China is betting big on electrification—and rightly so. But electrification only works if one generates more affordable electricity, not less. From 2000 to 2025, China’s electricity generation grew nearly 8-fold, from 1,356 TWh to roughly 10,583 TWh. In the same period, Germany’s generation fell about 12% (569 → ~500 TWh). The UK’s declined from 377 TWh to ~292 TWh.
How exactly do Germany and the UK plan to electrify transport, heating, and industry while producing less electricity? Rationing? Import dependence? Demand destruction?
NVIDIA analyst sentiment just hit -2.6σ, the most bearish on record. Four weeks ago, the narrative was "AI supercycle." Now it's "dot-com bubble." Bitcoin sells off with risk assets, but it bounces when liquidity comes back, usually before earnings do. Extreme bearishness often signals the end of selling, not the start.
Source: ki_young_ju (X)
In Germany, labor productivity per hour rose just 12.2% from Q2 2011 to Q2 2026, vs. 29.5% in the US. One reason for the widening gap: German job creation in recent years has been concentrated in public services, where productivity gains are harder to achieve than in industries such as manufacturing. The mix of jobs matters, not just the number.
Source: HolgerZ, Bloomberg
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