https://gnosly.com/feed/turkey/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms3748@goescarlosCarlos Góes<p>In 2021, the Turkish prime minister came up with an unusual theory that lowering the central bank's interest rate would be necessary to end rampant inflation (then at 20%). He intervened in the central bank and fired directors. </p><p>The central bank lowered the reference interest rates. </p><p><strong>Three things happened</strong>: </p><p>(1) <strong>bank spreads rose</strong>, because the perception of risk increased—so much of the goal of lower interest rates didn't translate into cheaper credit, due to a disconnect between the rates; </p><p>(2) <strong>inflation skyrocketed</strong>, reaching more than 80% per year in 2022—even taking the pandemic into account, a disproportionate increase; </p><p>(3) <strong>in 2025</strong>, <strong>the government had to reverse the policy, and interest rates went above 50%</strong>. </p><p>It's not very different from the proposals emerging to forcibly lower interest rates in Brazil. </p><p>Intervening in the central bank and lowering the interest rate by printing money, which is likely to result in high inflation. </p><p>The effect on growth may be positive in the short term—but if it means an increase in risk and spreads, you end up with higher inflation without a boost to growth.</p>https://x.com/goescarlos/status/21170185605096944030.00202026-11-02T07:52:25.257068+00:002x.cominflationturkeybrazileconomy3639https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HWEpKSEXYAA0vCC?format=jpg&name=240x240Image2026-11-02T07:52:26.571262+00:003640https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HWEpKSBWsAEZ4Lh?format=jpg&name=240x240Image2026-11-02T07:52:26.647001+00:003040@akcakmakEmre Akcakmak<p>Source: Emre Akcakmak (X)</p>https://x.com/akcakmak/status/21120803387261337980.00402026-10-19T08:39:56.829146+00:002x.comindonesiaturkeystocks2879https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU-dhq-aoAAn3O7?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-19T08:39:57.675117+00:002074@EricBalchunasEric BalchunasTurkey wants investors who made a lot of money in market to gift excessive returns to the other investors who lost $20b in funds w ponzi like schemes that are being liquidated. Wow.https://x.com/EricBalchunas/status/21056677498127933700.00502026-10-01T15:44:40.736829+00:002x.comturkeymarketsinvestors1889https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTjVqIAWoAAshlX?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T15:44:40.966119+00:001108https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIAThe "Goldman Sachs of Turkey" just collapsed in 72 hours.Tera Group. 130 employees. A multi-billion-dollar valuation.Stock up ~40,000% since its 2022 IPO.Flagship fund up 17,000%+ since January 2025.Too good to be true? It was.The engine was a loop:→ Tera's funds bought Tera-linked, illiquid stocks→ Prices soared→ Fund NAVs soared→ Retail money poured in→ That money bought more of the same stocksOne fund reportedly once held 99% of its assets in Tera's own shares.Then, in late August, the regulator tightened concentration and related-party limits.Forced buyers became forced sellers.Sept 16: redemptions failed on funds holding ~$7.5bn.Sept 17: ~130 funds (~$18bn) frozen and ordered liquidated. Detentions. Travel bans.The founder blames an "organized speculative attack." Courts will decide.But the lesson needs no verdict:Daily liquidity + illiquid assets + related-party holdings = a run waiting to happen.When a manager sets the price of what it owns, performance isn't alpha. It's reflexivity.And reflexivity works both ways.What's the first red flag you'd have spotted?https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00802026-09-19T11:58:05.414086+00:001linkedin.cominvestingturkeyriskmanagement926https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQGVbOOI2HMONA/feedshare-shrink_480/B4EaC43fiSG4Ag-/0/1789807950342?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=hXzymHUroeBLD3fcS5aKES_a7NxB4uIyxv203Eq5w0kView image2026-09-19T11:58:06.411963+00:001106https://www.linkedin.com/in/charles-henry-monchau-cfa-cmt-caia-4003096/Charles-Henry Monchau, CFA, CMT, CAIATurkey’s stock market is facing far more than a normal correction. The BIST plunged more than 8% this week after a fund manager admitted it could not meet investor redemptions—triggering panic across the industry. Regulators have now frozen and ordered the liquidation of 131 funds worth ₺890 billion ($18.3 billion), affecting roughly 350,000 investors. Several asset managers are accused of using “Ponzi-like” tactics: buying illiquid shares in related companies, inflating valuations and attracting retail investors with seemingly extraordinary returns. When withdrawals reportedly reached $1 billion in a single day, authorities stepped in aggressively: • Margin requirements were cut from 35% to 20% • The sovereign wealth fund began buying blue-chip stocks • Two major banks were tasked with liquidating the frozen funds But intervention can stabilize prices—not validate valuations. The central question remains unanswered: What are these assets actually worth? Meanwhile, the lira is hitting record lows and Turkey’s 10-year bond yield remains above 32%. Stocks, bonds and the currency are now under pressure simultaneously. This is no longer just a market sell-off. It is a full-scale test of confidence in Turkey’s financial system. Source: Bull Theoryhttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-19T11:53:37.094862+00:001linkedin.comturkeyfinancestock-market924https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D4E22AQFAhuH9haxWfQ/feedshare-shrink_800/B4EaC4607pIYAc-/0/1789808824441?e=1791417600&v=beta&t=0y6-BU7yGoSMqbDI5vKajA370uhgWRXknAmceEyufeQView image2026-09-19T11:53:37.362692+00:00897Turkish authorities rush to stem fallout from stock market scandalhttps://www.ft.com/content/ef54585a-4d2f-4538-b185-9bff75ef2f5e0.00402026-09-17T15:13:12.494873+00:0012ft.comturkeyscandalstock-market766https://images.ft.com/v3/image/raw/https%3A%2F%2Fd1e00ek4ebabms.cloudfront.net%2Fproduction%2F1d7c49dc-7c62-4400-a5da-4abfd5495052.jpg?source=next-home-page&dpr=2&width=280&fit=scale-downTurkish authorities rush to stem fallout from stock market scandal2026-09-17T15:13:12.711537+00:00837@macropaperrmacropaperrTurkey 10-year bond yield just hit 32.87%, its highest level in 16 weeks. "GLOBAL BONDAPOCALYPSE."https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21002167737486748130.00402026-09-16T16:15:14.723984+00:002x.comturkeyglobal-bondapocalypsebond-yield717https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSV3RClawAEE36O?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-16T16:15:15.627826+00:00