https://gnosly.com/feed/japan/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3430https://www.linkedin.com/in/christophe-barraud-68870620/Christophe Barraud<p>In September, Chinese brands accounted for 12.7% of European car sales, compared with 11.9% for Japanese automakers, with registrations nearly doubling year-over-year. BYD, Chery, and their competitors are now gaining market share at an extraordinary pace, and their success is no longer driven solely by electric vehicles.</p><p>In October 2024, the European Union introduced additional tariffs of up to 35.3% on Chinese-made battery-electric vehicles, on top of the standard 10% import duty, but hybrids were not covered. Chinese automakers quickly accelerated their expansion into this segment, which is attractive to European consumers who remain hesitant about going fully electric. As a result, their share of European hybrid sales has surged to ~32% while hybrid technology has historically been one of the Japanese auto industry's greatest competitive advantages.</p><p>China is no longer competing with Western automakers solely on price; it is now challenging them directly in their own strategic segments. With highly integrated supply chains, significant expertise in battery manufacturing, and the ability to develop new models at remarkable speed, Chinese brands enjoy substantial competitive advantages. Meanwhile, European manufacturers must finance their technological transition while facing increasing pressure on volumes and margins.</p><p>Brussels is now trying to restrict Chinese hybrid imports but tariffs cannot restore an industry's competitiveness. BYD is already developing manufacturing operations in Hungary, Chery is preparing production in Spain, and Leapmotor is leveraging Stellantis European factories. If Europe taxes cars manufactured in China, Chinese automakers can increasingly manufacture those same vehicles directly in Europe.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dujWtrSU0.00302026-10-26T09:34:25.195302+00:001linkedin.comchinacarsjapan3272https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEBv86eTQC_lg/feedshare-shrink_480/B4EaF3IcByKgAg-/0/1793000063331?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=Ihek54Vl9WFvZDcg1MJd_hTrqyX1TZd-h1fdobdOnFwView image2026-10-26T09:34:26.527188+00:003420https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>So far in 2026, they dumped -¥5.18 trillion, or -33.0 billion, the biggest sale for this period of the year since 2022. This comes as Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen by more than +80 basis points this year, making domestic bonds increasingly attractive and encouraging investors to redirect capital toward the home market. </p><p>Meanwhile, foreign investors bought +¥1.45 trillion in Japanese long-term bonds this week, marking their 3rd consecutive week of purchases. Rising bond yields in Japan are making foreign bonds and equities less attractive to Japanese investors.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dUD2seDp0.00202026-10-26T06:54:58.427165+00:001linkedin.combondsjapaneconomy3260https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHKGktFM_yJsA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaFywcjLKMAk-/0/1792926665170?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=kxn1mjeiSw9WBt1gEmm51sE2aBD518mxVcTzzq67nrwView image2026-10-26T06:54:59.884276+00:003271Lim Hui Jie<p>Source: CNBC</p>https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/23/japan-inflation-september-highest-in-2026.html0.00502026-10-23T05:50:21.294174+00:0026cnbc.comjapaninflationeconomy3111https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108255448-1769050069590-gettyimages-2256453326-JAPAN_CPI.jpeg?v=1769050082&w=240&h=180&vtcrop=yJapan core inflation in September surges to its highest this year at 2.1%2026-10-23T05:50:21.557538+00:003189<p>The Finance Ministry’s preliminary data showed that Japan’s exports for the April-September period grew 18.4% from the same period the previous year to 63.5 trillion yen, while imports soared to 66.3 trillion yen, up 20.4% year-over-year. Both were record highs for Japan. </p><p>The soaring price of oil affects a wide range of sectors, including plastic goods and shipping costs. </p><p>Resource-poor Japan imports virtually all its oil and has relied on access to the Strait of Hormuz in the Middle East for its oil shipments. </p><p>That’s now basically blocked, and Japan has had to pay more to get shipments from other routes. Brent crude, the international standard, has soared from $70 a barrel in February to around $110 a barrel. </p><p>For the month of September, Japan’s trade deficit totaled 536.6 billion yen, marking the fifth month of deficits, down from 1.1 trillion yen in August.</p>https://aje.news/r3rtel0.00502026-10-21T05:59:53.323739+00:005aljazeera.comjapandeficiteconomy3115https://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/Jakob Riemann, CFE<p>Source: Jakob Riemann (LinkedIn)</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-10-20T09:50:00.469032+00:001linkedin.combondsjapaneconomy2976https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHHJWGpWI9ySQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaFYtlRnKsAk-/0/1792489706903?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=bc7C7FhvSlfaPtNsOMsa_pxed3lyKh4mZ_m5_TV6c5MView image2026-10-20T09:50:01.146787+00:003054@InvestywiseInvestyWise by Groww<p>Source: Investywise (X)</p>https://x.com/Investywise/status/21117885091368144580.00402026-10-19T11:37:20.655959+00:002x.comjapanindiaeconomy2893https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU6Uc7VagAAkFsQ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-19T11:37:21.830800+00:002990https://www.linkedin.com/in/vincentius-liong/Vincentius Liong/Leong 梁国豪<p>The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook, released October 13, puts South Korea’s GDP per capita at $43,512 for 2026. </p><p>Japan’s figure is about $35,400.That puts Korea roughly $8,100 ahead per person, about 23%. Korea’s number jumped 19.5% in a single year, from $36,408 in 2025. </p><p>As recently as April, the IMF had Korea at $37,412 this year and did not expect it to cross $40,000 until 2028. </p><p>Japan’s figure is lower today than it was in 1995, when it topped $40,000.</p><p>The IMF credits Korea’s surge to strong global demand for semiconductors and names Korea and Taiwan as key suppliers of the hardware behind the AI boom.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dx8xCWza0.00802026-10-18T07:03:01.823002+00:001linkedin.comjapansouth-koreaeconomy2824https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQH0L6F6shIfqg/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aE.96xAK8Ag-/0/1792057781617?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=cXvigPu9esVMyJmlzsPqyJp3vTVpVmdIQdiDOs9ZeT8View image2026-10-18T07:03:02.959380+00:002861@cryptoroverCrypto Rover<p>Source: Crypto Rover (X)</p>https://x.com/cryptorover/status/21105567062375057030.00502026-10-15T06:13:42.167697+00:002x.comstocksjapannikkei2682https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUo0IPYXIAAagSs?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-15T06:13:42.673536+00:002843@Yomiuri_Online読売新聞オンライン<p>Source: Yomiuri_Online (X), quoting IMF</p>https://x.com/Yomiuri_Online/status/21099875301291585140.00702026-10-14T10:29:35.045244+00:002x.comeconomyindiajapan2663https://pbs.twimg.com/card_img/2109987482414772224/484PcJaJ?format=jpg&name=small2026-10-14T10:29:37.574703+00:002800@Time_HorizonXTime Horizon<p>Source: Time Horizon (X)</p>https://x.com/Time_HorizonX/status/21098834121947549270.00502026-10-13T11:26:15.423059+00:002x.comexportsjapaneconomy2615https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUfJ97dbcAAcdqw?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-13T11:26:16.135739+00:002516@BarchartBarchart<p>Source: Barchart (X)</p>https://x.com/Barchart/status/21085160222400841540.00502026-10-09T12:01:37.076841+00:002x.comstocksjapan2341https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUL0JjNWsAA5k3T?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-09T12:01:38.251638+00:002389@xavier_delmasXavier Delmas<p>The world's most indebted developed country must now pay to borrow. </p>https://x.com/xavier_delmas/status/21075128003565571950.00502026-10-07T06:59:47.851507+00:002x.comeconomicsjapanfinance2201https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT9jrD_WYAAPsH1?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T06:59:48.827698+00:002261https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/Wim Grommen<p>Japan Just Broke The French Bond MarketOne Tokyo fund (Sumitomo Mitsui DS) didn’t trim exposure. It dumped every French government bond it held and rotated into German Bunds and short-term Japanese paper. Not a reduction. Full exit. Something that even shocked the Financial Street. The France-Germany 10-year spread blew past 140 basis points, the widest gap since the euro crisis. France's 5-year CDS has spiked up to 81 basis points, the highest since 2013. The higher the number, the greater the risk of national bankruptcy.French domestic holders are now facing a deeper mark-to-market loss and a less liquid exit to sell into the same one-way market.Japanese investors still sit on roughly ¥25 trillion of French debt, second only to American holders and this was a single manager’s book.Carry trades that funded higher-yielding global debt market with cheap yen just got a live demo of how fast the unwind can hit. When the bid from Japan disappears, the largest European sovereign market has to find new buyers at the same time its own government is arguing over a deficit plan that markets already distrust. If more Japanese money follows the same exit, the same flow that once compressed euro spreads can reprice them in the other direction. We now understand what @yutokanzakireal meant by saying “Japan is bringing the entire house down” in response to Scott Bessent’s “I am the house now” statement: Ending cheap-yen funding is forcing a margin call on the leveraged global debt system built on the carry trade and not just the U.S. leverage.France just got the first real look at what Japan’s wealth returning to the homeland looks like. Post by Stern Drew on X</p>https://www.linkedin.com/in/wim-grommen-87aa7632/0.00602026-10-05T09:00:18.607041+00:001linkedin.combondsjapanfrance2085https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQG_F_PlZzPnhQ/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaELAmJwJkAk-/0/1791186068397?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=xZWA8CHpnS2r9ADuNBieRYweiQD_aoT7QHI9bUJZAEAView image2026-10-05T09:00:19.680600+00:002260https://www.linkedin.com/in/ruth-carson-3a22897/Ruth Carson<p>🇫🇷 French Bonds at Risk of More Japanese Selling on Outsized Stake 🇫🇷Japanese investors hold far more French bonds than benchmark weightings recommend, raising the threat of a new wave of selling that could deepen France’s debt rout.A Bloomberg analysis estimates investors in the Asian nation own ¥23 trillion ($145 billion) worth of French bonds as of July. That’s 6.6% of the Asian nation’s total overseas debt holdings, making them the most overweight in the euro region relative to the Bloomberg Global Aggregate Index.France is facing a bond crisis just as sentiment for the nation’s debt has soured on missed deficit targets, policy gridlock and presidential elections next year that could radically alter the country’s direction. dent sentiment on the nation’s debt. While Japanese investors have remained steadfast holders of French paper through multiple episodes of political and market turmoil, the risks of further selling may be higher this time around.That’s because rising yields at home are making Japanese government debt more attractive, boosting incentives to repatriate money and potentially eroding a support pillar for the European debt. Among investors already positioned for further drops in French bonds is Fivestar Asset Management Co.’s Hideo Shimomura.“This is just the beginning,” Shimomura said of France’s debt selloff. “If the European Central Bank just leaves things alone, there are concerns that, judging from the European debt crisis, France’s 10-year government bond yield could rise as high as 7%." Read More: https://lnkd.in/gc-CU_f6 Reporting with Masaki Kondo in Tokyo.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dsPUGsxt0.00802026-10-05T08:53:01.296137+00:001linkedin.comfrancebondsjapan2084https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQEF5zYp_MMpIQ/feedshare-shrink_1280/B56aEKyfLUHQAQ-/0/1791182369710?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=FXL5405HoEL7RQUmJIkc-LlUg0u7Qag3WfUzhiL4W7QView image2026-10-05T08:53:01.974784+00:002092@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>Japan’s unemployment rate just jumped to 2.5%, above the 2.4% expected. That might look small, but Japan has one of the worst labor shortages in the world because its population is shrinking and aging. And now the job market is weakening while the bond market is already under huge pressure. Japan’s 10-year bond yield just hit its highest level since 1996. The 30-year yield just hit its highest level on record. So Japan is now dealing with: → A shrinking workforce → Rising unemployment → Record-high long-term borrowing costs → An aging population For years, Japan’s problem was that it couldn’t find enough workers. Now unemployment is rising at the same time borrowing costs are hitting levels Japan hasn’t dealt with in decades. This is exactly the kind of combination Japan did not need right now.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21058925839564844490.00502026-10-02T05:37:56.292849+00:002x.comlaborjapaneconomy1896https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTmiHnja8AAS770?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-02T05:37:56.539935+00:002039@LitestLitest<p>Japan's long-term bond yields continue to rise. • 10Y yield hits 3.11%, its highest level in about 30 years. • 20Y yield hits 3.96%, also near a 30-year high. Japan's bond yields are now at levels not seen in decades.</p>https://x.com/Litest/status/21055700317950525890.00502026-10-01T09:11:49.017594+00:002x.combondsjapanyields1839https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTh8xrqWoAAxsPV?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T09:11:49.463669+00:002014https://www.linkedin.com/in/matt-oliver1matt-oliver1Japan will pay $108 billion in debt interest next year (16.59 Trillion Yen). An all-time record.Their entire tax revenue is roughly $460 billion.One in four tax dollars, just for interest.The BoJ is still hiking. The number will be higher next year, and the year after.https://www.linkedin.com/posts/matt-oliver1_japan-will-pay-108-billion-in-debt-interest-share-7503780639029174274-KKeg/0.00402026-10-01T05:20:00.775651+00:001linkedin.comeconomyjapandebt1812https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFDdNXuKycgHA/feedshare-shrink_160/B4EaCLIupgHoAo-/0/1789040716653?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=suuJrC7ySpTyIPBK-OgwHhzmXDK3ePQRxiFmblZFSI4View image2026-10-01T05:20:01.731068+00:001936https://www.linkedin.com/in/ryanlemand/Ryan Lemand, PhD<p>Japan has twice the debt ratio of the US and pays a fifth of the interest, so stop using Japan to argue the US has timeThe most common reassurance about American debt goes: Japan carries more than 230% of GDP and nothing happened, the US is at 122%, so the US has decades. This chart ends the argument. On the 2027 forecast the US pays net interest of 4.3% of GDP, the highest of 30 developed economies, above Italy, above Hungary, above the UK, while Japan pays 0.9%. Debt to GDP is the wrong ratio because interest to GDP is the one that binds, and the two countries reach opposite results for 4 reasons. Japan's gross debt overstates its position, since the state holds enormous financial assets and its net debt is closer to 135% of GDP. The Bank of Japan owns roughly half the stock and remits the interest back to the treasury, so half the bill is paid to itself. The average rate on the JGB stock is near 1% on a long average maturity, so this year's move in yields feeds in slowly. And Japan is the world's largest creditor nation, funding its own debt from domestic savings and a current account surplus, whereas the US is the world's largest debtor, borrowing from foreigners who are now selling. The US, by contrast, holds 22% of its marketable debt in bills that reprice within a year, its average rate is rising every month, and net interest already exceeds the defense budget on the way to a projected $2.1 trillion by 2036.Source on graph.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/d4Mqc2Dp0.00902026-09-30T05:24:39.467864+00:001linkedin.comeconomicsjapandebt1727https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQFnzg5lAs32lw/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDcm5lEKcAc-/0/1790407580241?e=1792627200&v=beta&t=Dswi1_qEoDbKUwkZBhmtimXNd7s9Q8CmirFvvMbo110View image2026-09-30T05:24:40.944356+00:001865@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p>🚨 THERE IS JUST NO STOPPING JAPAN’S BOND CRISIS. Japan’s 2-year bond yield just hit another 31-year high. Bonds are more volatile than crypto these days.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21044817103438480660.00502026-09-28T08:22:19.077465+00:002x.combond-crisisjapanfinance1644https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTSe6KBbIAAz1uI?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-28T08:22:20.208876+00:001855@BullTheoryioBull Theory<p>Japanese 2 year bond yields just hit a new 31-year high of 1.975%. This means investors are pricing in Bank of Japan rates near 2% over the next couple of years. That's roughly 75 bps more hikes from the current 1.25% rate. Japan looks fully focused on ending its era of cheap money.</p>https://x.com/BullTheoryio/status/21044718501014163860.00502026-09-28T07:35:12.263385+00:002x.combondsjapaneconomy1636IMAGE/media/content/1855/g-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgg-20260928-japan-bonds.jpgjpg2026-09-28T07:36:46.749916+00:001678@caseyjdonaldsonCasey DonaldsonChina and Japan alone have sold $200 billion of UST holdings in the last 6 months. Japan dumped $135 billion to support the yen. The Iran War and high oil prices have forced Japan to sell dollars to buy oil. The last thing the U.S. needs is heavy UST selling as it fights a war that could alter its position as the global superpower. Bessent and Warsh need to cut rates and let inflation fix the debt problem. You need to own more Bitcoin and Zcash for what's coming...https://x.com/caseyjdonaldson/status/21035088278490155190.00502026-09-25T16:31:45.836993+00:002x.comustjapanbitcoin1473https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTEOEUoXAAAwp5A?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T16:31:46.378895+00:001636@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeHoly shit... Japanese rates are going bananas. JGB markets were closed for the past few days, so this is their reaction to: - US diesel export ban - No prospect of Hormuz reopening All of this points to higher inflation, so investors are demanding higher yields. The government can't afford these high yields... Japan will soon have to stop QT and go back to QE/YCC. We don't own enough gold for what's coming.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/21030701315260052290.00402026-09-25T08:20:32.484019+00:002x.cominflationratesjapan1436https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS-bH3qXEAAiCJ6?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T08:20:32.876748+00:001633@elerianmMohamed A. El-ErianFlying under many radars for now, but probably not for long: The Japanese Yen has weakened back to 159 per U.S. dollar (CNBC chart), approaching the established FX intervention zone. This matters far beyond Japan for a key reason right now: Japanese foreign exchange intervention typically involves selling US securities to buy Yen, potentially adding yield pressures to an already sensitive Treasury market.https://x.com/elerianm/status/21031497479348023160.00502026-09-25T07:05:48.601269+00:002x.commarketsjapaneconomy1434https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS_hetQbgAAxOaZ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-25T07:05:49.399160+00:001482https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIADespite rising yields, Japan’s net interest payments as a share of GDP are projected to remain among the lowest in the OECD in 2027. Source: Japan Economy Watch(((The Daily Shot)))@SoberLookhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/0.00602026-09-23T15:47:41.916488+00:001linkedin.comfinancejapaneconomy1303IMAGE/media/content/1482/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-23T15:48:00.448300+00:001123Fewer births and worsening labour shortages are placing mounting pressure on Japan’s social care system.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/19/japan-has-record-100000-people-aged-over-100-how-societies-are-ageing0.00502026-09-19T15:16:05.201407+00:005aljazeera.comageingjapanexplainer960https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/getty_6aad35dadd-1789736410.jpg?resize=270%2C180&quality=80HIROSHIMA, JAPAN - SEPTEMBER 11: Toshisuke Kanazawa, a 90-year-old bodybuilder, trains in his gym in Hiroshima, Japan, on September 11, 2026. Kanazawa, Japan's oldest competitive bodybuilder and a 19-time bodybuilding champion, who turned 90 on August 29 won the All Japan Masters Fitness Championship last month. Kanazawa and his fellow competitors actively train as bodybuilders throughout their lives. Japan has the world's oldest population, with a record 29.4% of its 123 million residents aged 65 or older. (Photo by Tomohiro Ohsumi/Getty Images)2026-09-19T15:16:06.923049+00:001084https://www.linkedin.com/in/masayuki-nakajima-128219219/Masayuki NakajimaBoJ Hike, Yen Weakness, and the Surprise Rate Check18 September was a remarkable day for JPY. The BOJ raised rates by 25bp to 1.25%, yet USD/JPY initially moved higher, before reversing sharply following Nikkei reports of BoJ rate checks.The first point worth emphasizing is that the BoJ's rate hike was by no means dovish. The Bank raised its policy rate by 25bp to 1.25%. Coming just 3 months after the June meeting, the move marked a clear acceleration in the pace of policy normalization compared with the previous pattern of roughly one rate hike every 6 months. Governor Ueda also stated during his press conference that "the phase of monetary policy has changed," signalling that the BoJ is moving away from maintaining highly accommodative conditions and toward a stronger focus on containing inflation.So why did the yen weaken?Part of the answer is that expectations had become too elevated. Following recent comments from U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent, some investors may have priced in a much broader shift in Japan's policy framework. Instead, the BoJ delivered a conventional 25bp hike, while the cabinet reshuffle offered little evidence of a major change in Japan's fiscal stance.The two dissenting votes from Board members Asada and Sato also attracted attention. While their opposition to the rate hike was not a complete surprise, it highlighted divisions within the BoJ at a time when both the ECB and the Fed had been delivering rate increases with unanimous vote. In addition, Governor Ueda clearly distanced himself from market speculation about back-to-back hikes or a larger 50bp move that had gained traction following Board member Takata's speech in early September. Takata himself did not advocate a 50bp hike, and the hawkish surprise that some market participants had anticipated ultimately failed to materialize.USD/JPY briefly traded in the 158s before reports of BoJ rate checks triggered a sharp reversal.The timing was notable. With Japan entering a five-day holiday period, liquidity conditions are likely to thin, increasing the risk of speculative moves. The rate checks appeared aimed at reminding markets that the authorities are not comfortable with a renewed move toward 160.The yen's weakness can partly be explained as a correction of overly optimistic policy expectations. At the same time, the fact that rate checks were deemed necessary on the very day the BoJ raised rates may reinforce market perceptions of the yen's underlying structural weakness. On the other hand, the move also demonstrated that the authorities are not prepared to tolerate an excessively rapid depreciation of the currency. During next week's holiday period, the market is therefore likely to be caught between persistent depreciation pressures and heightened intervention concerns. #Japan #BoJ #USDJPYhttps://www.linkedin.com/in/masayuki-nakajima-128219219/0.01202026-09-19T07:36:51.098594+00:001linkedin.combojusdjpyjapan908IMAGE/media/content/1084/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-19T07:37:27.856311+00:001071@DarioCpxJustDarioTranslated from Japanese #JustDarioDaily ⚠️ A PEEK INTO THE FUTURE: $USD / $JPY ROAD TO 300 ⚠️ Sadly, Japan is heading toward a very harsh future 🤷🏻‍♀️ Article 👇🏻 https://justdario.com/2024/06/a-peek-into-the-future-usd-jpy-road-to-300/https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/202406242323260.00702026-09-18T16:25:12.244580+00:002x.comjapanjustdariodailyfinance898https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/26a0.svg⚠️2026-09-18T16:25:12.528968+00:00899https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/26a0.svg⚠️2026-09-18T16:25:12.606296+00:00900https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f937-1f3fb-200d-2640-fe0f.svg🤷🏻‍♀️2026-09-18T16:25:12.655348+00:00901https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f447-1f3fb.svg👇🏻2026-09-18T16:25:12.690849+00:001034Lim Hui JieWhy Japan’s markets flipped the usual script after central bank rate hikehttps://www.cnbc.com/2026/09/18/japan-rate-hike-stocks-rise-bond-yields-yen-fall.html0.00402026-09-18T13:32:12.307740+00:0026cnbc.commarketscentral-bankjapan871https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108226559-1763336876679-gettyimages-2244583347-AFP_833D7UM.jpeg?v=1769805050&w=240&h=180&vtcrop=yWhy Japan’s markets flipped the usual script after central bank rate hike2026-09-18T13:32:12.574144+00:001019@DarioCpxJustDarioBOJ rates decision in few hours, I hardly think they are going to do anything different from what they did for the past four decades because that the only thing they can do unless they want to put the reset button of Japan Financial System, reboot it and rebuild it from the asheshttps://x.com/DarioCpx/status/21007433097278099830.00402026-09-18T06:54:18.740391+00:002x.combojjapanfinance857https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSdW57cakAAmj_J?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T06:54:19.632914+00:001005@ekwufinanceLukas EkwuemeJapan is fucked... it can't seriously fight inflation. Its interest expenses have more than doubled over the last 4 years... Fighting inflation through interest rate hikes will blow up interest expenses even further. The current average yield on Japan's debt is ~1%... while the JP10Y yield is at ~3%. Just refinancing the debt at current rates would eventually 3x Japan's interest expenses. Sooner rather than later, Japan will have to give up on fighting inflation... The same is true for the US and much of the developed world. We all don't own enough hard assets for when this happens.https://x.com/ekwufinance/status/21006470444570750170.00402026-09-18T04:21:48.402853+00:002x.cominflationeconomicsjapan846https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSb_QfCWIAAySUW?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-18T04:21:49.315854+00:001002@puckrinNicSwitzerland is the new Japan. For decades traders borrowed yen cheap to buy higher yielding assets. That's ending. The BoJ is expected to hike rates today on top of 2 rate hikes earlier this year. 2yr Japanese yields are near record highs. But, carry is rotating into the Swiss franc with Franc-funded carry up 14% YTD. Soon, everyone will be watching the Swiss central bank meetings.https://x.com/puckrin/status/21007557778543125260.00502026-09-18T04:14:41.851694+00:002x.comswitzerlandjapanfinance843https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSdgoKsaIAAjR1J?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T04:14:42.184882+00:00755@macropaperrThe Macro PaperThis is not an AI stock. This is Japan's 10-year yield, which hits a 31-year high today. When bond yields go vertical like this, it's a sign that there's a lot of pain ahead for the economy.https://x.com/macropaperr/status/20997588672235483110.00502026-09-15T13:43:52.975908+00:002x.comyieldsjapaneconomy650https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSPRQX0asAA41qk?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-15T13:43:53.359249+00:00713@caseyjdonaldsonCasey Donaldson🚨 JAPAN COULD BE THE REASON GLOBAL MARKETS BREAK Bessent just sent a warning across global markets. A disorderly Yen triggers forced unwinds. Forced unwinds destabilize global markets. Destabilized global markets push US borrowing costs higher. The yen strengthened to 153 after Bessent intervened, buying billions of yen with dollars. The intervention will fail like the last. Bessent knows what happens next, and he's telling you without telling you. Japan's problem is America's problem.https://x.com/caseyjdonaldson/status/20992917817623349420.00602026-09-14T20:25:19.605630+00:002x.comyenglobal-marketsjapan616https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSIuFPnWQAcXj2j?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-14T20:25:19.879045+00:00507WHY JAPAN’S DEBT WOES COULD TURN INTO A GLOBAL DEBT CRISIS Japan’s rising bond yields could turn a domestic debt problem into a global liquidity shock. If the 10-year JGB moves toward the model-implied 4.5%, the shrinking U.S.-Japan yield gap could unwind the yen carry trade, drain demand from U.S. Treasuries and push borrowing costs higher worldwide. To read my full story on FXEmpire: https://lnkd.in/eFWcVa7zhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:share:7502755749832417280/0.00352026-09-08T09:18:22.589634+00:001linkedin.comglobaljapandebt457IMAGE/media/content/507/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-08T09:19:02.786456+00:00506https://www.linkedin.com/in/mike-berardi/Michael BerardiJapan dumped $87.8 billion of foreign securities in August, per Bloomberg, mostly US Treasuries. That wasn't portfolio rebalancing. It was how Tokyo paid for the largest single-month currency intervention on record. The Finance Ministry numbers are stark. Reserves fell 6.18% to $1.208 trillion, the biggest monthly drop since records began in 2000. Securities holdings fell 9.5%. Japan has now spent ¥27.1 trillion defending the yen this year, more than any full year ever, and it's only September. The war chest it's drawing from is about 80% dollar assets. The yen got weak enough, at a 40-year low, that Japan had to defend it by selling dollars. That's the same yen the world borrows at near zero to buy higher-yielding assets. The carry trade. Rising Japanese yields are now killing that trade from the other side, so leveraged money is exiting dollar assets just as Japan, the largest foreign holder of Treasuries, starts selling from its reserves too. Washington's answer: joint intervention for the first time since 1998, plus a quiet nod to the Fed's dollar repo backstop so Japan can raise liquidity without dumping more Treasuries. The country that issues the reserve currency is now lending against its own bonds to keep its biggest creditor from selling them.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-08T09:17:28.271700+00:001linkedin.comeconomyjapanfinance456https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFYuOrG_6fBNQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaB9M4sOGgAc-/0/1788806925424?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=BXMEuQrUVH8aGTRnxrX_HIjbQ64ZQLw8QXydQzlL4KwView image2026-09-08T09:17:28.624883+00:00391Yuriy MatsoThe first 3% JGB since 1996. The US–Japan 10-year gap has halved to 1.78 points, the yen sits 5% from its weakest close on record, and the banks…https://thetradingtools.substack.com/p/japans-10-year-just-crossed-3-the0.00502026-09-05T06:17:30.014007+00:0021substack.comusyenjapan361https://substackcdn.com/image/fetch/$s_!njYQ!,w_320,h_213,c_fill,f_auto,q_auto:good,fl_progressive:steep,g_auto/https%3A%2F%2Fsubstack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fpublic%2Fimages%2Fb88d6436-5b97-44c7-9fcf-b87314446eb3_1600x900.jpeg2026-09-05T06:17:30.844554+00:00363@DarioCpxJustDarioIf Japan doesn’t stop immediately they will risk triggering a global volatility event and a stock market crash like they did in the summer of 2 years ago (when VIX spiked to 60 and Nikkei crashed 15% in a single day)https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/20954718615176565100.00453622026-09-04T12:22:51.344368+00:002x.commarketvolatilityjapan335https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRRipQ4XUAUhIei?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:22:51.622376+00:00362@DarioCpxJustDarioJapan is running out of room - if they break the 155 JPY floor, buckle up for volatility ⚠️https://x.com/DarioCpx/status/20954718615176565100.00453632026-09-04T12:22:50.708395+00:002x.comvolatilityjapanfinance334https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRSceCYbUAAfzuz?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-04T12:22:51.305170+00:00301https://www.linkedin.com/in/masayuki-nakajima-128219219/Masayuki NakajimaUSD/JPY reached the mid-155 level for the first time since early August. However, given that even actual FX interventions in April and July failed to push the pair sustainably below 155, the bar for a sustained and meaningful appreciation of the yen remains quite high.A key driver behind the recent yen strength appears to be a shift in market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remark in a CNBC interview on 31 August that "I have information the market does not have" attracted considerable attention. This was followed by a New York Times report suggesting that, during the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, he expressed concerns to Finance Minister Katayama regarding fiscal policy and central bank independence, although Japanese officials later denied the report. The episode fuelled speculation that some policy adjustments could eventually emerge in Japan, prompting investors to unwind crowded short-yen and short-JGB positions.Expectations for further BOJ tightening also strengthened. On 2 September, BOJ board member Takata suggested that both consecutive rate hikes and larger rate increases could become policy options. The following day, Bloomberg and Jiji Press reported that a September rate hike had become increasingly likely and that the BOJ was willing to consider a faster pace of normalisation thereafter. At the same time, comments from New York Fed President Williams were interpreted as slightly reducing the likelihood of additional Fed tightening. Together, these developments reinforced expectations of a narrowing US-Japan rate differential and supported further yen buying.Investors have also focused on the possibility of FX intervention or rate checks, despite the lack of concrete evidence that either has occurred. At the same time, speculation over GPIF's policy portfolio review and a possible increase in domestic asset allocations has strengthened the repatriation narrative and added to yen-buying momentum.That said, caution remains warranted regarding the outlook for USD/JPY. The BOJ is still likely to proceed carefully, balancing inflation risks against the impact of higher rates on domestic economic activity. In that sense, there remains a significant gap between market expectations and the degree of hawkishness the BOJ may ultimately be willing to deliver. Furthermore, higher oil prices stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the resulting deterioration in Japan's trade balance continue to represent structural headwinds for the yen.Moreover, a broad unwind of yen carry trades could destabilise global markets and weigh on both US equities and Treasuries. In that sense, both Japanese and US authorities are likely to prefer a gradual adjustment in USD/JPY rather than a disorderly appreciation of the yen. The recent move may therefore be better interpreted as a correction of excessively bearish yen positioning rather than the beginning of a sustained stronger-yen trend. #JPY #Japan #BOJhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00902026-09-03T20:34:16.322473+00:001linkedin.combojjpyjapan278https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQEwVi-hWkmk1A/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBns04aIkAc-/0/1788446199641?e=1790208000&v=beta&t=HpYU8Rg1YJ9GWIzGYIwLrEo5jB9k0DUDSG67SzNTHX8View image2026-09-03T20:34:16.631593+00:00264@BarchartBarchartBREAKING 🚨: Japan Japan's 2-Year Yield hits 1.86% for the first time in more than 31 years 🤯👀https://x.com/Barchart/status/20950412996110993020.00402026-09-02T12:46:59.586959+00:002x.comyieldjapanfinance237https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRMU8WgW8AE4O88?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-02T12:47:01.100829+00:00219@caseyjdonaldsonCasey Donaldson🚨 JAPAN COULD BE THE REASON GLOBAL MARKETS BREAK Bessent just sent a warning across global markets. A disorderly Yen triggers forced unwinds. Forced unwinds destabilize global markets. Destabilized global markets push US borrowing costs higher. The Yen is already weakeninghttps://x.com/caseyjdonaldson/status/20942084273082864420.00602026-08-31T10:40:59.227196+00:002x.comyenglobal-marketsjapan232https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HRAeY9gWQAAUZJ_?format=png&name=smallImage2026-08-31T10:41:01.677517+00:00180https://www.linkedin.com/in/denys-liutyi/Denys LiutyiBoJ has spent more than $96 bln of FX intervention over the past month to keep the Japanese yen below 160 - and apparently it's still too hard for them. More and more questions are being asked about the future of the yen carry trade. For years, it was a very convenient way to get additional financing almost from nothing (sorry for such a simplification). Now, with Japan finally facing "acceptable levels" of inflation and raising interest rates, borrowing in JPY is no longer as cheap as it used to be. One of the simplest ways to measure the attractiveness of the yen carry trade is to look at the spread between the BoJ and the Fed funds rate. I've built one using futures-implied paths for both rates and, apparently, markets do not expect much change in the current state of affairs. The spread seems to be around 2% in the longer run, compared with roughly 5% at its peak in 2023. Such unclear situation to be honest... I can't put everything in order in my head and don't want to give any conclusions at all. It feels like something that requires a bit more thought and analysis, not just a 2min LinkedIn post. For now, feel free to enjoy the chart.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00802026-08-30T07:37:37.360037+00:001linkedin.commacrobondyenjapan197https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D10AQHDod9WxlDihA/image-shrink_800/B4DaBIXunfI8Ak-/0/1787920575699?e=1788681600&v=beta&t=NoXMoDRtIYsrUY8777LceSX_tspG2Tj0oQ7hxoufXKkView image2026-08-30T07:37:38.910470+00:00165https://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/Jakob Riemann, CFE,Japan is struggling to sell its debt. Its 2 year government bond auction today saw weak demand.Last week, foreigners dumped short-dated JGBs at a record pace.This explains why yields hit 31 year highs.The market is hiking rates for them.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-08-29T06:24:37.360632+00:001linkedin.comjapan171https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHtGX5unUUZYg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBH4fkEKsAc-/0/1787912387076?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=RudR98o-_ObV5Nlg2-vqlDyei9NFqnEH4a5a5pd5N3cView image2026-08-29T06:24:37.566209+00:00112https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/The Kobeissi LetterThe AI boom is transforming Japan's economy.Japan's exports surged +23% YoY in July, the largest annual increase since October 2022.This is up from June's +19% gain and marks the 5th consecutive monthly increase in growth.The surge was driven by electronic component and semiconductor exports, which soared +49% YoY, fueled by demand from AI and data center investment.At the same time, passenger car exports rose +21% YoY.Shipments to the US rose +22% YoY, while exports to China and Europe jumped +26% and +19%, respectively.The improvement also comes as the Yen weakened +11% YoY last month, to a 40-year low against the US Dollar, averaging 161.83, making Japanese exports more competitive globally.The global AI investment wave is driving a sharp increase in Japanese exports.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/0.00802026-08-27T16:13:02.061048+00:001linkedin.comexportsjapan115https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGveEKDl2WfNg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaBC4ucSIQAc-/0/1787828561917?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=qWdY-3ELd0yxlE4Q4bM7ioH2QJwRREYOWFaGFrjK5FkView image2026-08-27T16:13:02.407179+00:0090https://www.linkedin.com/in/jakob-riemann-cfe-40008b13a/Jakob Riemann, CFE,JAPAN’S ECONOMIC CRISIS IS ABOUT TO GET EVEN WORSE.Japan is already dealing with surging bond yields, a weak yen, slowing growth and government debt near 250% of GDP.Now the BOJ is warning that inflation risks are rising and delaying action could force even bigger rate hikes later.But higher rates mean even more pressure on Japan’s massive debt burden, government borrowing costs and mortgage holders.Japan needs higher rates to fight inflation and support the yen.But raising them makes its debt problem even harder to manage.The BOJ is running out of easy options.Source: The Marco Paperhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00602026-08-27T09:46:02.573782+00:001linkedin.combojjapaneconomic-crisis84https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGmRkbhU-nXvQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaBCh04uIUAg-/0/1787822559055?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=uolZDnQ8UEBYtq1dTKZ3F3lOFbi-7XY2PFwAZl5lca0View image2026-08-27T09:46:03.701122+00:00