A strong draw on European gas storage is expected over the coming months. End-of-winter fill rates are expected to be at 23% in our base case. A cold winter would bring stocks as low as 17%, with Germany and Netherlands dragging down the European average. These levels are at the very low end of the historic range, undercut only once in 2018.
❄️ Weather remains the dominant driver of gas demand. Cold conditions can add over 400 TWh of incremental gas demand to Europe over this winter.
⚓ LNG can absorb only parts of additional cold winter demand. Pipeline supplies are nearly maximized. Storage picks up the slack and falls into increasingly tight territory under extreme weather conditions. Expect price volatility during Q1 ’27 as a consequence. 💲 The strong drawdown on gas storage implies a shift of price risks towards 2027 contracts. We are bullish for most of 2027 as market prices are not yet fully factoring in the need for a strong refill program of gas storage during summer 2027.
EU gas storage stood at just 72% on October 1st, a record seasonal low, with Germany at 58%, the Netherlands at 59%, France at 84% and Italy at 87%. Meanwhile, Natural gas prices have surged nearly +200% since February, topping €100 per megawatt-hour in late October. In effect, Europe's energy import bill has increased by more than €127 billion
Even under the most favorable projection, storage is expected to fall below the 30% end-of-winter buffer by March 2027. Notably, colder weather and tight LNG supplies could push reserves toward the critical 11% threshold.
Several crew injured after tanker struck by projectile, says UK maritime authority
The UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO) agency says it received a late report of a tanker being struck by an unknown projectile whilst travelling eastbound in the Gulf on Tuesday. “Multiple casualties were sustained and have been taken ashore for medical assistance,” the UK maritime authority said in a statement. “All remaining crew are safe and accounted for,” it added.
Cumulative productivity growth since 2016: US vs. Australia
Source: AvidCommentator (X)
The 400 richest Americans pay 1.3% of their net worth in taxes each year. Middle earners pay 4% to 7%. The result is a lower quality of life for society and lower life expectancy, as these taxes fund health care, roads, and social services.
Source: Noah Gift @ Pragmatic AI Labs
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Source: GreekAnalyst (X), citing OECD report
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Trading: TTF Natural Gas Hits 103, Gaining Nearly 5% on Tight Supply
The European gas benchmark extends its rally into critical pre-winter delivery periods as structural storage deficits materialize.
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