Gnosly Feed - weather

Forecast: GFS model shows a shot of cold from 19 to 25 November

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 17:33:25 +0000

Source: BAM Weather (X)

The warmest month on average in a super nino in relation to average is December. The European weather model ensemble shows a pattern not seen before.

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 16:45:17 +0000

Source: BuffaloWeather (X)

OPINION: This winter forecast: Median precipitation: 35" in San Francisco; 24" in Los Angeles. ❄️ Denver: 6 feet of snowfall.

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 11:31:45 +0000

Source: RyanWeather (X), using ECMWF model

Winter Forecast: This year, the winds from the east started blowing early, which means both the polar vortex and the Siberian high-pressure system will have a very strong impact on Eastern Europe, Russia, Turkey, and America.

Fri, 13 Nov 2026 09:06:21 +0000

Source: Yusuf Özdemir (X)

El Niño Updates - 22 OCT data

Sun, 25 Oct 2026 13:27:38 +0000

Source: ClimateDad77 (X)

Nearly one in five people worldwide are estimated to be at high risk from climate hazards.

Sat, 17 Oct 2026 09:19:55 +0000

The new PARCH map lets you explore where exposure to floods, droughts, heatwaves, and cyclones overlaps with poverty and other vulnerabilities.

Historic global overheating over the next 6 months. We are entering the climatic unknown, very clearly.

Fri, 16 Oct 2026 09:23:28 +0000

Source: Chems Météo (X)

El Niño: 8 out of 10 models predict that this event will reach a peak strength of 4°C, most likely in December.

Tue, 13 Oct 2026 17:07:01 +0000

That represents an enormous reservoir of anomalous heat in the equatorial Pacific, significantly raising the potential for extreme weather in the U.S. this winter.

December El Niño anomaly projected to peak near +4°C

Sun, 11 Oct 2026 06:49:46 +0000

The October runs for dynamical El Niño models are now all out, and its a mixed bag. Some revise the event downward, some upward, but on average its still expected to peak at ~4C, albeit with the peak more likely to occur in December than November:

Dozens injured and buildings damaged as tornadoes hit Sicily

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 11:53:58 +0000

Marsala on the island’s west coast was badly affected after a powerful storm approached from the Mediterranean.

Two tornadoes have struck the coastal town of Marsala in western Sicily, injuring dozens of people, damaging buildings including a school, and overturning cars.

Dozens of people were reported injured, with at least 11 taken to hospital after being struck by flying debris and shattered glass. Among the most seriously injured was a 70-year-old man admitted to Mazara del Vallo hospital in a critical condition with several fractures.

Isaias weakens to Category 1 hurricane after Florida landfall, NHC says

Sat, 10 Oct 2026 10:14:45 +0000

Isaias weakens to Category 1 hurricane after Florida landfall, NHC says

How climate change affects extreme weather around the world

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 16:16:35 +0000

Source: CarbonBrief (X)

The new October forecast for Winter 2026/2027 is in, keeping the Super El Niño on pace to reach record strength.

Thu, 08 Oct 2026 07:45:17 +0000

The new October forecast for Winter 2026/2027 is in, keeping the Super El Niño on pace to reach record strength. In the latest long-range data, much of the United States is trending colder and snowier, while Canada and the northern U.S. stay on the mild side. Europe looks mild and wetter overall, with the best snow chances in the north and at higher elevations. There's also an interesting Polar Vortex signal pointing to a potentially more active second half of winter. You can also check the latest month-by-month outlook maps for your own region in the new Winter Explorer.

This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncha...

Wed, 07 Oct 2026 04:27:41 +0000

This year's El Niño continues its climb into uncharted waters; Niño3.4 region anomalies are now at a 3.4C above normal (how fitting!), higher than any prior El Niño event on record. September monthly Niño3.4 anomalies also set a record at 2.9C (beating 2015 and 1877's 2.75C).

In just nine short months, we went from La Niña to one of the strongest El Niños ever observed.

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 18:51:41 +0000

Just astonishing.

Here's what this year's El Niño looks like next to the three strongest that came before it.

Sun, 04 Oct 2026 04:45:26 +0000

What stands out to you?

The strongest El Niño on record alongside extreme ...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 09:01:44 +0000

The strongest El Niño on record alongside extreme tropical North Pacific warmth will bring a serious U.S. flood threat this fall and winter. By November, an unusually strong subtropical jet stream will likely emerge, fueling a moisture-rich storm track that lasts for months.

Strongest El Niño in world history Global temperat...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 09:00:37 +0000

Strongest El Niño in world history Global temperatures at unprecedented levels Category 5 Hurricanes spawning everywhere Floods, droughts, heat domes, bomb Nor'easters "Ominous and foreboding" Omens and harbingers of our "climate fueled" present and future

Translated from French After the morning coolness,...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 08:52:13 +0000

Translated from French After the morning coolness, it will be hot this afternoon with a summery feel. The 30°C mark will once again be exceeded in Nouvelle-Aquitaine, the hottest city could be Bordeaux with nearly 32°C, and possibly 34°C tomorrow

With Super El Niño it seems a year without winter ...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 07:38:58 +0000

With Super El Niño it seems a year without winter is inevitable. But if there's any hope of flipping the script it's more of the two week forecast, a super hero or villain of its own, an über Ural block triggering #cold & snow across Siberia & my favorite a stretched #PolarVortex

Translated from French Absolutely no cooler period...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 07:00:06 +0000

Translated from French Absolutely no cooler period is in sight; early October could be quite hot given the location of the high- and low-pressure centers. This is very worrying!

Environmental conditions are looking pretty favora...

Wed, 23 Sep 2026 06:56:39 +0000

Environmental conditions are looking pretty favorable for a big hurricane just off the coast of Mexico next week. With an anticyclone overhead and a favorable trough interaction, along with above average SST, I think we have a setup that's ripe for potential rapid intensification. Definitely something to watch in both Baja California and mainland Mexico.

“What is happening in the equatorial Pacific is ja...

Tue, 22 Sep 2026 05:16:32 +0000

“What is happening in the equatorial Pacific is jaw-dropping and could well mark one of the biggest global weather upheavals in a millennium,” said Prof Bill McGuire in the Guardian on Tuesday The hyper El Nino continues to obliterate records

The key El Niño monitoring region, Niño 3.4, has r...

Wed, 16 Sep 2026 06:19:02 +0000

The key El Niño monitoring region, Niño 3.4, has reached 3°C above average and is just 0.02°C from the all-time record. This event is now on the verge of becoming the strongest El Niño ever recorded.

This is now getting absurdly serious with the El N...

Tue, 08 Sep 2026 09:00:38 +0000

This is now getting absurdly serious with the El Niño. The latest OSTIA SST data now has a peak anomaly of 8.1C above normal, with Peru reporting a peak SSTA of 9.5C. What's more concerning is that these anomalies are only going to increase over the next 10+ days, as the latest ECMWF forecast is predicting a peak of 12.5C right off the coast of Peru. As I said earlier, this is setting up to be the most impactful El Niño since record-keeping began in 1950. Also can't wait for the new C3S model ensemble to come out by around September 10th, as I'm sure the wet signal across the west & south will be bonkers.

El Niño will peak around 4°C in December, accordin...

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:56:38 +0000

El Niño will peak around 4°C in December, according to brand new ECMWF seasonal guidance. After months of increasingly intense forecasts, predictions have finally leveled off — but at a record-smashing level.

A very strong El Niño ≠ same impacts everywhere. I...

Sat, 05 Sep 2026 13:55:45 +0000

A very strong El Niño ≠ same impacts everywhere. Its effects vary according to location and season and can be modified by other climate drivers. WMO’s Global Seasonal Climate Update shows a more refined picture of expected conditions. 🔗 https://bit.ly/4zUk77Y

Introducing WeatherNext 3️⃣— our most advanced glo...

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:19:57 +0000

Introducing WeatherNext 3️⃣— our most advanced global weather AI model yet from @GoogleDeepmind and @GoogleResearch With prediction capabilities that are up to 5x sharper than WeatherNext 2, the model generates a forecast with high spatial resolution in order to catch

WeatherNext 3 is a major breakthrough in how we fo...

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:13:57 +0000

WeatherNext 3 is a major breakthrough in how we forecast global weather. ⛅ Developed with @GoogleResearch, the model learns directly from real-world, real-time observations to give more localized highly accurate predictions faster. 🧵

Our team just released WeatherNext 3, the best glo...

Fri, 04 Sep 2026 05:13:55 +0000

Our team just released WeatherNext 3, the best global weather model currently available (benchmark: https://owb.brightband.com). WN3's high resolution, hourly forecasts are more useful than ever. You can access them anywhere on Earth via Weather Lab: https://deepmind.google.com/science/weathe…

Introducing WeatherNext 3, our most advanced and a...

Thu, 03 Sep 2026 17:17:56 +0000

Introducing WeatherNext 3, our most advanced and accurate global weather AI model to date, from @GoogleDeepMind and @GoogleResearch. This new forecasting model learns directly from real-time observations, and uses raw satellite data to produce a forecast every hour in high resolution. These breakthroughs mean it can provide timely and more localized predictions, bringing even more reliable forecasts across Google products worldwide, including Search, Gemini and Maps.