https://gnosly.com/feed/war/Business Intelligence Console and Prediction Algorithms2997@jaklugeJanis Kluge<p>Source: Janis Kluge (X)</p>https://x.com/jakluge/status/21115870821036159950.00402026-10-18T07:45:25.045704+00:002x.comukraineelon-muskwarstarlink2833https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU3cdXOWkAA1CrF?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-18T07:45:26.283101+00:002995@CrimeanVoyagerUAVoyager<p><br></p>https://x.com/CrimeanVoyager/status/21113906329838552610.00502026-10-18T07:24:19.442037+00:002x.comtrumpukrainewarrussia2829https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HU0qlbBXwAEUYxq?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-18T07:24:20.692659+00:002994<p>Israeli forces have shot and killed a Palestinian girl at al-Maghazi camp in central Gaza, a source at Al-Aqsa Hospital has told Al Jazeera. We will bring you more when we have it.</p>https://aje.news/e9uqrl0.00402026-10-18T07:23:11.945385+00:005aljazeera.comgazapalestinianisraelwar2828https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Breaking-1699362877.svgHouthi2026-10-18T07:23:12.220080+00:002993<p>Israeli forces have shelled the town of Mansouri in southern Lebanon with 155mm-caliber shells overnight, according to Lebanon’s National News Agency. Separately, it said Israeli forces also carried out “massive demolition operation” in the town of Khiam. Both communities lie along Israel’s Yellow Line in Lebanon and have been heavily bombarded since Israel’s latest ground invasion in March.</p>https://aje.news/e9uqrl?update=50574000.00502026-10-18T07:22:49.672965+00:005aljazeera.comlebanonmilitaryisraelwar2827https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/2026-10-08T080758Z_725825727_RC2AUNA85K56_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-CRISIS-LEBANON-PILOT-1792306203.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80Mariam al-Yaghi, 67, Lebanese resident from West Zawtar, stands in her damaged house in southern Lebanon, October 1, 2026.2026-10-18T07:22:49.953785+00:002992<p>The Fishermen’s Committees Union in Gaza says two fishermen have been wounded by Israeli gunfire while working off the coast of Gaza City. The attack comes hours after a Palestinian girl was killed by Israeli gunfire in central Gaza.</p>https://aje.news/e9uqrl?update=50574920.00502026-10-18T07:22:34.207392+00:005aljazeera.comgazaisraelwar-crimeswar2826https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Breaking-1699362877.svg?fit=86%2C20&quality=80Houthi2026-10-18T07:22:36.300071+00:002989<p><strong>Let’s take a look at the rise in attacks:</strong> </p><p>The UKMTO says at least 14 vessels were attacked between October 8 and 14, marking the highest number in one week since the US-Israel war on Iran began. </p><p>At least six ships were hit in a single day on October 11. </p><p>Those attacks have brought the total number of reported maritime security incidents since March 1 to at least 149. </p><p>The number of ships passing through the strait also fell to 42 during the same period, down from 60 the week before. The majority were carrying petroleum products. </p><p>The attacks come as the US naval blockade on Iranian ports continues, with the Central Command saying it has redirected at least 138 ships since renewing the blockade.</p>https://aje.news/e9uqrl0.00802026-10-18T06:48:21.768748+00:005aljazeera.comiranhormuzwar2823https://cf-images.eu-west-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/665003303001/0bb61489-e81f-4d8b-ab6f-37015123dc8b/4481afa7-85ca-43a2-a2f1-f054d828dc21/1920x1080/match/image.jpg2026-10-18T06:48:22.356900+00:002979<p>President Donald Trump is plainly frustrated that the Ukraine War continues to drag on. This is understandable. Trump came into office pledging to end this conflict on day one, and succeeded in resetting the expectations of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Trump also met with Russian President Vladimir Putin in 2025, hoping to bring the war to a close. Yet no peace deal emerged. </p><p>In recent weeks, Trump has complained ceaselessly that the war is impacting global energy prices, and thus indirectly hurting the American economy and damaging Republicans' midterm prospects. </p><p>Earlier this week, the president arbitrarily declared an "energy ceasefire" and instructed both countries to stop targeting each other. Neither side had been given forewarning of this, but Ukraine went ahead and complied; Russia did not. With no actual ceasefire in place, Ukraine resumed hostilities.</p>https://reason.com/2026/10/15/blame-russia-not-zelenskyy-for-the-ukraine-wars-endless-slog/?ref=gnosly0.00702026-10-18T05:02:15.857615+00:0032reason.computintrumpzelenskyywar2810https://d2eehagpk5cl65.cloudfront.net/img/c800x450-w800-q80/uploads/2026/10/Zelensky-800x450.jpgZelenskyy | Press Service Of The President Of Ukraine/picture alliance/SvenSimon-Press Service Of The P/Newscom/spacex.com2026-10-18T05:02:16.823852+00:002977https://www.linkedin.com/in/roman-sheremeta-14972a50/Roman Sheremeta<p>According to russian reports, the following objects were hit:</p><p>* The St. Petersburg Oil Terminal.</p><p>* The VKontakte data center.</p><p>* The 330 kV Vostochnaya electrical station.</p><p>* A major cable-stayed bridge in St. Petersburg.</p><p>* Parts of the region experienced electricity outages and disruptions to water supplies.</p>https://lnkd.in/p/dMQ6Dzpu0.00502026-10-18T04:42:47.160364+00:001linkedin.comrussiaukrainewar2809https://media.licdn.com/dms/image/v2/D5622AQFAajd1qKc47Q/feedshare-shrink_160/B56aFNQuDFGkAk-/0/1792297591209?e=1793836800&v=beta&t=BBU9EZcvL2jKkdxh5KsdLhFJELH6FQ7I9nWrlDK6ULUView image2026-10-18T04:42:47.785119+00:002723<p>Iran’s state-owned Press TV has published its full interview with security chief Mohsen Rezaei online. In the 30-minute conversation, </p><p>Rezaei addressed a range of issues, including diplomacy with the US, the Strait of Hormuz, and threatened strikes on US tech assets in the Middle East if war resumes. </p><p>“The United States has extremely expensive assets in the UAE and around the Strait of Hormuz,” he said. “We have not yet included these assets among our targets. But if war breaks out, many of these cables, data centres, artificial intelligence facilities and numerous other sites will be destroyed.” </p><p>Rezaei described those assets as the “pulse of the American economy in this region” and said they “are worth more than $2 trillion”. </p>https://aje.news/054l75?update=50391270.00602026-10-12T07:28:10.784745+00:005aljazeera.comiranuswar2541https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/2026-07-03T132147Z_995685063_RC2A6MAV1254_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-CRISIS-KHAMENEI-1791784502.jpg?w=770&resize=770,516&quality=80Iran’s security chief Mohsen Rezaei [File: Mohammed Salem/Reuters]2026-10-12T07:28:15.194367+00:002474@macropaperrThe Macro Paper<p> Indonesia, Thailand and Vietnam have already lost 15%-40% of their dollar reserves. India is down roughly $50B, while Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Nepal are also getting hit by expensive energy and weaker currencies. If the war drags on much longer, Asia could be left with very serious problems.</p>https://x.com/macropaperr/status/21081690258766033840.00502026-10-08T15:43:45.820173+00:002x.comwarasiairaneconomy2286https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HUG4jExbwAENQHZ?format=png&name=360x360Image2026-10-08T15:43:46.925605+00:002401<p>Trump being Trump (#TbT)</p>https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/7/iran-war-live-yemen-forces-claim-control-over-strategic-taiz-mountain-peak0.00602026-10-07T09:53:08.068965+00:005aljazeera.comwariranwartrump2035@LeoNelissenLeoGreat job, everyone. When the Iran War started, the 10Y was at 4%.https://x.com/LeoNelissen/status/21055691475810593220.00402026-10-01T08:49:56.305835+00:002x.comiran10ywar1835https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HTh75A9WwAAHxHC?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-10-01T08:49:58.188506+00:001927AJLabsNewly updated Google Maps satellite imagery shows the scale of destruction across the besieged Gaza Strip nearly three years into Israel’s genocidal war. With neighbourhood after neighbourhood reduced to rubble and little left but the faint outlines of main roads, it is now almost impossible to tell one part of Gaza from another. Farmland has been charred, and centuries-old places of worship have been damaged or wiped from the landscape. A recent assessment by the United Nations Satellite Centre (UNOSAT) found that the number of destroyed structures across Gaza has increased by 9 percent since a “ceasefire” took effect nearly a year ago. Overall, about 82 percent of structures in Gaza, roughly 200,000 buildings, have been damaged, and about two-thirds of those have been destroyed, according to the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/30/iran-war-live-trump-claims-war-will-end-very-soon-provides-no-details?update=50004650.01002026-09-30T04:54:43.633369+00:005aljazeera.comgazawarisrael1719https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/INTERACTIVE-Gaza-gif-1790661543.gif?quality=80INTERACTIVE - Gaza gif-17906615432026-09-30T04:54:43.904058+00:001698https://www.linkedin.com/company/the-kobeissi-letter/The Kobeissi Letter<p>President Trump has rejected Iran’s proposal for a 7-day ceasefire and has told aides he expects to begin bombing Iran after the November midterms, per WSJ.Iran’s proposal would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and resumed nuclear talks in return for the US lifting its blockade of Iranian ports.Trump is reportedly skeptical Iran will meet his demands and has told his staff that he sees a renewed bombing campaign as likely.Today marks day 209 of the Iran War.</p>https://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00702026-09-26T07:20:47.317775+00:001linkedin.comirantrumpwar1488IMAGE/media/content/1698/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-26T07:21:16.385378+00:001692Maram HumaidThe partially collapsed roof above Masada Abu Jarad’s apartment is now made up of broken concrete with twisted steel bars protruding from its edges. And underneath the section of the room that is now open to the elements after the building’s partial collapse, Masada’s family have pitched a tent to provide shelter. The 60-year-old knows the structure is dangerous. The Palestinian Red Crescent and the Civil Defence visited the family last week and warned them that they should leave. But in Gaza, where Israel refuses to allow proper reconstruction to take place after almost three years of its genocidal war, there are few places for them to go. “We have no options,” Masada says. “I want to leave, but who will give me an alternative?”https://www.aljazeera.com/features/2026/9/26/nowhere-else-to-go-gaza-families-shelter-in-buildings-that-may-collapse0.00602026-09-26T07:12:29.593111+00:005aljazeera.comgazawarshelter1482https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/873A5273-copy-1790280488.jpg?w=770&resize=770,513&quality=80Gaza’s municipality and Civil Defence have warned residents to evacuate buildings at risk of collapse2026-09-26T07:12:29.986429+00:001554The international benchmark Brent crude has jumped three percent to $106.24 per barrel. The surge came a day after world leaders at the UN General Assembly offered little to suggest progress in ending turmoil in the oil-rich Middle East.https://aje.news/h39n9z0.00502026-09-24T08:59:05.386647+00:005aljazeera.comiranwaroil1538@Panchenko_XDiana PanchenkoUkraine war is the prelude to WORLD WAR. Zelensky rejected Trump’s peace terms and chose to keep fighting. Ukrainians face no electricity, water, heat or comms. Food and fuel are running out. Kids will be left without fathers. Catastrophe is coming… Zelensky’s inner circle looted BILLIONS in Western aid and fled abroad. They have nothing to lose. He wants power and money. There will be no peace.https://x.com/Panchenko_X/status/21029461234344101080.00402026-09-24T07:13:07.848273+00:002x.comwarukrainepolitics1345https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HS8qVszXAAApIiA?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-24T07:13:08.144426+00:001446Iran’s military has dismissed Donald Trump’s threat to “annihilate” the Islamic Republic warning it’s ready to respond with “crushing” attacks far more severe than earlier in the war. In a statement carried by Mehr news agency, Iran’s General Staff accused the US president of using the UN podium at the General Assembly to justify “aggression”. “Such words demonstrate America’s strategic dead end in its aggression against the Iranian nation,” it said. It described Trump’s repeated threats as “not a sign of power but a sign of their strategic desperation”. The statement also warned Iran’s armed forces are ready to deliver strikes against the US and Israel that would be “more crushing and less predictable” than earlier in their war.https://aje.news/st3yz3?update=49770890.00502026-09-23T08:50:20.204482+00:005aljazeera.comirantrumpwar1266https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Breaking-1699362877.svg?fit=86,20&quality=80Houthi2026-09-23T08:50:20.490848+00:001320Usaid SiddiquiAmid the US-Israel war on Iran, the country’s economy has suffered a sharp contraction, with its crucial oil and gas sector taking the biggest hit as the United States tightens its economic and military pressure on Tehran. Data released by the government-administered Statistical Center of Iran showed gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by 10.1 percent year-on-year between March 21 and June 20, the first quarter of the Persian calendar. The period covers the opening months of the US-Israel war on Iran, which began on February 28. The economic downturn has come as Iran struggles to export its oil, one of its most important sources of foreign currency, while also contending with high inflation, a weakening rial and disruptions to trade and industry. Read more here.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/21/how-oil-gas-losses-have-shrunk-irans-gdp-by-10-percent-during-war0.00902026-09-22T04:57:58.808352+00:005aljazeera.comiranwareconomy1160https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/explainer-1699362886.svg?fit=109%2C20&quality=80Explainer2026-09-22T04:57:59.351576+00:001161https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/epa_6ab0e85b3c47-1789978715.jpg?w=770&resize=770%2C513&quality=80People shop at a bazaar in southern Tehran, Iran, on September 14, 20262026-09-22T04:57:59.427280+00:001311At least four Palestinians were killed and 17 wounded in Israeli attacks over the past 24 hours in Gaza, the Health Ministry says. It said in its daily bulletin one of the victims died of previous wounds while three bodies were recovered from the rubble of destroyed buildings. Since a ceasefire took effect on October 11, 2025, the ministry puts the death toll at 1,394 with 4,839 wounded and 834 bodies recovered. At 73,914 Palestinians have been killed in the Gaza Strip and 174,952 wounded since Israel’s genocidal war began in October 2023, according to the ministry.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/21/iran-war-live-tehran-warns-us-against-new-strikes-fighting-rages-in-yemen?update=49703740.00402026-09-21T12:16:58.535960+00:005aljazeera.comgazawarisrael1298@RepMikeLevinRep. Mike LevinMr. President, Ukraine is trying to win a war. Why do you insist on hampering its efforts at every turn to defend its country and preserve its sovereignty? Your actions are helping Russia. They are helping Russia sustain its wartime economy and bankroll its attacks on civilian infrastructure and the slaughter of innocent Ukrainians. In the early hours of Wednesday, ABC reported that “a Russian drone struck a passenger bus in southern Ukraine, killing five people and wounding at least seven.” Attacks on civilians and civilian infrastructure have become a regular occurrence. Yet instead of putting greater pressure on Russia to stop these attacks, you are pressuring Ukraine to stop striking Russian oil refineries. How do you sleep at night?https://x.com/RepMikeLevin/status/21017704747621869910.004512992026-09-21T05:15:47.310985+00:002x.comwarrussiaukraine1296@Glenn_DiesenGlenn DiesenSlovakia’s PM warns that we may be on the brink of war with Russia. He argues that many European leaders are compensating for socio-economic problems at home by stoking war rhetoric. He also expresses concern that we no longer talk about peace, only war.https://x.com/Glenn_Diesen/status/21015876432470428220.00502026-09-21T05:05:38.990309+00:002x.comeuropewarpolitics1141IMAGE/media/content/1296/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-21T05:06:29.086742+00:001217@TheStudyofWarInstitute for the Study of WarNEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences. The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian MoD also tried to deny Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction by presenting an inaccurate picture of the battlefield that denies the ample evidence provided by Russian milbloggers, Ukrainian sources, and geolocated footage. The Russian MoD’s claims likely aim to shape Russian voters' perceptions of the war during the ongoing State Duma elections as well as the perceptions of foreign governments that support Ukraine. Ukrainian forces extensively targeted Russian drone operators as part of their battlefield-shaping effort that enabled Ukrainian drone overmatch prior to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. The US Department of State approved on September 18 the sale of air defense equipment worth $2.68 billion to Ukraine. US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the eastern Fortress Belt and Oleksandrivka directions, while Russian forces recently advanced in the southern Fortress Belt direction. Russia launched two Zirkon anti-ship missiles and 174 drones and loitering munitions at Ukraine overnight.https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/21015004827494075110.00402026-09-20T12:21:05.397918+00:002x.comwarukrainerussia1063https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHii-XAAA-8rd?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:21:05.638886+00:001064https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjEaW8AA2YKg?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:21:05.665152+00:001065https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjMvXkAA0jrU?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:21:05.691149+00:001066https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjWDXUAAuXlS?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:21:05.724500+00:001216@TheStudyofWarInstitute for the Study of WarNEW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences. The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. Other Key Takeaways: The Russian MoD also tried to deny Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction by presenting an inaccurate picture of the battlefield that denies the ample evidence provided by Russian milbloggers, Ukrainian sources, and geolocated footage. The Russian MoD’s claims likely aim to shape Russian voters' perceptions of the war during the ongoing State Duma elections as well as the perceptions of foreign governments that support Ukraine. Ukrainian forces extensively targeted Russian drone operators as part of their battlefield-shaping effort that enabled Ukrainian drone overmatch prior to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. The US Department of State approved on September 18 the sale of air defense equipment worth $2.68 billion to Ukraine. US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the eastern Fortress Belt and Oleksandrivka directions, while Russian forces recently advanced in the southern Fortress Belt direction. Russia launched two Zirkon anti-ship missiles and 174 drones and loitering munitions at Ukraine overnight.https://x.com/TheStudyofWar/status/21015004827494075110.00602026-09-20T12:20:17.338666+00:002x.comrussianwarukraine1059https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHii-XAAA-8rd?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:20:17.571254+00:001060https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjEaW8AA2YKg?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:20:17.597234+00:001061https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjMvXkAA0jrU?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:20:17.628649+00:001062https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSoHjWDXUAAuXlS?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:20:17.666915+00:001215@DefenceUDefense of UkraineOur long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night. One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican. I thank our warriors for their accuracy: the Security Service of Ukraine together with the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Special Operations Forces, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, and the Foreign Intelligence Service. Sanctions were also imposed on a facility in the Voronezh region. Moscow must end its brutal war and choose peace instead of building layered rings of air defense at the expense of other regions. Steps toward de-escalation are on the table – in energy and food security. What is needed is political will. I thank everyone who is strengthening Ukraine’s long-range capabilities. I am grateful to everyone who complements our long-range responses with responses through sanctions. Glory to Ukraine!https://x.com/DefenceU/status/21015884743525829730.00802026-09-20T12:18:04.451574+00:002x.comdefensewarukraine1058IMAGE/media/content/1215/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-20T12:18:27.960627+00:001209@TheEconomistThe EconomistVladimir Putin believes Russia is at war with Europe. His armies are already well-practised in asymmetric drone warfare, and they are learning all the time. Europe, by contrast, is unpreparedhttps://x.com/TheEconomist/status/21016022808730298720.003512102026-09-20T12:09:37.805844+00:002x.comeuropewarpolitics1208@euromaximalEuroMaximalist"Why would Russia attack Europe?" I've this question being asked many times recently as the scenario becomes increasingly likelier. Some genuinely don't understand why Russia would do something seemingly so stupid. But others ask it as a propaganda technique. A way to diminish the threat. To either shrug it off as irrelevant or, even worse, to discredit the idea of a European counterattack. So I think it's time to properly answer this question, in as raw and plain terms as possible so that those who don't understand the issue come to understand it, and those who are knowingly or unknowingly helping Russia have no more room to lie. The following read may cause you some anxiety, but it's also a necessary read. When we talk about a Russian attack on Europe, we're not talking about a large scale invasion like WW2 or Ukraine. Not yet. We are talking about smaller scale attacks and limited incursions against Europe. These could be anything ranging from drone or missile strikes on infrastructure to small groups of undercover troops trying to occupy small settlements. Russia has already conducted such attacks to some degree. All across Europe there have been drone incursions, missile threats, bombs planted and critical infrastructure mysteriously blowing up. But because these have largely been ineffective, Putin may feel like he has no choice but to up the ante. The first myth we need to clarify is that Putin and Russia are irrational. That they would attack Europe simply because they are crazy. But while there is madness, there is also logic behind it. And the logic is simple. Russia attacks when it thinks the cost is manageable and the reward is achievable. That's what happened in Ukraine. They thought they could take it and face only limited consequences. But Ukraine proved far stronger than predicted, European support was bigger than expected, global sanctions were heavier than manageable, and the Russian army was worse than imagined. The calculus with Europe is similar. Russia predicts that such an attack against Europe would carry a manageable cost and an achievable reward. But what could that possibly be? If Russia attacks Europe and Europe does not respond, or does not respond in equal measure, NATO will be dead. Europe will be discredited. Support for Ukraine will crash, allowing Russia to win the war. Or at least not lose it. The worst part is that this rationale is logical, even if it is mad. It's possible European governments are bluffing and won't seriously respond. It's possible public outrage at a European response is so big it makes it political untenable. And because it's possible, it might happen. It is no doubt a risky move. Perhaps suicidal. But Russia does not share your risk model. And Russia is in a desperate position: a collapsing economy, catastrophic war losses, dwindling public support. This only makes an attack more likely. The wave of sabotage across Europe has not reduced European support for Ukraine. Political division has not stopped it. The threat of war has not broken European will. In Putin's mind, there might not be another way to prevent defeat. To save himself. Despite surprisingly high support for Ukraine, Putin has also spent years watching the opposite across Europe: slow military expansion, delayed weapons, arguments over every investment, fear of “escalation,” and politicians who treat defence as a budget line instead of a matter of survival. If you tell an adversary for a decade that you are too rich, too comfortable, and too morally complicated to fight, do not be shocked when he treats that as an invitation. Any attack will exploit these problems. The point is not immediate occupation of the continent. The point is to prove that Europe will not act as one, that Article 5 is a slogan, and that Washington may conclude that a limited European war is not worth the cost. This is why the question “Why would Russia attack Europe?” is such a powerful propaganda tool. It is a way to keep Europe from building the only thing that actually deters the attack: military capability and the political will to use it without waiting for permission. If the threat is declared irrational, then preparation looks hysterical. If preparation looks hysterical, Europe stays weak. Weakness is then what Russia exploits. Deterrence can not come from just a speech. It must come as the visible capacity to make the next Russian gamble more expensive and painful than the last one. So the simple answer is this: Russia would attack Europe because it thinks it can get away with a version of an attack that Europe is psychologically and materially unprepared to face. Because it wants a veto over the continent’s future. Because a maximal Europe is the one way to make Russia stop mattering. Those who pretend not to understand this are not confused. They are making the attack more likely.https://x.com/euromaximal/status/21014125135899650560.00902026-09-20T12:09:09.359256+00:002x.comeuroperussiawar1045https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSm2jElWMAAx-Ka?format=png&name=smallImage2026-09-20T12:09:10.150904+00:001184Mohamad Elmasry, a professor at the Doha Institute for Graduate Studies, says the Houthis’ targeting of Saudi Arabia’s capital is “significant” but it doesn’t mean the fighting is about to escalate. “I think this is a warning shot from the Houthis to say to the Saudis we have the potential to shut down your entire oil industry,” he told Al Jazeera. The US joining the war against Yemen’s rebels is “unlikely although I wouldn’t rule it out, especially the longer this goes on”, he added. “My sense is the United States doesn’t want to get tangled up in another war front right now,” Elmasry said, adding it’s also not likely other Saudi allies will intervene militarily. “The Saudis are kind of stuck. They’ve reached out to numerous allies. Allies are producing some measure of support – logistics support, intelligence, weapons – but it doesn’t look like the Pakistanis or the Turks or the Egyptians or the Americans, or anyone else, wants to get directly involved in kinetic military action,” said Elmasry. “The Houthis have been very clear from the start that they are not planning to shut down Bab al-Mandeb to anyone except the Saudis. So I would be surprised if there’s some significant deployment.”https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/20/iran-war-live-tehran-calls-for-end-to-war-lifting-of-us-naval-blockade?update=49670740.00902026-09-20T08:17:41.066070+00:005aljazeera.comsaudi-arabiawarmiddle-east1024https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/Analysis-1699362873.svg?fit=101,20&quality=80Analysis2026-09-20T08:17:42.148371+00:001183The incident occurred after an undetonated weapon exploded in the town of Dabaal in Tyre district. The wounded child was transferred to a nearby hospital for treatment as authorities started an investigation in the area, according to the official National News Agency. At its highest point in April, more than 1.2 million people were displaced by Israel’s military assault and occupation of Lebanon. Today, the figure stands at about 330,000, according to estimates by the International Organization for Migration (IOM). Israeli attacks have killed more than 4,380 people and wounded thousands of others.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/20/iran-war-live-tehran-calls-for-end-to-war-lifting-of-us-naval-blockade0.00702026-09-20T08:17:34.281952+00:005aljazeera.comlebanonwarisrael1023https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/11/AP24315498226089-1732017628.jpg?w=770&resize=770,513&quality=80Ivana Skakye, 2, a Lebanese child who is suffering from third-degree burns over 40 percent of her body following an Israeli airstrike last September near their home in Deir Qanoun al Nahr, a village in south Lebanon, raises her burned arms as she lies on a bed at the Geitaoui hospital where she is receiving treatment, in Beirut, Lebanon, Tuesday, Oct. 29, 2024. (AP Photo/Hussein Malla)2026-09-20T08:17:37.789538+00:001168Iyad Al-QatrawiA handful of electronic components, a few wires and a basic programmable circuit board are enough to bring a group of curious children around a table in central Gaza to learn about robotics. Before the war, students had access to schools, universities, incubators and training programmes to pursue an interest in technology. With much of that infrastructure now destroyed or damaged during Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza, there are few places and tools for students to work with. But their interest in robotics and will to learn are helping them maintain their skills and ambitions for the future, something they hope will help when the bombs stop falling on Gaza.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/20/iran-war-live-tehran-calls-for-end-to-war-lifting-of-us-naval-blockade?update=49667170.00902026-09-20T06:07:36.831419+00:005aljazeera.comgazawartechnology1002https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/4-1-1789814430.jpg?w=770&resize=770,578&quality=80Engineer Bahaa Al-Masry during a training workshop for children on control and alarm systems and manufacturing robots, using simple electronic tools and equipment [Iyad Al-Qatrawi/Al Jazeera]2026-09-20T06:07:37.431697+00:001155Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei tells Al Jazeera that Tehran has conveyed its conditions for resuming talks to the White House through Qatari mediators. He says the demands include an end to the war on all fronts, the release of frozen Iranian assets and the lifting of the US naval blockade on Iranian ports.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/20/iran-war-live-tehran-calls-for-end-to-war-lifting-of-us-naval-blockade0.00602026-09-20T05:35:35.773570+00:005aljazeera.comiranwartalks982https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/2026-09-19T114800Z_1100229945_RC28MNAOL58F_RTRMADP_3_IRAN-CRISIS-SAUDI-YEMEN-1789861786.jpg?resize=730%2C410&quality=80Large plume of black smoke rises from the fuel storage area at King Khalid International Airport, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, September 19, 2026.2026-09-20T05:35:36.733515+00:001137https://www.linkedin.com/in/ahmedshihabeldin/Ahmed Shihab-EldinJPMorgan told clients this week it no longer has a baseline view of the oil market. "We simply don't know how to model the endgame." Chevron says the buffers are gone. The Fed raised rates into month seven and doesn't project a cut until 2028. Diesel is at a record. Everyone whose job is to price reality has priced this war as permanent. The only institution still calling it a temporary disruption is the one that started it.Full essay in the comments. THE WAR IS NOT TEMPORARY · 5 pageshttps://www.linkedin.com/feed/0.00902026-09-19T16:32:55.604216+00:001linkedin.comwareconomyoil-market969IMAGE/media/content/1137/image.pngimage.pngpng2026-09-19T16:33:37.537114+00:001130The death toll from Israel’s genocidal war on Gaza has risen to 73,910, nearly a year after a so-called “ceasefire” took effect. The number of injured now stands at 174,914, according to figures published by Gaza’s Health Ministry on Saturday. Thousands of Palestinians are believed to remain buried under the rubble. Researchers expect that the death toll from the assault, which is ongoing, will exceed 100,000 once all victims are accounted for. A study published in November by the German-based Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research estimated that 100,000 people were killed in Gaza during the first two years of the genocide. Israel launched its siege of the enclave on October 8, 2023.https://aje.news/52lgdn0.00802026-09-19T16:29:57.252751+00:005aljazeera.comgazawarceasefire962https://cf-images.eu-west-1.prod.boltdns.net/v1/static/665003303001/61345acc-d50a-41b6-841a-1b77e028f222/02670030-7bc9-40f0-8d71-a1187fd4f09f/1920x1080/match/image.jpg2026-09-19T16:29:58.041683+00:001128We have more for you from our interview with Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council. He spelled out Iran’s conditions for ending the war, naming them as “the end of the war on all fronts, the release of frozen assets and the end of the naval blockade”. As we reported earlier, he said the conditions had been communicated to the US via mediator Qatar and that a response from President Trump is awaited. Rezaei also said that Iran seeks an end to the war between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis, adding that he believes that the Houthis also seek an agreement with Saudi Arabia.https://aje.news/52lgdn?update=49656820.00502026-09-19T16:29:35.675152+00:005aljazeera.comiranwarsecurity1125Iran’s security chief Moshen Rezaei tells Al Jazeera conditions for ending war – stopping attacks on all fronts, release of frozen Iranian funds, end of blockade – have been sent to US via mediator Qatar, and are awaiting a response from US President Donald Trump.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/19/iran-war-live-trump-extends-sanctions-on-iran-houthi-supporters-in-sanaa0.00302026-09-19T16:29:26.633990+00:005aljazeera.comiranuswar1121@GermanosPeterPeter Germanos 𐤐𐤕𐤓𐤗<p>🚨 Europe's War Preparations Reach an Alarming Level Measures that would have been unimaginable just a few years ago are now spreading across various parts of Europe: Finland (Ukraine 2.0) • Raised the military reserve age to 65 years • Working to build a reserve force approaching one million people Estonia • Building shelters, trenches, and anti-tank barriers along its border with Russia and participating in the creation of the new "Baltic Defense Line" Latvia • Building fortifications, barriers, and military positions along the borders Lithuania • Building fortified defensive sites near Russia and Belarus Poland • Offered to host NATO nuclear weapons • Seeking to build an army and reserve system totaling 500,000 people • Planning to train up to 100,000 reservists annually • Considering mandatory military training for all adult men • Building the "Eastern Shield" project, which includes fortifications, surveillance systems, anti-drone defenses, and the potential to create minefields Germany • Conducting an inventory of subway stations, tunnels, parking garages, and basements that can be used as bomb shelters • Aiming to provide shelter capacity for about one million people • Registering young people and assessing their conditions in preparation for possible call-up to military service • Preparing to move hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and equipment eastward in the event of a major war Sweden • Sent citizens a booklet titled "If Crisis or War Breaks Out" Denmark • Expanded military conscription to include women • Increased the length of military service from four months to eleven months France • Issued general survival guidelines including storing emergency supplies, radio communications, and radiation protection precautions • Encouraging citizens to join reserve forces and civil defense organizations Britain • Reviving what are known as government "war books" • Integrating military, civilian, industrial planning, and infrastructure and services planning • Preparing to conduct a national internal defense exercise • Enhancing protection of energy, water, communications systems, and undersea cables • Planning to handle cyberattacks, fuel shortages, and supply chain disruptions • Facilitating the recall of former military personnel, possibly up to age 65 • Increasing production of weapons, drones, and ammunition European Union • Advising some 450 million people to keep enough food, water, medicine, cash, and emergency supplies for at least 72 hours • Building strategic reserves to counter chemical, biological, radiological, and nuclear emergencies When several countries are simultaneously working to expand conscription, recall older soldiers, equip shelters, reinstate landmines, study hosting nuclear weapons, and teach civilians how to survive in wartime, one unavoidable question arises: What do the European governments know, or what do they fear and not fully tell their citizens?</p>https://x.com/GermanosPeter/status/21010823164790335200.01402026-09-19T12:27:38.495828+00:002x.comeuropemilitarywar947https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f6a8.svg🚨2026-09-19T12:27:38.975620+00:00948https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1eb-1f1ee.svg🇫🇮2026-09-19T12:27:39.010163+00:00949https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1ea-1f1ea.svg🇪🇪2026-09-19T12:27:39.030730+00:00950https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1f1-1f1fb.svg🇱🇻2026-09-19T12:27:39.048234+00:00951https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1f1-1f1f9.svg🇱🇹2026-09-19T12:27:39.063380+00:00952https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1f5-1f1f1.svg🇵🇱2026-09-19T12:27:39.083792+00:00953https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1e9-1f1ea.svg🇩🇪2026-09-19T12:27:39.106748+00:00954https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1f8-1f1ea.svg🇸🇪2026-09-19T12:27:39.126307+00:00955https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1e9-1f1f0.svg🇩🇰2026-09-19T12:27:39.157550+00:00956https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1eb-1f1f7.svg🇫🇷2026-09-19T12:27:39.176746+00:00957https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1ec-1f1e7.svg🇬🇧2026-09-19T12:27:39.211238+00:00958https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/svg/1f1ea-1f1fa.svg🇪🇺2026-09-19T12:27:39.248455+00:001072@Megatron_ronMegatronBREAKING: 🇬🇧 The UK government wants the British to prepare for war — BBC The UK government wants all of it’s citizens to start preparing for severe disruption to their lives It wants them to stockpile canned food and drinking water, strengthen their civic resilience, and plan for the possibility of warhttps://x.com/Megatron_ron/status/21008663411086336950.00402026-09-18T16:25:41.916151+00:002x.comukwarbbc902https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSfGy3xacAA_6V8?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T16:25:42.150097+00:00903https://pbs.twimg.com/media/HSfGy30a8AA3ybJ?format=jpg&name=smallImage2026-09-18T16:25:42.185964+00:00994@HormuzLetterThe Hormuz LetterBREAKING: Trump says he is approaching "a major turning point in the war with Iran" and has "a big decision coming up," in a new interview with Axios. Pentagon officials say "US forces are prepared for the possibility of all-out war against Iran," and US officials say the military cannot stay in its current holding pattern much longer. Trump adds "Do I want to go in and annihilate them or do I not?" and "anything could happen with me." "At some point, you have to decide what is the endgame," one official said, coming just hours after JPMorgan said it no longer knows how to model an endgame of the war and the global economy.https://x.com/HormuzLetter/status/21007001459482708020.00502026-09-18T04:06:03.841592+00:002x.comirantrumpwar963US President Trump says he is facing a choice on whether or not to “annihilate” Iran, adding that “anything could happen”, before reiterating his claim that he is in touch with Tehran officials on a potential deal to end the war.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/17/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-nearing-end-of-war-claims-tehran-direct-talks?update=49605700.00302026-09-17T19:10:14.365915+00:005aljazeera.comiranuswar888As geopolitical conflict disrupts global supply, commodities brokers and traders are reaping profits.https://www.wsj.com/0.00402026-09-17T15:10:42.219255+00:0023wsj.comwarcommoditiesenergy760https://images.wsj.net/im-93333275?width=288&height=192Barrels of Sake and Rooftop Galas: Energy Traders Toast the War Boom2026-09-17T15:10:42.633885+00:00859Yashraj SharmaUnited States President Donald Trump’s administration is preparing to sell 60,000 highly destructive, 2,000-pound (907kg) bombs to Israel in a multibillion-dollar package which will be funded by American taxpayers. US media has reported that the Trump administration has approved the sale, which features some of the most destructive munitions in Western arsenals, and has informally notified Congress. This is one of the biggest US munition packages to Israel and comes after nearly three years of genocidal war on Gaza, ongoing pogroms by Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank and a mighty assault on southern Lebanon – which together have killed tens of thousands and displaced millions in the region. It also comes as the US’s own munitions stockpile has been depleted due to its war on Iran, with the crisis worsened by Russia’s war on Ukraine. So, what bombs are the US sending to Israel, and what can Israel do with them?https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/9/17/iran-war-live-trump-says-us-nearing-end-of-war-claims-tehran-direct-talks?update=49579680.00802026-09-17T05:28:36.915934+00:005aljazeera.combombswarisrael737https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/2023-12-04T110336Z_896420382_RC2P34A28JZ0_RTRMADP_3_YEAR-END-ISRAEL-PALESTINIANS-1703365513.jpg?resize=770%2C513&quality=80Palestinians search for casualties amid deep craters filled with broken concrete and twisted metal, after Israeli air strikes on the Jabalia refugee camp in the northern Gaza Strip, on October 31, 20232026-09-17T05:28:37.227573+00:00813@TomthunkitsMindTomthunkit™SAUDI ARABIA’S ENTIRE OIL INFRASTRUCTURE & INDUSTRY IS BEING DISMANTLED IN REAL TIME. NO MATTER IF THE WAR ENDED TOMORROW, IT WILL TAKE YEARS TO REBUILD. SO, THE 2nd LARGEST OIL PRODUCER WILL BE OUT OF BUSINESS FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. THANK YOU MR TRUMP FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER. In an ongoing ballistic missile attacks, Yemen has struck Jeddah, Taif, and Jizan areas of #SaudiArabiaSignificant damages have been reported. King Fahd airport was struck twice too. Multiple cities have been alerted for missile attacks. For the first time since the start of the war, Sanaa targets Yanbu port with dozens of ballistic missiles, taking it out of service in the meantime Yanbu port is one of the most important Saudi ports, with approximately 7,000,000 barrels of oil exported daily through it to the worldhttps://x.com/TomthunkitsMind/status/20997322366773456580.00802026-09-16T11:59:36.167788+00:002x.comwaroilsaudiarabia585<p>Iraq has ordered the closure of the Shalamcheh border crossing with Iran as a precautionary measure after drones launched from Iraq targeted the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia. Iran used a Chinese satellite image to carry out its July attack that killed three US soldiers on a base in Jordan, according to The Wall Street Journal. Clashes have been reported between Iranian security forces and an armed group in Saravan, according to Iran’s Tasnim news agency. Israeli forces carry out dawn raids in several West Bank towns, searching civilian homes and deploying through refugee camps. Bahrain has condemned the drone attack on Saudi Arabia’s East-West oil pipeline.</p>https://aje.news/g041so?update=49419180.00402026-09-12T07:00:13.800785+00:005aljazeera.commiddle-eastwarlive375Rising prices and opposition to war may pressure Trump to de-escalate until after the midterms, analysts say.https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/9/4/iran-war-why-us-midterms-could-be-a-pivotal-moment0.00402026-09-04T13:34:43.986963+00:005aljazeera.comwarpoliticsexplainer348https://www.aljazeera.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/09/afp_6a99cb71a370-1788463985.jpgUS Vice President JD Vance speaks during a news briefing.2026-09-04T13:34:45.348694+00:00