Gnosly Feed - interest-rate

The Fed's Christopher Waller's call for a 50 bps rate hike in December is about what it would take to get rates back to neutral. Ignoring his boss Kevin Warsh's call for less forward guidance, Waller averred the Fed should hike 50 bps at its next meeting if the monthly change in CPI was at least 0.3%.

Wed, 11 Nov 2026 10:13:20 +0000

The chart below shows the terminal rate, ie the maximum implied rate from the strip of SOFR futures, is about 50 bps below the LW estimate of neutral. This gap is similar to other estimates based on market-observed proxies for the neutral rate.

A 50 bps hike would likely take the terminal rate about that much higher too, taking rates back to being restrictive for the first time since early 2025. That's likely what's needed to wipe out persistently elevated inflation.

House prices survived the last interest-rate rise. Will they this time?

Sun, 20 Sep 2026 17:17:08 +0000

Supports that shored up the housing market when borrowing costs last rose are gone

BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y mortg...

Fri, 18 Sep 2026 04:22:19 +0000

BREAKING: The average interest rate on a 30Y mortgage in the US rises to 7.24%, the highest level in 19 months. This officially pushes the payment on a $500,000 mortgage above $3,400/month. By comparison, the same mortgage came with a payment of $2,995/month just 7 months ago. That's an additional ~$4,860/year in interest for homebuyers. Mortgage rates are now up 125 basis points since late-February.