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Source: Boring_Business (X)

In 2021, the Turkish prime minister came up with an unusual theory that lowering the central bank's interest rate would be necessary to end rampant inflation (then at 20%). He intervened in the central bank and fired directors.

The central bank lowered the reference interest rates.

Three things happened:

(1) bank spreads rose, because the perception of risk increased—so much of the goal of lower interest rates didn't translate into cheaper credit, due to a disconnect between the rates;

(2) inflation skyrocketed, reaching more than 80% per year in 2022—even taking the pandemic into account, a disproportionate increase;

(3) in 2025, the government had to reverse the policy, and interest rates went above 50%.

It's not very different from the proposals emerging to forcibly lower interest rates in Brazil.

Intervening in the central bank and lowering the interest rate by printing money, which is likely to result in high inflation.

The effect on growth may be positive in the short term—but if it means an increase in risk and spreads, you end up with higher inflation without a boost to growth.

Sultan al-Jaber, CEO of the Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC), says the world’s energy buffers have eroded since the launch of the US-Israel war on Iran, with nearly one billion barrels of oil drained from global inventories.

Al-Jaber told an energy conference in Abu Dhabi that shipping and logistics costs have surged to more than 30 percent of the cost of a barrel of oil, compared with 5 percent before the war.

He added that diesel stocks in some markets have fallen to 35-year lows for this time of year. “This new reality means we need expanded strategic storage and flexible refining capacity closer to consumer markets,” he said.

But the change could be much more profound.

AI is beginning to solve mathematical problems that had remained open for decades, raising a fascinating question: what happens when machines can discover things that humans themselves struggle to comprehend?

At the same time, producing research is becoming easier and easier, but that does not guarantee its quality.

We could be entering a stage in which our ability to generate scientific results advances faster than our ability to understand and verify them.

Another ATH, and ASML is gaining share. $35B+ annual run-rate for top-5 semicap DRAM equipment revenue in 3Q26.

KLA, for example, expects 60% of its process control revenue to come from memory (mostly DRAM), up from 30%+ in 2026.

Israeli forces have shelled the towns of Mansouri and Majdal Zoun, and fired machine guns at the Al-Hujair and Al-Salouqi valleys, in the Tyre district, according to the National News Agency.

The daily attacks come despite a US brokered ceasefire between the governments of Israel and Lebanon in June.

Israeli forces continue to occupy about six percent of Lebanese territory, launching attacks and systematically demolishing homes. Some 329,686 people remain displaced inside the country, according to the UN.

“So there is a need for a deal that opens the strait, lifts the blockade, and ends this war. Even though the Trump administration is trying to make the case that the strait is sufficiently open, that does not have to be a major point of the negotiations,” Parsi told Al Jazeera. “I think the data shows clearly that that is not the case,” he said. He added that the more the US claims the waterway is open, “the more they have incentivized the IRGC to strike against ships and try to make as many headlines as possible about how difficult it is to get through the strait”.

Source: Ken Kuang (LinkedIn)