https://gnosly.com/feed/sp500/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3834@PeterMalloukPeter Mallouk<p> Source: PeterMallouk (X), chart provided by Robert Shiller</p>https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/21176195559254347090.00102026-11-03T18:27:28.111681+00:002x.comstockssp500trading3747https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HWFWEgzXYAAl5-4?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-11-03T18:27:29.194508+00:003789@steve_donzeSteve Donzé<p>No matter how extraordinary the post-COVID cycle, the basic lead-lag relationships hold. Fed tightening shrinks valuations first and earnings with a lag. There are differences in degree. 2022 tightening was the largest in decades; 2026's is a rate recalibration.</p>https://x.com/steve_donze/status/21174538449722002990.00102026-11-03T06:21:28.956262+00:002x.comfedsp500stockseconomy3701https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HWKJEgdbAAAz1bx?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-11-03T06:21:29.439195+00:003738https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>Last week, DB estimated that the unwind was already more than two-thirds of the way through a typical rotation. The latest selloff has pushed relative performance to the bottom of its long-term trend channel. </p><p>From that level, the sector has staged five V-shaped rebounds in the past 2½ years.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/d_2C9pku0.00202026-11-02T05:57:13.756981+00:001linkedin.comsp500stockstradingeconomy3629https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHjfSX2Vw6Z-A/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaGYy9tXIgAc-/0/1793564859458?e=1795046400&v=beta&t=gASHEo3myA--1nxDDIRCyl_0Zfvh8V8bgf0HVFBgXmsView image2026-11-02T05:57:15.273437+00:003713@HedgeyeDJJonesy<p>Source: HedgeyeDJ (X)</p>https://x.com/HedgeyeDJ/status/21165421269136838120.00102026-11-01T11:05:37.549805+00:002x.comsp500bitcoinstockstrading3601https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HV932I2XkAA4dOG?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-11-01T11:05:38.978567+00:003498https://www.linkedin.com/in/wei-li-a93561b/Wei Li<p>Ultimately, customers hold the bag; they need to buy enough models and compute to justify the unprecedented spend to produce these, and their productivity breakthrough and new revenues are the “gold” of our AI revolution (see yellow line as a proxy). If the end customers don’t think they could strike gold, they would rethink how much they buy, and that is the engine of the whole AI trade. That’s what I am looking out for this earnings season.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dWvjtDyY0.00202026-10-27T15:19:34.878657+00:001linkedin.comaisp500stockstrading3351https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5610AQHxncXTRDn_9g/image-shrink_800/B56aF9CWNEJ8Ag-/0/1793099130059?e=1793721600&v=beta&t=2j9UEdhc0FbYlnjftpPqk4R-WD9KNUSDvAcSjQlDVmgView image2026-10-27T15:19:36.909484+00:003487@martinjustooMartín Justo<p>Source: Martín Justo (X)</p>https://x.com/martinjustoo/status/21147618817182762730.00102026-10-27T11:53:12.001210+00:002x.comstockssp500trading3340https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HVkkafpWgAAF96U?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-27T11:53:12.439532+00:003381<p>Note: <strong>Excerpted from the original article</strong>: <a href="https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">No Signs of AI Payoff Outside the Tech Sector</a></p><p>Revenue per worker is rising for the Mag 7 but is flat for the S&amp;P 493. Profit margins are rising for the Mag 7 but are flat for the S&amp;P 493. There are still no signs of AI boosting productivity growth. </p><p>With no impact on the bottom line, mainstream corporate America is pulling back and starting to view token spending not as a source of growth but as a cost center that weighs on margins. </p><p>VC-backed companies are spending more and more on tokens, but mainstream corporate America does not need the latest model and is unwilling to pay for it. As long as agentic AI and token spending are confined to a small part of the economy, the macroeconomic effects of AI will be very limited. </p><p>AI does not understand accountability, trust, culture, unwritten rules, ethical trade-offs or fairness, all of which shape reputational risk and ultimately drive revenue growth and profit margins. </p><p>The bottom line is that the AI story will be decided in the S&amp;P 493, not the Mag 7, and so far, there is no evidence that revenue growth or margins are improving outside the tech sector.</p>https://www.apollo.com/wealth/insights-news/insights/daily-spark/no-signs-of-ai-payoff-outside-the-tech-sector0.00202026-10-25T09:52:43.932163+00:0037apollo.comsp500aitradingeconomy3219IMAGE/media/content/3381/20261024-ai-chart1.png20261024-ai-chart1.pngpng2026-10-25T09:57:03.345273+00:003371https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>Source: Charles-Henry Monchau (LinkedIn)</p>https://www.linkedin.com/sharing/compose0.00102026-10-25T06:44:12.891105+00:001linkedin.comsp500stockstrading3207https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGZE2FelJRPcA/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaFuH0W5G8Ac-/0/1792848905936?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=Srg0xDF2yGsp297hGqMGZGXELi-Y7Lxk4qcxptYZ_3cView image2026-10-25T06:44:13.847574+00:003261https://www.linkedin.com/in/jason-lemire-00a61810/Jason Lemire<p>We're also seeing rates pressure ease. 10Y US yield down a full 16bps, while even the 30Y yield was down significantly (-13bps).We're still quite early in earnings season, but early prints are showing weaker beats vs. previous quarters (I'm seeing ~5% earnings surprise for SPX, 1% on sales).</p><p> So far, we've yet to see any signs of a loss of steam in the AI capex trade, though. Meta came out swinging today, with capex expected to be 135bn to 145bn in 2026 (slight increase in low-end), with a whopping 825 billion in future spending commitments. </p>https://lnkd.in/p/dVTy7Azd0.00702026-10-23T04:41:27.360265+00:001linkedin.comsp500stockstrading3104https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQE93ZXf4Sksmw/feedshare-shrink_160/B56aFlY1WXHUAk-/0/1792702371472?e=1794441600&v=beta&t=E492KbrtoEqP9yFPr1sXGEVZ6lsnNYfcnesaQsJW6xcView image2026-10-23T04:41:28.153361+00:003141https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>Source: Kobeissi Letter</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed0.00702026-10-20T13:07:05.806593+00:001linkedin.comtradingsp500stocks2998https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQF89rF90unNHw/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaFU6M.pI8Ag-/0/1792425906371?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=EX7jXCuBOEgDIzOp51LsWymxoma7ySnIsUoMuhSg_LcView image2026-10-20T13:07:07.389325+00:002844@LizThomasStratLiz Thomas<p>S&amp;P 500 forward earnings are up ~38% y/y, which may seem crazy, but South Korea's exports are up 84% y/y! </p><p>The relationship between the two is strong.</p>https://x.com/LizThomasStrat/status/21100310596185337010.00502026-10-14T10:46:05.600166+00:002x.comsp500kospieconomy2664https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUhWENAWkAAuv4b?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-14T10:46:07.410191+00:002584https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIA<p>This is equal to the combined market value of the bottom 434 companies, according to The Compound analysis. </p><p>This means just 5 stocks carry as much market value as the other 434 constituents, highlighting the extraordinary concentration at the top of the index.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dZ2_YTWF0.00802026-10-10T08:47:34.352553+00:001linkedin.comsp500usstocks2406https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGFkDT3LwJCZw/feedshare-shrink_480/B4EaEixQVFGkAk-/0/1791584700032?e=1793232000&v=beta&t=sTTenstMcQQ6tAv06_Zjwk_DyCf1dYksWC5Fs2JVYcUView image2026-10-10T08:47:35.905128+00:002470@ISABELNET_SAISABELNET<p>Source: ISABELNET (X)</p>https://x.com/ISABELNET_SA/status/21081178473188763750.00602026-10-08T15:17:45.703959+00:002x.comearningsspxussp5002283https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUGJ8KZXMAAqzCt?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T15:17:46.740194+00:002441@MarketMikeMike<p>Last time we saw a streak this long? July 2024 (52 days), followed by an 8-10% correction into early August. Before that? Oct 9, 2019 → Jan 24, 2020 (74 days) without a 1% down close, right before the COVID crash. </p>https://x.com/MarketMike/status/21079603178548225260.00402026-10-08T06:28:07.785664+00:002x.comsp500usstocks2249https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUD6RCja4AAwzgZ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-08T06:28:08.041143+00:002428Lee Ying Shan<p>Source: CNBC</p>https://www.cnbc.com/2026/10/07/stock-market-today-live-updates-.html0.00602026-10-08T05:08:42.441460+00:0026cnbc.comusstockssp5002237https://image.cnbcfm.com/api/v1/image/108369467-1790695898141-gettyimages-2297721790-anotherday276803029_y0jj9gxn.jpeg?v=1790696070&w=240&h=180&vtcrop=yStock futures are little changed after S&P 500 retreats from record: Live updates2026-10-08T05:08:42.926163+00:002410@litcapitallitquidity<p>Source: litquidity (X)</p>https://x.com/litcapital/status/21075420468356425780.00402026-10-07T16:01:50.949003+00:002x.comsp500nasdaqus2221https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT9-UoGW4AA51vu?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-07T16:01:51.970896+00:002340@ychartsYCharts<p>US real estate stocks have fallen to their lowest level on record relative to the S&amp;P 500, completely erasing the relative outperformance they built during the early-to-mid 2000s housing boom.</p>https://x.com/ycharts/status/21072112737002458300.00502026-10-06T09:46:18.060129+00:002x.comstocksreal-estatesp500us2160https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT5RfB3XEAAcz8-?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-06T09:46:18.517380+00:002284@CWRoehlChristian W. Röhl<p>This lack of market breadth can be seen as an alarm signal. Or as a short-term reflection of the Bessembinder study: Over the past 100 years, only 46 of 29,000 stocks have accounted for 50% of the total net increase in U.S. shareholder wealth.</p>https://x.com/CWRoehl/status/21068696151878577530.00402026-10-05T13:35:20.325399+00:002x.comstockssp500us2106https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HT0ZWA-WEAA5r5w?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-05T13:35:20.795694+00:002136@PeterMalloukPeter Mallouk<p>Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft represent over 21% of the index.</p>https://x.com/PeterMallouk/status/21060405085860090530.00502026-10-02T16:34:13.436475+00:002x.comsp500nvidiaapple1937https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTa5wnLXcAAlVFO?format=png&name=smallImage2026-10-02T16:34:13.703425+00:001776https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterThe average US stock is struggling. The ratio of the equal-weighted S&P 500 to the S&P 500 index is down to 1.11, its 3rd-lowest level since April 2003.This ratio has declined for 5 consecutive weeks by a total of -5.5%.Over this period, the equal-weighted S&P 500 has fallen -4.4% while the S&P 500 has increased by +0.8%.This also puts the ratio on track for its 4th consecutive annual decline, the longest streak since 1999.By comparison, this metric peaked at 1.60 in April 2015.AI is carrying the entire stock market.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00502026-09-27T05:57:29.573623+00:001linkedin.comsp500stocksai1550https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQGsKyfyfE_vfg/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaDgYiZ0LAAc-/0/1790470924281?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=ELNPKRSBa19sky8JGPzNdcU23dnWpvphxxm5AyQqP18View image2026-09-27T05:57:30.006168+00:001680https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi LetterBREAKING: The S&P 500 rises on reports that talks between the US and Iran have entered a "technical stage," per Al Jazeera.Details include:1. Negotiations in New York have reportedly moved beyond initial diplomatic contacts into a "more detailed technical phase"2. Technical experts joined the discussions in New York after a first meeting involving US envoys Witkoff and Kushner3. Iran's proposed 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US ends its blockade is being discussed as an accelerated version of a previously discussed 60-day process4. Both sides also continue to discuss other arrangements for the Strait of HormuzOil prices are pulling back on the news.https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-25T16:36:45.002146+00:001linkedin.comiransp500oil1475https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFlVtdbjRWDbQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B56aDZWKfyKwAc-/0/1790352861574?e=1792022400&v=beta&t=1XOI3gGxaudeYSflhnj8Krad-v9nsRKWAOqgMEFpy2wView image2026-09-25T16:36:45.406884+00:00848https://www.linkedin.com/in/bastienchenivesse/Bastien C.S&P Price vs. S&P Multiple:The reason why the S&P is so resilient is because of the unprecedented surge in earnings.But the tape bombs and uncertainty have led to a bear market-like derating in stocks.P/E multiples went from 23x at the end of 2024 to 19x now.That's how you see the heightened geopolitical uncertainty (with resulting higher oil prices, higher yields, etc.) gets priced into stocks!"A lot of the earnings are on borrowed money or looped money. Maybe mkt saying its not as repeatable or has risk that it unwinds. -PM NYhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00902026-09-17T04:24:46.541315+00:001linkedin.comsp500sspx727https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQHcDAe-Dge6Kw/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaCap80IIYAc-/0/1789301083634?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=fCS8sPoPujgxWKm0QO3aKvhVGNrCja9rHg41aYdjA2wView image2026-09-17T04:24:46.975613+00:00193https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/The Kobeissi Letter<p>The strength of this market is unprecedented.The S&amp;P 500 has traded for 22 consecutive sessions without a decline of at least -1.0%.Furthermore, the Volatility Index, VIX, has closed at or below 16 points for 18 straight trading days.On Friday, the VIX finished at 14.4 points, its 2nd-lowest daily close since December 2025.This is ~20% below its 1-year average of ~18.0 points.The S&amp;P 500 has now added nearly +$12 trillion in market cap since the March 2026 bottom and stands just ~1.5% below its all-time high.US stocks have been remarkably resilient.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dB87C7mN0.00602026-08-30T11:24:11.564028+00:001linkedin.commarketstockssp500210https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4D22AQHPYqyKsQDHlQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4DaBSFQ_MHgAg-/0/1788083507374?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=t8M65EqoXS1NwvmcOZYyDpc_zmbeJ5vp1bsBuw-VSGwView image2026-08-30T11:24:12.459157+00:00144https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/The Kobeissi LetterUS Treasuries are more hated than ever.Over the last 10 years, the S&P 500 has outperformed US Treasuries by 15 percentage points on average per year, the largest outperformance since the late 1950s.This figure includes stock dividends and interest earned on Treasuries, and is adjusted for inflation.Excluding the 1950s, this is the biggest outperformance by US stocks in financial market history.By comparison, the long-term average since the 1880s is ~5 percentage points.This comes as US Treasuries have delivered an average annual inflation-adjusted return of -3%, their worst performance since the early 1980s.Meanwhile, the S&P 500's average annual real return has been +12% over the same period.The gap between stocks and Treasuries has rarely been wider.https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/posts/0.00602026-08-29T06:03:36.536007+00:001linkedin.comstocksustreasuriessp500154https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQHc4uy_xlvzkg/feedshare-shrink_160/B56aBJHMEAIwAk-/0/1787933016572?e=1789603200&v=beta&t=gpACQ4u-DzgpEslu47C1DbvQk86S0qgtIjfYCPHKh_oView image2026-08-29T06:03:36.952126+00:00