Gnosly

So far in 2026, they dumped -¥5.18 trillion, or -33.0 billion, the biggest sale for this period of the year since 2022. This comes as Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen by more than +80 basis points this year, making domestic bonds increasingly attractive and encouraging investors to redirect capital toward the home market.

Meanwhile, foreign investors bought +¥1.45 trillion in Japanese long-term bonds this week, marking their 3rd consecutive week of purchases. Rising bond yields in Japan are making foreign bonds and equities less attractive to Japanese investors.

• Debt/GDP: France ~116%. India ~85%.

• Nominal GDP growth: France ~2%. India ~8.9%.

• France govt spending as % of GDP60%

• India govt spending as % of GDP30%

When a richer country’s weaknesses are treated as manageable, while a faster-growing country’s strengths are treated as insufficient, the methodology deserves scrutiny

Source: CNN, Admiral James Stavridis Interview

Key Takeaways: So we don't have an oversupply of compute; that still remains scarce, but we may end up with an oversupply of data centers. See the chart from Semianlaysis, which is forecasting something similar to play out

1. The obvious is that the price of old GPUs remains elevated and continues to go higher, as the supply of available compute to buy gets squeezed even further. Which, by the way, the number of entities now looking to buy GPUs is expanding with the proliferation of open-source models. This should be bullish for some Neoclouds, but also potentially bearish, as some of these Neoclouds who thought they were going to build out x amount of GWs next year will no longer have the chips to do it

2. NVIDIA margins hold strong into 2028, and everyone locked out of Nvidia allocation gets pushed to Plan B: AMD, Google TPUs, Amazon's Trainium. The issue is all of these are also already sold out... so I guess their margins increase too?

3. Yes, of course this remains bullish for memory as it means many enterprises will be locking in GPU and chip deals into 2028, since many won't be able to get an allocation in 2027.

4. READY POWER becomes the thing that wins allocation from chip providers. Nvidia is literally shipping containerized racks that go live in 14 days. If chips are rationed, they flow to whoever can energize the fastest. So powered, pre-leased data centers become even more valuable

5. One of the things that concerns me however, is that we have plenty of Data Center shells being built right now. But a company is only going to rent it if they can get GPUs to put inside it.

- CoreWave: $35.6B debt vs. $5.5B cash. Bonds yielding 15%.

- ORACLE: $23.7B negative free cash flow.

- Cipher Digital INC: $6B debt vs. just $832M cash.

- Applied Digital Corp: $36.2B in contracts, but only $451M of it lands in FY27.

Source: BeanResearch (X)

Source: Lin (X)

Note: Excerpted from the original article: China's Sinking Profits

Pessimism has gripped Chinese stocks, with no end in sight for a deepening selloff as investors confront the realities of an economy that’s weak enough to erode corporate profits but not to trigger forceful new stimulus.

• Pessimism has gripped Chinese stocks, with the world’s second-largest equities market losing $3.5 trillion in value from a peak in May.
• A protracted consumption slump and the race-to-the-bottom mentality among businesses are taking a heavier toll on earnings across industries.
• The consensus 2026 earnings forecasts for the MSCI China Index members have declined by over 4% since the end of March, with companies missing consensus forecasts by an average of 9%.

Source: MikeZaccardi (X)