheikh-marzan/0.00502026-09-19T11:50:55.201766+00:001linkedin.cominflationmonetary-policyglobal-market922https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQHm7Gbtz7pXvg/feedshare-shrink_160/B56aC5O4EgGQAk-/0/1789814080102?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=9iouY02Ijrg84mQeeI4skO0AzhyWqgEkbz7AXJlbm3YView image2026-09-19T11:50:55.411655+00:001085https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAThe Federal Reserve has an explicit mandate to stabilize prices but over the past 55 years every Fed Chair has expanded the money supply leading to persistent inflation.Source: Riverhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00502026-09-19T07:51:56.226220+00:001linkedin.cominflationmoney-supplyfederal-reserve910https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQF9jhzcQOBkng/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCrFd2hKAAc-/0/1789576732348?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=PN4tG8zQmr78QXQ9VFJEIJ8tZ-NLQmig10VhqlQlnroView image2026-09-19T07:51:57.179407+00:001077AnonymousAs nicely explained by Dan Runkevicius, the 10-year yield reached 5% mainly because markets expect the Fed to keep interest rates higher for longer—not because inflation expectations or the term premium increased.This could mean investors are preparing for a tougher Fed response to persistent supply-driven inflation, raising the risk of stagflation.Here's the full story 👇 The US 10-year Treasury yield has crossed 5% for the first time since 2007.Many assume this is mainly because investors fear higher inflation or demand more compensation for holding long-term bonds.But the data suggest a different explanation.Inflation expectations have barely moved since the war began. Most of the increase has instead come from higher real yields.The San Francisco Fed’s model tells a similar story. Since the end of July:Expected short-term interest rates over the next decade: +25 basis pointsTerm premium: −3 basis pointsIn other words, investors increasingly believe interest rates will remain higher for much longer—not simply that long-term bonds have become riskier.This matters because growth forecasts have not improved meaningfully. Meanwhile, rate expectations have risen most sharply following disappointing inflation data.The market may therefore be preparing for a more aggressive Fed response to persistent, supply-driven inflation—a potentially stagflationary scenario.That is a very different explanation for the 5% yield milestone.Source: Dan Runkeviciushttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-19T04:22:12.401724+00:001linkedin.cominflationtreasuryfed905IMAGE/media/content/1077/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-19T04:26:56.213156+00:001068@MacroAlphaHQMacro AlphaUS RATES ARE RISING AGAIN AFTER THE FED HIKE. NO AMOUNT OF HIKES WILL INCREASE HORMUZ TRANSITS. SLOWING THE ECONOMY ENOUGH TO DESTROY OIL DEMAND WILL ALSO CUT TAX RECEIPTS AND WIDEN THE DEFICIT. THAT MEANS MORE MONEY PRINTING IS NEEDED NEXT. ALL ROADS LEAD TO INFLATION.https://x.com/MacroAlphaHQ/status/21009655322414204030.00402026-09-18T16:23:40.195900+00:002x.cominflationrateseconomy895https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSggszyXMAAze1O?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T16:23:40.604259+00:001020https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA🔴 The Bank of Japan delivered a hawkish message, reaffirming that it will continue raising interest rates as growth and inflation evolve. Yet the yen weakened immediately after the announcement.The market’s verdict was clear: 25 basis points is not enough.Even with the policy rate now at 1.25%, the interest-rate differential remains wide—and so does the incentive to borrow in yen and invest in higher-yielding currencies.If Japan wants to support the yen without hiking more aggressively, it may have to return to FX intervention: selling dollar assets and using its reserves to buy yen.But intervention only buys time. It does not solve the underlying rate gap.The longer the BOJ waits to close that gap, the more aggressive future rate hikes may ultimately need to be.Key details:1. BOJ voted 7-2 in favour of raising interest rates to 1.25%.2. BOJ warns underlying inflation could rise above its 2% target.3. Inflation pressure is spreading from producer prices into consumer prices.4. Inflation expectations continue to rise.5. Wage increases are increasingly being passed into selling prices.6. Weak yen, higher oil prices and strong AI-related demand are adding inflation pressure.7. Japan’s economy is still recovering moderately, supported by employment, income growth and AI-related demand.8. CPI is expected to accelerate clearly above 2% from the second half of FY2026.9. BOJ still says financial conditions remain accommodative despite the hike.10. Future hikes will depend on economic activity, prices and financial conditions.Governor Ueda’s remarks will be closely watched for clues on the timing and pace of further hikes.Source: Bull Theoryhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-18T06:56:53.910611+00:001linkedin.cominflationbank-of-japaninterest-rates858https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFqM8qYTlDykA/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCy.1arJkAo-/0/1789709211639?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=252MuVJIuunfPJr1FR9b1b4R7xed4gLiTXz9A1SmAZwView image2026-09-18T06:56:54.444210+00:001005@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeJapan is fucked... it can't seriously fight inflation. Its interest expenses have more than doubled over the last 4 years... Fighting inflation through interest rate hikes will blow up interest expenses even further. The current average yield on Japan's debt is ~1%... while the JP10Y yield is at ~3%. Just refinancing the debt at current rates would eventually 3x Japan's interest expenses. Sooner rather than later, Japan will have to give up on fighting inflation... The same is true for the US and much of the developed world. We all don't own enough hard assets for when this happens.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/21006470444570750170.00402026-09-18T04:21:48.402853+00:002x.cominflationeconomicsjapan846https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSb_QfCWIAAySUW?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-18T04:21:49.315854+00:00910https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: President Trump says inflation is “too high” and he wants Fed Chair Warsh to be independent.Trump also says he “still has confidence” in Fed Chair Warsh despite today’s rate hike.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-17T15:32:19.302070+00:001linkedin.cominflationfedtrump774https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E0BAQG97yk_RNWUoA/company-logo_100_100/company-logo_100_100/0/1731685993750?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=ynVZJrcbOXqRaM8BH9BkD1x-e68Ppj9f7kd6JlZNuBIView company: The Kobeissi Letter2026-09-17T15:32:19.734347+00:00907@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeOil is going lower on reports that Saudi Arabia is exporting more via Oman. That means more oil has to pass through Hormuz, where Iran is busy blowing up ships... This shit show will likely get worse before it gets better. Brace for inflation.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/21006002360873373990.00502026-09-17T15:28:25.725352+00:002x.cominflationoilsaudiarabia771https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSbUx6SW4AAJS6Y?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-17T15:28:25.989973+00:00878https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIANot all Fed hiking cycles are equal.Historically, the higher the inflation when the Fed begins to hike, the worse equities have performed.The faster the tightening cycle, the worse equities have performed.Source: David Marlin, UBS, Factsethttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-17T15:04:25.118420+00:001linkedin.cominflationfedequities877https://www.linkedin.com/in/dan-runkevicius/Dan RunkeviciusWas the Fed's hike yesterday just a credibility fix? When Warsh took the reins of the Fed, he set out to completely reform the way it conducts monetary policy.He even appointed a task force for basically every pillar of the Fed's policy:- Balance-sheet management- Communication/forward guidance- The data the Fed relies on- Productivity and jobs in an era of transformation- Most important of all, how inflation is measuredOn the last one, he argued that the current inflation models are outdated in today's economy, and that everything from how data is sourced to how it's modeled should be rethought.That obviously stirred up a lot of speculation. But in response to nearly every question during his first press conference in June, the answer was some combination of "no forward guidance" and "we've got a task force for that."Fast-forward to July and then to yesterday. Treasury yields spiked, and Warsh suddenly became very straightforward.At July’s meeting, he glossed over his rethinking of how inflation should be measured and returned to a hard 2% target. "There's only one target, and it's 2%." He also started tossing out the Fed's textbook inflation measures: CPI, PPI, and PCE.Another sign that Warsh may have been forced to hike is that neither the economic data nor the Fed's own projections have materially changed since he took over.Back in June, the FOMC was coming off five years of above-target inflation. And Warsh himself admitted this:"For more than five years, inflation has been running above target. The plain fact is that inflation is too high and has been for too long."In Warsh's own words, productivity and economic growth "looked strong," just as they did yesterday. And the FOMC's median inflation projections for the rest of the year were nearly identical to yesterday's projections.Yet, the Fed didn't budge on rates. And whenever someone from the press challenged him on that, the answer was blunt: "I've got nothing more to say than the statement itself"; "We've got a task force for that."Even though there's still not much information about those task forces, what we do know is that the Warsh didn't wait for their findings and hiked yesterday.So whatever the real intention behind this reform is, the bond market may have really forced his hand on this one.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-17T15:03:53.774419+00:001linkedin.cominflationfedmonetary-policy753https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFPZYisJxJwkQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCueuF1KAAc-/0/1789633684274?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=PxEsc8D3Qhdln1w733cMvyoM2smQ_hVou2zZqdTWBt4View image2026-09-17T15:03:55.674238+00:00856https://www.linkedin.com/in/tomas-pristac/Tomas Pristac ⇄ Premium Profile 2ndTwo inflation engines running simultaneously and neither has an off switch. Oil is a supply shock you can't drill your way out of while Houthi drones are redecorating Saudi pipeline infrastructure. AI capex is a demand shock you can't stop because every CEO who pauses loses three years of competitive position.Meanwhile Warsh is hiking into this. The one tool he has (rates) addresses demand. Neither of these problems is demand. He's performing surgery on the wrong patient with the right instruments. Welcome to the policy trap of the decade.Hike + Hawkish Warsh = Banks profiting on a first sight, reprice loans upward quickly while deposit costs stay sticky. Maybe $NWBI ?https://www.linkedin.com/feed0.00552026-09-17T04:42:31.762497+00:001linkedin.cominflationoilai834@HenrikZebergHenrik Zeberg"We are reliving 1970s Stagflation" NO - we are NOT!!! Inflation can be resilient, when Consumers have extra money in their pockets. They can "carry" the inflation on. That was the case in 1970s - where savings rate was 9-15%. Consumer could chose to dive a little deeper in the pocket. Today it is 3%! The consumer does not have that choice! (.... and btw - the job creation is also WEAKER today!) It is a COMPLETELY different situation!https://x.com/HenrikZeberg/status/20999277662756907600.00502026-09-16T15:42:26.721652+00:002x.cominflationstagflationeconomy714https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSRwZc0WkAAvEgM?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-16T15:42:27.180786+00:00721https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAIn 2021 the government was printing and 20-year TIPS paid you NEGATIVE 0.8% after inflation. You paid them to protect your money.Today those same inflation-protected yields sit near 2.7%, the highest in over 15 years. The 30-year is above 3%.The government is still spending like a drunken sailor, so the bond market is finally forcing it to pay up. For the first time since before COVID, you can lock in a real return that beats inflation, "guaranteed."Debasement created the problem. It also created the payout.Source: Kurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®@kurtsaltrichterhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00502026-09-14T20:34:44.639926+00:001linkedin.cominflationinvestmentsbonds629https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterAnother deep green night for commodities.The input costs for just about all basic necessities are in a strong bull market that is gaining momentum.Record diesel prices, record beef prices, $100+ oil prices, and record copper prices.The most interesting part of it all is that the S&P 500 is ~2% away from a record high and up sharply on the year.This is what happens when an energy crisis, inflation, and the biggest technological revolution in history all intersect.As we have been warning for 2+ years:Own assets or be left behind.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-14T04:21:50.076091+00:001linkedin.cominflationenergycommodities555https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQE5ai2NyKf7cA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCdu6sbLAAk-/0/1789352717314?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=JMmOXcKMjdP9SsspytquqrsxNalvHrotr-8vFyXhRDEView image2026-09-14T04:21:50.433305+00:00628https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterInflation expectations skyrocketing among Americans:US consumers now expect inflation to rise to ~4.6% over the next year, the 3rd-highest reading over the last 12 months.This is now 1.1 percentage points above the level seen at the start of 2026.This comes as the proportion of consumers spontaneously mentioning gasoline as a concern rose to ~30%, its 4th-highest in at least 2 years.At the same time, ~37% of consumers mentioned tariffs, the highest proportion since April.Americans think another wave of inflation has begun.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00502026-09-14T04:21:12.235296+00:001linkedin.cominflationgasolinetariffs554https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGYs2GbUd_76w/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCcEf1GIUAc-/0/1789324820061?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=eKrpHd_R6KU4g8GtXiWY4Kql2zBx7OAVmacpnHD7PbEView image2026-09-14T04:21:12.723623+00:00568https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterInvestors are increasingly bearish on inflation-protected Treasuries:Short interest on the TIPS ETF, TIP, is up to ~6% of shares outstanding, triple the levels seen in late 2025.The fund tracks an index of inflation-protected Treasury bonds, whose prices generally fall when real yields rise.This figure is now in-line with the highest levels recorded in December 2021, just 3 months before the Fed started hiking rates.Short interest on TIP peaked at ~8% in Q2 but has remained above 4% for the majority of the year.Investors are more aggressively betting against TIP prices as strong economic growth, rising fiscal concerns, and debt-fueled AI infrastructure investment have led investors to demand higher yields on Treasuries.Real Treasury yields are gaining momentum.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-09-11T05:05:08.065506+00:001linkedin.cominflationinvestorstreasuries543https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: US oil prices surge toward $95/barrel, now up +41% since July 2nd.At the current pace, US oil prices will be above $100 by Friday.Something has to give or inflation is set to get much worse.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/?highlightedUpdateUrn=urn%3Ali%3Aactivity%3A75032468013833175040.00702026-09-09T04:16:52.216762+00:001linkedin.comoil-pricesus-oilinflation530https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterLeading indicators point to higher US inflation.The ISM Services Prices Paid Index rose +2.3 points in August, to 72.6, its highest since July 2022.Since February, the index has risen +9.6 points, its largest 6-month increase since May 2025.Historically, this metric has led CPI inflation and core PCE inflation by ~6 months.If the historical relationship holds, the current reading suggests CPI could rise to as high as 6.0% in the coming months, from 3.4% in July.At the same time, this implies core PCE could increase above 4.0%, from July’s reported 3.3%.Inflation pressures are intensifying in the US.https://www.linkedin.com/feed0.00702026-09-09T01:29:10.292009+00:001linkedin.cominflationuseconomics474https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHe92FP6DWrAA/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaCCbvjzKwAc-/0/1788894706169?e=1790812800&v=beta&t=tN2iKHFknYXKbrKIxSjQXFKBNz3lBeSxTDQ_k3jxPKkView image2026-09-09T01:29:10.752235+00:00519https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: Brent crude oil prices rise above $99/barrel for the first time since July 24th as the US and Iran exchange strikes.Inflation expectations are rising sharply.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00502026-09-08T13:04:59.696090+00:001linkedin.cominflationmarketsoil466https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHIpm4WKIYdxQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4DaCA9_OgHUAk-/0/1788870128788?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=LnglrW7rWK3AhSNNRD9BRU4d-Lom3q04QvHxRinl3b4View image2026-09-08T13:05:00.253895+00:00449https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterKey Events This Week:1. US Markets Closed, Labor Day - Monday2. US 10Y Note Auction - Wednesday3. August PPI Inflation data - Thursday4. August Existing Home Sales data - Thursday 5. August CPI Inflation data - Friday6. September MI Inflation Expectations data - Friday7. September MI Consumer Sentiment data - FridayThis marks the final week of inflation data before the September Fed meeting.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/0.00602026-09-06T15:23:46.023262+00:001linkedin.cominflationus-marketsdata413https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFXiwh7x99Fgg/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaB3SjrCKoAk-/0/1788707748782?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=UVsCCj0bM04M1viblqXT4cLD3tdTkVtx_Zfs6W-ZNMoView image2026-09-06T15:23:47.140792+00:00396@kurtsaltrichterKurt S. Altrichter, CRPS®The only thing that has ever caused inflation just turned higher again. M2 money supply is growing close to 5% a year, the fastest since 2022, and sits at a record above $22 trillion. In 2023 it shrank for the first time in decades, and that is exactly when goods inflation cooled. Now the Fed is cutting rates and buying Treasuries while the money supply re-accelerates. Tariffs and wages move single prices. This line moves the price level. The next inflation wave is being printed right now. Own the assets that get repriced, not the cash that gets debased.https://x.com/kurtsaltrichter/status/20959968348376310160.00502026-09-05T10:38:48.034072+00:002x.cominflationratesmoney-supply366https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRZ6A4CWMAILOZJ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-05T10:38:48.746864+00:00376https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/The Kobeissi LetterThe system is broken.You know the system is broken when stocks FALL after the US unexpectedly adds +162,000 jobs in a month, TRIPLING expectations.Why? Because a strong jobs report means a higher chance of rate hikes.This is the product of 60-straight months of 2%+ inflation.Markets now "want" a labor market collapse.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/0.00602026-09-04T14:58:16.785873+00:001linkedin.cominflationjobseconomy349https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHP3zwUR0Kfmg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBsk.hEHQAc-/0/1788528028010?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=obVtBPOeR_EVF8WFmZO3LH7W1upR5c9vBiUIT0YGHqMView image2026-09-04T14:58:17.999297+00:00372@MarioNawfalMario Nawfal🇺🇸 🇮🇷 U.S. diesel prices have hit a record $5.85 per gallon, surpassing the previous peak from June 2022 as war continues to squeeze global fuel supplies. The pressure is coming from both directions: refined fuel shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have been disrupted, while Russia extended its diesel export ban after Ukrainian strikes on its refineries. For the Fed, record diesel prices are another inflation headache, raising costs across the economy just as it prepares for its September rate decision. What begins on a foreign battlefield quickly lands in Americans' pocketbooks... Source: Bloomberg / Writer: Mhedihttps://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/20958392903414377990.00602026-09-04T12:54:20.328763+00:002x.cominflationfueldiesel343https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRXYEtcXQAIUCVe?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:54:20.578045+00:00344https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRXYE7eW8AEks1e?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:54:20.602491+00:00345https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRXYFN3WYAMf_3Y?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:54:20.621654+00:00302https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: ~54% of goods and services in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) basket have recorded price increases of more than 3% over the last 12 months, near the highest proportion in 3 years.This metric has surged +16 percentage points since Q1 2025.By comparison, the 2022 peak was ~77%, while the 12-month average is ~37%.However, this percentage remains significantly above the ~32% average seen in the 20 years before the 2020 pandemic.To put this into perspective, during the 2012-2019 period, this figure never materially exceeded 30%.The fight against inflation is far from over.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/0.00602026-09-03T20:36:08.342647+00:001linkedin.cominflationpceeconomy279https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E0BAQG97yk_RNWUoA/company-logo_100_100/company-logo_100_100/0/1731685993750?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=xbicYimdIxxEVE9Aof2-PRWKMP9cKV_Jwmrn9SJCtS4View company: The Kobeissi Letter2026-09-03T20:36:08.856819+00:00280https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHFIJesjZMmRQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBowr_XIkAg-/0/1788463989018?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=Q2EZkzVJxVLj-83vni6NPXxPAZeq_ARTlaSkZMrjglgView image2026-09-03T20:36:08.892629+00:00274@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeEuropean yields are surging... This is bad news for the US. Europe is the biggest foreign holder of USTs. Surging yields combined with huge fiscal deficits will increasingly force European governments into a tough choice: 1. Print into an inflationary spike 2. Sell USTs tohttps://x.com/ekwufinance/status/20950993057951462370.00402732026-09-02T12:53:26.682202+00:002x.comustsinflationyields251https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRNJtqNXgAAKE61?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-02T12:53:26.875284+00:00197https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>As very nicely highlighted by Lukas Ekwueme @ekwufinance on X, Fed Chair Warsh can talk tough on inflation.... But he can't act tough.- 1980 Debt/GDP: 31% vs 120% today- Interest/tax receipts: 10% vs 21% today- Deficit/GDP: 2.6% vs 6.3% todayToday's fiscal position is much weaker than it was during the Volcker era.Warsh has 2 options:1. Fight inflation and blow up the bond market.2. Sacrifice the USD to save the bond market.He will most likely go with option 2. Which is bullish scarce assets, stocks, real assets and private equity.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dSRRXDyh0.00602026-08-31T05:48:15.430356+00:001linkedin.cominflationbond-marketeconomy214https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQG6SbEwZo3OrQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaBNdlk3GwAk-/0/1788005997104?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=JoxvSJzE_2JUAp6Soy5cxZtnET_bNBBdOwezvtzf_eUView image2026-08-31T05:48:18.199120+00:00154@MarioNawfalMario Nawfal🚨 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Tehran admits trade is down 35% and inflation is at 66%, as Iran's supreme leader broke his silence to tell his own government to fix the economy Iran's leadership just did something it almost never does: published its own pain. The president told state media that trade has collapsed 35% under sanctions and blockade, and the Supreme Leader, still unseen since the February attack that killed his father, issued a written call to fight inflation, unemployment and runaway prices. Read the fine print of Washington's answer, though. Economic D-Day's newest targets are an Egyptian bank, one Hong Kong entity, and a single individual, while China and India, the buyers who actually matter, went untouched because punishing them would wound America right back. Both sides now claim the strait. Trump says it's open, the IRGC navy says those claims "are an obvious lie". Here's what the admissions really mean. Tehran is showing its people and the mediators that endurance has a price it is willing to keep paying. Source: Reuters / Writer: Danielhttps://x.com/MarioNawfal/status/20935628698706742460.00702026-08-29T06:10:44.153025+00:002x.cominflationtehran163https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQ3CK6JXMAApWDn?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-08-29T06:10:44.405309+00:00164https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQ3CMPzWQAAsUu3?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-08-29T06:10:44.422986+00:00129@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeGold call options are surging. The last time we saw these levels, gold was at ~$5K. Speculators know that: 1. The Fed can't effectively fight inflation. 2. It will have to print to suppress yields. Being long gold is the natural insurance against money printing.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/20929340409406714280.00502026-08-27T17:52:53.757745+00:002x.cominflationgold135https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQuYax4XAAALW2D?format=png&name=smallImage2026-08-27T17:52:54.090318+00:0071@TaviCostaOtavio (Tavi) CostaThere are two types of inflation: What the government reports and what the real world is experiencing. We all know which one to believe. Just wait until the Fed points to the blue line — or a similar measure — to justify easing financial conditions, even as inflation continueshttps://x.com/TaviCosta/status/20924432179293555340.00402026-08-27T06:56:14.750370+00:002x.cominflationgovernmentfed62https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HQnZ_S4bcAA4-1t?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-08-27T06:56:14.983740+00:00