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New from Ramp data: the latest threat to the AI trade. AI companies' revenues are heavily dependent on a small set of customers. 80% of OpenAI and Anthropic's enterprise revenues come from 1% of their customers, and it's not getting better.This is a level of concentration risk unseen in any other software category we track. The companies in the top 1% skew heavily toward the tech sector and AI products and services. What happens in a market correction? All these companies are highly correlated, and an increasing share of our economy is invested in them. Especially as we approach blockbuster IPOs for OpenAI and Anthropic.The latest from Ramp AI Index: ramp.com/data/ai-index

BREAKING: ~54% of goods and services in the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) basket have recorded price increases of more than 3% over the last 12 months, near the highest proportion in 3 years.This metric has surged +16 percentage points since Q1 2025.By comparison, the 2022 peak was ~77%, while the 12-month average is ~37%.However, this percentage remains significantly above the ~32% average seen in the 20 years before the 2020 pandemic.To put this into perspective, during the 2012-2019 period, this figure never materially exceeded 30%.The fight against inflation is far from over.

USD/JPY reached the mid-155 level for the first time since early August. However, given that even actual FX interventions in April and July failed to push the pair sustainably below 155, the bar for a sustained and meaningful appreciation of the yen remains quite high.A key driver behind the recent yen strength appears to be a shift in market sentiment. US Treasury Secretary Bessent's remark in a CNBC interview on 31 August that "I have information the market does not have" attracted considerable attention. This was followed by a New York Times report suggesting that, during the G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors Meeting, he expressed concerns to Finance Minister Katayama regarding fiscal policy and central bank independence, although Japanese officials later denied the report. The episode fuelled speculation that some policy adjustments could eventually emerge in Japan, prompting investors to unwind crowded short-yen and short-JGB positions.Expectations for further BOJ tightening also strengthened. On 2 September, BOJ board member Takata suggested that both consecutive rate hikes and larger rate increases could become policy options. The following day, Bloomberg and Jiji Press reported that a September rate hike had become increasingly likely and that the BOJ was willing to consider a faster pace of normalisation thereafter. At the same time, comments from New York Fed President Williams were interpreted as slightly reducing the likelihood of additional Fed tightening. Together, these developments reinforced expectations of a narrowing US-Japan rate differential and supported further yen buying.Investors have also focused on the possibility of FX intervention or rate checks, despite the lack of concrete evidence that either has occurred. At the same time, speculation over GPIF's policy portfolio review and a possible increase in domestic asset allocations has strengthened the repatriation narrative and added to yen-buying momentum.That said, caution remains warranted regarding the outlook for USD/JPY. The BOJ is still likely to proceed carefully, balancing inflation risks against the impact of higher rates on domestic economic activity. In that sense, there remains a significant gap between market expectations and the degree of hawkishness the BOJ may ultimately be willing to deliver. Furthermore, higher oil prices stemming from the conflict involving Iran and the resulting deterioration in Japan's trade balance continue to represent structural headwinds for the yen.Moreover, a broad unwind of yen carry trades could destabilise global markets and weigh on both US equities and Treasuries. In that sense, both Japanese and US authorities are likely to prefer a gradual adjustment in USD/JPY rather than a disorderly appreciation of the yen. The recent move may therefore be better interpreted as a correction of excessively bearish yen positioning rather than the beginning of a sustained stronger-yen trend. #JPY #Japan #BOJ